Transcript ***** 1 - Climate Wikience

Discovery of synoptic patterns of climate variability and change
using data mining and high performance computing
Climate Wikience:
A Summary of Results
P.I.
Prof. Averin G.V.
Speaker
Prof. Bashkov E.A.
Ideas, Architect, Slides
Rodriges Zalipynis R.A.
Developers
Zapletin E.A.,
Melnykov A.I.
Donetsk National Technical University
Ukraine
The Wikience Concept
Let’s “create” new analysts!
Usually domain experts have a solid
background on the subject. They will
perform very well without computer
scientists, even if equipped with much
simpler tools. They know what to seek
and how to seek. Many active experts
are currently uninvolved, especially
operational professionals.
Wikience
Originates from Wiki + Science
Wikience – international pronunciation
rather than wiki science
Wiki science – already reserved – is the
study of how the phenomenon of wikis, and
free, open collaborative works in general
(like free software and open source), are
growing, changing and adapting.
http://en.wikiversity.org/wiki/Wiki_science
Reanalysis archives
Interpolate all available data by statistical and
numerical methods on regular latitude-longitude grid
Reanalysis archives
Pioneer, released in 1996 • NCEP/NCAR 2
NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 • ERA-40, ERA-15
• ERA-Interim
1949 – present
• JRA-25
2.5 x 2.5 grid
• NOAA-CIRES 20CR
Applications
• NASA MERRA
From simple warming
• NCEP CFSR
trends to validation of
climate models
Over 9 000 publications reference
Kalnay et al., The NCEP/NCAR 40-year
reanalysis project, BAMS, 77, 437-470, 1996.
Visualization is vital for data understanding
and perception
Is it?
University of Melbourne (Australia)
Visualization is vital for data understanding
and perception
Is it?
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA)
Visualization is vital for data understanding
and perception
Is it?
Improving the Accuracy of Mapping Cyclone Numbers and
Frequencies, 2010 by O.Zolina and S. Gulev (Russia)
Wikience
4D isopleths
• 1st in the
world
• real-time
• closed
polygons
(GIS)
• all TBs of
reanalysis
data on-line
KEY
GRAPHICS
FOR
CLIMATE
RESEARCH
Obstacles for wide data accessibility
Vast amounts of data (TBs)
1996 NCEP/NCAR ~ 4 TB
2010 NCEP CFSRR ~ 100 TB
Real-time technology for thousands of users
How to maintain all available data on-line?
Scientific formats
Convert data to new representation?
Need to keep metadata intact
Invent new schemas to import metadata into?
3D visualization technology
No open algorithms for isopleths, are they?
ChronosServer
Turns vast amounts of existing data into
actionable intelligence
Rodriges Zalipynis R.A. ChronosServer: real-time access to “native” multiterabyte retrospective data warehouse by thousands of concurrent clients.
Informatics, cybernetics and computer engineering, pp. 151–161. Vol. 14 (188) –
Donetsk: DonNTU — 2011. – 391 p.
Atmospheric major components: cyclones
Areas of low
pressure
(simple
definition)
Seen as
several
closed
isobars
nested in
each other
Climate is changing
along with cyclones
Cyclone importance
• heat transition from tropics to the poles
• define local weather
• local winds
• severe weather events
• pollution situation
key drivers of climate change
How to research cyclones? – Track
Initial
In a day
Sharing “active” research data
4D Cyclone paths
• 1st in the world
• real-time
Others can:
• verify tracks
• interactively analyze
• use in own research
Remote Sensing: Terra MODIS
• 36 spectral channels
• Daily frequency
• Global coverage
MODIS L3 product
• Global 1º×1º grid
• Over 600 datasets
(clouds, water vapor,
aerosol properties)
Terra
MODIS:
Cloud
Optical
Thickness
Tropical Cyclones
Hurricane Katrina
IBTrACS
International Best Track
Archive for Climate
Stewardship
• 1842 – present
just a picture
• multiple characteristics
• the most complete
August 23 – 30, 2005
280 km/h highest wind
1,833 fatalities
$108 billion damage
IBTrACS:
Hurricane
Katrina
NOT just a picture
Hurricane
Katrina
(IBTrACS)
and
Cloud Optical
Thickness
(MODIS L3)
August 28,
2005
Near peak
strength
Simply
select &
watch
Analysis tools
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by Award No.
UKM1-2973-DO-09 of the U.S. Civilian
Research & Development Foundation
(CRDF). Any opinions, findings and
conclusions or recommendations
expressed in this material are those of
the authors and do not necessarily
reflect the views of CRDF.
DNTU Computer Cluster
• Hybrid GPU-CPU
• 32 CPU cores
• 2 688 GPU cores, CUDA
• 7 Teraflops
• 35 TB HDD
• 1 Gbit/sec local network
• 1 Gbit/sec Internet band, optic fiber
• 10 KW power supply
Donetsk National Technical
University
Global Models
Databases in
knowledge
domains
Wikience
Data mining
Donetsk National Technical
University
Development of human potential
Database fusion:
World bank
http://data.worldbank.org
UN Development Program
http://www.hdr.undp.org
Economical Forum
http://www.weforum.org
Data mining:
Multidimensional scaling
Donetsk National Technical
University
Planet Biodiversity
Database fusion:
(Databases of animal and
plants)
GIS-models for areals of
biological species spread
(150 - 200 thousands of main
animal and plant species)
Climate reanalysis archives
Donetsk National Technical
University
Data mining: world countries development indicators
Population with age
before15
Children's
mortality
Fertility
Tuberculosis rate
Internet users
Governmental
debt service
Donetsk National Technical
University
Data mining: world countries development - energy
Country’s rate
according to
development rate
Development
index
Country’s
rate
Norway
63138
2
6
USA
35043
10
16
Germany
18045
22
53
Poland
9155
50
49
Russian
15658
33
22
Ukraine
9108
51
42
China
3500
91
65
India
1385
115
95
Nigeria
305
138
126
Country
Donetsk National Technical
University
ЕЕА and DNTU: System for ecological monitoring
of Donetsk region – English version
Discovery of synoptic patterns of climate variability and change
using data mining and high performance computing
Climate Wikience: A Summary of Results
wikience.donntu.edu.ua
Contact address: [email protected]
Please, reference materials taken from this presentation as
Rodriges Zalipynis R.A., Averin G.V., Zapletin E.A., Melnykov A.I., Bashkov E.A., Climate Wikience:
A Summary of Results, Minneapolis, USA, 2012. Web:
wikience.donntu.edu.ua/rodriges/publications/rodriges_CRDF_2012.pptx