Transcript ENSEMBLES_RT6_general_intro_Morse

ENSEMBLES Meetings
RT3 Copenhagen, RT4/RT5 Paris,
February 2005
RT6 Assessments of impacts of climate change
Andy Morse, University of Liverpool - WP6.3
([email protected])
Colin Prentice, University of Bristol - WP6.1
([email protected])
Tim Carter, Finnish Environment Institute (SKYE) - WP6.2
([email protected])
RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and
RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings
WP6.1 Global changes in biophysical and biogeochemical processes
– integrated analysis of impacts and feedbacks.
Leader: UNIVBRIS Participants: UREADMM, PIK, ULUND, METO-HC,
CNRS-IPSL
WP6.2 Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios of climate change
Leader: SYKE, UEA Participants: UREADMM, ULUND, UKOELN, NOA,
DISAT, PAS, FMI, SMHI, UNIK, DIAS
WP6.3 Impact modelling at seasonal-to-decadal time scales.
Leader: UNILIV. Participants: UREADMM, ARPA-SIM, JRC-IPSC,
METEOSWISS, LSE, FAO*, WINFORMATICS, IRI, EDF, DWD.
* FAO are unlikely to participate due to UN/EU contract problems
27 partners & 11 countries - 141 months in first 18
- total 5 year budget €1,962,000
RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and
RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings
The end-to-end approach
the role of impacts/application partners
Consultation with impacts groups from the conception of the project and input to
ongoing decision making
Defining fields and interval for data archiving (within reason)
Each impact or application (model) will have a required level of skill from the
probabilistic driving variables to make forecasts of economic value
Therefore impacts/application users will define skill targets for probabilistic
forecasting systems and carry out an important part of the final validation
Impacts/application partners should develop their models, where possible, to
make use of ‘skill-in-hand’ of current probabilistic seasonal forecasting systems
RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and
RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings
RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and
RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings
RT6 Primary Areas of Investigation
6.1 The integration of process models of impacts on the
natural and managed global environment into Earth System
Models.
6.2 Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios of
climate change.
6.3 Maximizing skill in the impacts models driven by
seasonal-to-decadal scale forecasting.
RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and
RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings
RT6 Primary Objectives
O6.a: Integrate impact process models ENSEMBLES Earth System Models.
O6.b: Impact models to describe system sensitivities through critical thresholds.
O6.c: Link impact models to ENSEMBLES probabilistic scenarios for risk-based
estimates critical thresholds exceedance during 21st century.
O6.d: Impact models and new ENSEMBLES climate scenarios – understand
impacts of extremes.
O6.e: Drive impact models with ENSEMBLES ESM and RCM output to give
impacts forecasts at seasonal-to-decadal scale timescales at regional scales.
RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and
RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings
Scientific/Technical Questions
• Downscaling and bias correction implementation for impact models integration within EPS
• Maximizing skill of the ensemble forecast driven application models e.g. role of ensemble
dressing of EPS?
• What level of forecast skill is required make a skilful impact model forecast?
• Attempt to quantify the sensitivity of agriculture, ecosystems and hydrology to future
climate change in terms of thresholds
• Can we estimate the probability of exceeding these thresholds?
• Incorporation of probabilistic scenarios of climate change into probabilistic impact analyses.
• Impacts of extreme events compared with impacts of more frequent less extreme events
-tested for a range of sectors and activities.
RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and
• Impacts of combined biophysicalRT4/RT5
and biogeochemical
feedbacks within the EPS
Feb 2005 Meetings
RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and
RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings
WP6.1 Global changes in biophysical and biogeochemical
processes – integrated analysis of impacts and feedbacks.
Work towards fully integrated European- and global-scale assessments of the
impacts of changes in CO2 and climate on vegetation structure, function and
productivity, forest and arable crop productivity, terrestrial carbon cycling and
freshwater supply
Consider the potential for feedbacks from these changes to the atmosphere and
climate.
18 month activity
To set up the input data
Model developments for (a) global implementation of managed forests, and (b)
global implementation of crops.
Perform first set of offline model runs for the recent past, present and future.
RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and
RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings
WP6.2 Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios
of climate change. Five Year Overview
Modelling behaviour of systems or activities in different environments
developed, tested and applied under European conditions for evaluating the
potential impacts of climate change.
Task 6.2.a
Response surfaces and impact thresholds.
Task 6.2.b
Scenario impacts and risk assessment
Task 6.2.c
Evaluating the impacts of extreme events.
18 month plan
first phase of testing climate extremes models – wind, flood, drought etc.
Preparation of impact response surfaces for climate change scenarios against
baseline data
RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and
RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings
9 RCMs ~50km … A2
2 RCMs ~25km … A2
3 RCMs ~50km … B2
2 GCMs
RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and
RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings
WP6.3 Impact modelling at seasonal-to-decadal time scales.
* Activity starting in first 18 months
Maximizing skill in the impacts models driven by seasonal-to-decadal scale
forecasting.
Closely tied to WP5.5 – Tier-1, Tier-2 and Tier-3 validation
Development of Integration Methodology includes downscaling and bias
correction (working with other RTs)
Downscaling and bias correction for ensemble hindcasts * 18 month activity
Integration of seasonal-to-decadal application models within an EPS
(DEMETER)* 18 month activity
Assessment of GCM vs. RCM driven seasonal-to-decadal application models.
Gaining the maximum skill from an EPS seasonal-to-decadal scale integration
Quantification of EPS skill requirements at seasonal-to-decadal timescales for
RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and
application models.
RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings
WP6.3
Work of Marletto et al. ARPA
Figures are discussed
by Morse et al. 2004,
CLIVAR Exchanges
and further details in separate papers in
forthcoming
RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3
and of Morse et al. Liverpool
Tellus DEMETER special issue
Work
RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings
Issues and Linkages arising within RT6
• Timely and easy access to data – already in discussion RT1, RT2a,
RT2b, RT3 and RT5
• Effective use of downscaling tools – already in discussion with RT2B,
RT3 and RT2a
•RT5 for validation – with WP6.3 and WP5.5 directly linked
• Interest in RT4 findings
• RT7 economic impacts
RT6 ENSEMBLES @ RT3 and
RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings