Transcript Document

ENSEMBLES Kickoff Meeting
Hamburg - September 2004
RT6 Assessments of impacts of climate change
Andy Morse, University of Liverpool - WP6.3
([email protected])
Colin Prentice, University of Bristol - WP6.1
([email protected])
Tim Carter, Finnish Environment Institute (SKYE) - WP6.2
([email protected])
RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg
September 2004
WP6.1 Global changes in biophysical and biogeochemical processes
– integrated analysis of impacts and feedbacks.
Leader: UNIVBRIS Participants: UREADMM, PIK, ULUND, METO-HC,
CNRS-IPSL
WP6.2 Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios of climate change
Leader: SYKE, UEA Participants: UREADMM, ULUND, UKOELN, NOA,
DISAT, PAS, FMI, SMHI, UNIK, DIAS
WP6.3 Impact modelling at seasonal-to-decadal time scales.
Leader: UNILIV. Participants: UREADMM, ARPA-SIM, JRC-IPSC,
METEOSWISS, LSE, FAO, WINFORMATICS, IRI, EDF, DWD.
27 partners & 11 countries - 141 months in first 18 - total budget €1,962,000
RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg
September 2004
The end-to-end approach
the role of impacts/application partners
Consultation with impacts groups from the conception of the project and input to
ongoing decision making
Defining fields and interval for data archiving (within reason)
Each impact or application (model) will have a required level of skill from the
probabilistic driving variables to make forecasts of economic value
Therefore impacts/application users will define skill targets for probabilistic
forecasting systems and carry out an important part of the final validation
Impacts/application partners should develop their models, where possible, to
make use of ‘skill-in-hand’ of current probabilistic seasonal forecasting systems
RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg
September 2004
RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg
September 2004
The integration of process models of impacts on the natural
and managed global environment into Earth System Models.
Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios of climate
change.
Maximizing skill in the impacts models driven by seasonalto-decadal scale forecasting.
RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg
September 2004
WP6.1 Global changes in biophysical and biogeochemical
processes – integrated analysis of impacts and feedbacks.
Work towards fully integrated European- and global-scale assessments of the
impacts of changes in CO2 and climate on vegetation structure, function and
productivity, forest and arable crop productivity, terrestrial carbon cycling and
freshwater supply
Consider the potential for feedbacks from these changes to the atmosphere and
climate.
18 month activity
To set up the input data
Model developments for (a) global implementation of managed forests, and (b)
global implementation of crops.
Perform first set of offline model runs for the recent past, present and future.
RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg
September 2004
WP6.2 Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios
of climate change. Five Year Overview
Modelling behaviour of systems or activities in different environments
developed, tested and applied under European conditions for evaluating the
potential impacts of climate change.
Task 6.2.a
Response surfaces and impact thresholds.
Task 6.2.b
Scenario impacts and risk assessment
Task 6.2.c
Evaluating the impacts of extreme events.
18 month plan
first phase of testing climate extremes models – wind, flood, drought etc.
Preparation of impact response surfaces for climate change scenarios against
baseline data
RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg
September 2004
9 RCMs ~50km … A2
2 RCMs ~25km … A2
3 RCMs ~50km … B2
2 GCMs
RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg
September 2004
WP6.3 Impact modelling at seasonal-to-decadal time scales.
* Activity starting in first 18 months
Maximizing skill in the impacts models driven by seasonal-to-decadal scale
forecasting.
Closely tied to WP5.5 – Tier-1, Tier-2 and Tier-3 validation
Development of Integration Methodology includes downscaling and bias
correction (working with other RTs)
Downscaling and bias correction for ensemble hindcasts *
Integration of seasonal-to-decadal application models within an EPS
(DEMETER)*
Assessment of GCM vs. RCM driven seasonal-to-decadal application models.
Gaining the maximum skill from an EPS seasonal-to-decadal scale integration
Quantification of EPS skill requirements at seasonal-to-decadal timescales for
RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg
application models.
September 2004
WP6.3
from Morse et al. 2004,
CLIVAR Exchanges
RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg
September 2004
Issues and Linkages arising within RT6
• Timely and easy access to data – already in discussion RT1, RT2a,
RT2b, RT3 and RT5
• Effective use of downscaling tools – already in discussion with RT2B,
RT3 and RT2a
•RT5 for validation – with WP6.3 and WP5.5 directly linked
• Interest in RT4 findings
• RT7 economic impacts
RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg
September 2004