Transcript UEA

UEA contribution to ENSEMBLES
WP6.2 –
where we are and where we think
we are going!
Tom Holt
Climatic Research Unit,
University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
ENSEMBLES AGM, Lund, November, 2006
WP6.2 Utility Web Site
• First draft finished
• Will put up after AGM
• Brief summary
–
–
–
–
–
–
Data links
Data storage
Code snippets
Analysis ideas
Publication promotion and development
Work schedule, timetable, milestones etc.
• This draft is to invite comment!
D6.2 UEA’s contribution
• Essentially a series of impact models based on exceedences of
critical thresholds of temperature, rainfall, etc.
– Appropriate for human health, animal husbandry, storm vulnerability,
flooding
• Analogue models
– e.g. represent 2003 heat wave as persistent exceedences of
temperature percentiles. Apply this to all Europe and examine changes
in probability by end of century.
• Return levels
– Block maxima extremes (and r-largest) normally are parameterised by
the GEV distribution, which allows ready estimation of return levels and
return periods for particular values
– So, for example, knowing a certain temperature has a return period of
100 years gives, on average, a 1% chance of exceeding that
temperature in a given year.
• Therefore, can plot probabilities for impact models by grid box
Tim’s Five Questions! (1)
1.
What are the main objectives of the UEA study?
1.
2.
Devise impact models in the categories defined in the DoW
Relate these to indices of climate extremes based on daily
ENSEMBLES RCM data (both block maxima and r-largest)
Estimate changes in probability of impact due to climate change
3.
•
•
4.
Use multiple ensembles to assess uncertainty in the probabilities due
to different factors
•
2.
Using continuous time series so rate of change can be considered
Involves assessment of return levels
Forcing model, error in individual models
How do objectives relate to WP6.2 objectives?
1.
2.
To select, calibrate and test impact models
To undertake preliminary impact model sensitivity analysis and scenario runs
(response surfaces)
3.
To define critical thresholds of impacts for relevant sectors and regions
Tim’s Five Questions! (2)
3.
What have we achieved so far?
–
–
4.
Objectives 1, 2, and 3 are about 85% completed using block maxima
Needs to be repeated with r-largest where appropriate
Which of the WP6.2 tasks, Milestones, and Deliverables do we
plan to contribute to and in what form?
–
D6.2: model and method development, co-ordinating joint report
•
–
D6.8: testing on climate change data, co-ordinating joint report
•
–
–
–
–
–
completed
Due month 30
D6.13: repeat 6.8 with multi-ensembles data (due month 42)
M6.12: review and consolidation meeting (month 32)
M6.13: don’t know what it means!
M6.14: as D6.13 (month 42)
Tasks as supporting above
Tim’s Five Questions! (3)
5.
What are the main questions requiring discussion
here?
•
Is the meeting in M6.12 necessary?
•
•
What does M6.13 mean?
•
•
Much of the work should have been done in producing the reports
for D6.7 and D6.8
Preparation of protocol for determining probabilistic information from the
Ensembles Prediction System (RT 2B) and applying it to calibrated impact
models (in line with Major milestones 6.1 and 6.2)
How important is a common methodology for producing each
of D6.7 and D6.8?
•
By which I mean common only within each Deliverable