Transcript Kick-off_meeting_WP1_Reiner

TOCSIN
Work Package 1
David M. Reiner
Judge Business School
University of Cambridge
Implementing Technology and
R&D in Economic Models
• Implementation of technology-based
policies and representation of RD&D
policies in modeling frameworks is often
limited by the structure of the models and
the simplifications necessary to represent
such policies.
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NOT induced or endogenous
technical change
• We seek to explicitly model the effects of a
parallel or complementary approach to
developing technologies using funds from
general government revenues that have been
earmarked to speed the development and
penetration of low-carbon technologies.
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RD&D Spending:
BAU or a Quantum Leap?
• Even conservatively, total spending by the major
world economies (EU, US, Japan) will be on the
order of billions of euros per year. Public and
private expenditures in this area have increased
dramatically over the last few years and recent
political attention.
• Beyond merely extrapolating current policies, one
can imagine ‘crash’ programs, equivalent to Airbus,
or moon or Mars missions or a Marshall Plan
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Bringing Technologies out of the
Laboratory
• We will explore the other considerations
which allow technologies to move beyond the
pilot and demonstration stages and explore the
economic, political and business requirements
for successful commercialization
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International Collaborations
• There have been a number of international consortia
launched in recent years including the CSLF, IPHE,
Gen IV Forum, M2M, EOS as well as the broader
Asia-Pacific effort
• Will these initiatives cannibalize support for more
aggressive actions by diverting resources and
political attention away from a legally-binding
targets-based regulatory approach or rather will they
facilitate tougher actions by making steeper
reductions less costly to implement?
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Developing Scenarios
• We seek to develop a range of plausible scenarios that
can capture the range of options that are likely to affect
technology transfer to major developing countries.
• A major focus will be on technologies such as CO2
capture and storage (CCS) that can exploit existing
indigenous coal resources in China and India, as well as
on transfer of advanced production and end-use
technologies based on renewable or low carbon energy.
• We will survey existing avenues for RD&D cooperation
and contemplate alternative designs to support
cooperation and transfer of advanced technologies.
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Links to other WPs
• The link between effective RD&D and
successful commercialization and policy
implementation will be investigated as well as
the potential impact on developing country
participation in an emissions reduction
regime. Scenario development will involve
interactions with the other workpackages, to
ensure overall consistency.
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Survey of existing literature
• Task leader: UCAMB
• Review existing literature on post-2012
climate change policy architectures and R&D
cooperation; multi-criteria analysis of
alternative policy options (economic
effectiveness, environmental integrity,
feasibility, acceptability and equity)
• Commented bibliography plus comparative
analysis of international environmental
policies
• Draft by End May
2007
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Identify R&D strategies
• Task leader: UTSIN
• Explore different pathways by which RD&D
cooperation might occur including multilateral
arrangements
such
as
the
Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM), the Global
Environment Facility (GEF), and the World
Bank, bilateral arrangements (e.g., recent
US-India or UK-China agreements), and via
foreign direct investment by individual firms.
• Draft by End Jan 2008
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Evaluate RD&D Cooperation
as a Policy Instrument.
• Task leader: FEEM
• The links between RD&D cooperation and mitigation
policy will be questioned.
What sorts of
arrangements and circumstances are more likely to
take best advantage of RD&D investments? The
potential for successful RD&D to alter emissions
trajectories will be investigated by tracing how
innovation can translate into commercially viable
technologies that achieves significant market
penetration
in
capital-constrained
emerging
economies.
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• Draft by End Jan 2008
Analyze the incentive role of
CDM and IET
• Task leader: IIMVA
• The role of CDM and international
emission trading to create incentive for
developing countries’ participation in
mitigation
strategies
and
R&D
cooperation will be explored.
• Draft by End Jan 2008
• Final Deliverable 1.2 Month 16
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Propose a set of policy options
for long-term climate mitigation
and RD&D cooperation
• Task leader: UCAMB
• WP 1 will propose a set of policy strategies including: policy
instruments, level, timing and regional coverage of GHG
emissions reductions that will drive model developments in
WP 2 and WP 3, and that will be assessed in WP 4 and
WP 5.
• Identify possible linkage between RD&D strategies and
market instruments for climate change mitigation
• Draft by End Nov 2007
• Final Deliverable D1.3 Month 16
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Report on Policy Implications of
Simulation Results
• Propose EU-China-India technology-oriented
climate policy options
• Based on insights from simulations executed
in WP4 and WP5, it will provide policy
recommendations for self-enforcing RD&D
and technology cooperation agreements
• Draft due by Jan 2009
• Final Deliverable 1.4 Month 28?
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Sample Scenarios/Options
• Technology Burden Sharing (and Transfers)
• Renewable Portfolio Standards (maximize
deployment of renewables rather than low-C)
• Capture Ready (lower retrofit costs)
• Invest in Breakthrough Technologies (model
low probability of large reduction in carbon
intensity of electric or transport sector)
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Preliminary Questions
• Focus on Which Post-2012 scenarios?
• How to model technology cooperation? (which
types of technology and which cooperative
efforts?)
• How to determine the time lag associated with
technology transfer?
• Balance of sectoral emphasis (e.g., electric sector
vs transport vs. industrial)?
• How to model end-use change or changes in
consumer behavior?
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Timeline
• Regular telecons to discuss challenges of
implementing different options and scenarios in
the economic modeling frameworks
• Drafts of individual tasks under WP1 will
require sufficient time for refinement and
interaction with all partners
• Need for a meeting at 6 months?
• Milan meeting to finalize options and scenarios
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