Transcript Overview - Ensembles

ENSEMBLES
ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their
Impacts
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Hadley
Centre
ENSEMBLES

A five year project under EC Framework Programme VI
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Funding from EC of 15 million Euros
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70 partners from EU, Switzerland, Australia, US
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Ten Research Themes (RT)s
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Centre
ENSEMBLES – Strategic Objectives

Develop an ensemble prediction system based on the principal state-of-the-art high resolution, global
and regional Earth System models, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded
datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabalistic estimate of uncertainty in
future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales
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Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and humanrelated feedbacks in the Earth System
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Maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including
agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and risk management
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ENSEMBLES – Scientific Objectives
1. Produce probabilistic predictions from seasonal to decadal and longer timescales through
the use of ensembles, and use these to explore the related impacts
2. Integrate additional processes in climate models to produce true earth system models
3. Develop higher resolution climate models to provide more regionally detailed climate
predictions and better information on extreme events
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ENSEMBLES – Scientific Objectives
4. Reduce uncertainty in climate predictions and impact estimates through increased
understanding of climate processes and feedbacks and through evaluation and validation of
models and techniques
5. Increased application of climate predictions by a growing and increasingly diverse user
community
6. Increased availability of scientific knowledge and provision of relevant information related
to the impacts of climate change, within the scientific community, and to stakeholders,
policymakers and the public
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ENSEMBLES Research Themes
RT
Name
Current co-ordinators
0
Project integration, management and promotion
Dave Griggs
1
Development of the Ensemble Prediction System
James Murphy, Tim Palmer
2A
Production of seasonal to decadal hindcasts and
Jean-François Royer, Guy Brasseur
climate change scenarios (Model Engine Part 1)
2B
Production of Regional Climate Scenarios for Impact
Clare Goodess, Daniela Jacob
Assessments (Model Engine Part 2)
3
Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Jens Christensen,
Model Ensembles for Europe
4
Understanding the processes governing climate
Markku Rummukainen
Julia Slingo, Herve le Treut
variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events
5
Independent comprehensive evaluation of the
Antonio Navarra, Albert Klein Tank
ENSEMBLES simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses
6
Assessments of impacts of climate change
Andy Morse, Colin Prentice
7
Scenarios and Policy Implications
Richard Tol, Roberto Roson
8
Dissemination, Education, and Training
Martin Beniston,
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Christos Giannakopolous
Hadley
Centre
ENSEMBLES
Integrates world-leading European research
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Participation by main European modelling centres to provide earth system model (ESM) and
regional model components
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Exploits PRISM infrastructure, where possible, to explore uncertainty using multi-model
approach
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Strengthened collaboration between physical climate modellers and experts in the carbon
cycle and atmospheric chemistry
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Participation by applications modellers to deliver climate impacts predictions of societal
relevance
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Uses techniques and knowledge gained at seasonal timescales and applies them to decadal
and longer timescales
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ENSEMBLES
Quantifies and reduces uncertainty in representation of Earth system
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Carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate to be considered together in a rigorous and
interactive way
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Combination of global and regional models enables resolution of adequate geographic detail,
capturing both regional effects/impacts but including global teleconnections
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Economic and social dimensions of uncertainty to be considered
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Multi-model ensemble-based probability approach will quantify uncertainty, lead to increased
understanding, and influence the development of the next generation of models, thereby
leading to uncertainty reduction in the future
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Centre
ENSEMBLES

Project will be managed by a Management Board
under the terms of a Consortium Agreement
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Co-ordinated by Dave Griggs at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre
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Expected start date 1 September 2004
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First deliverables/milestones include a kick-off meeting, development of web sites, choice of
common set of forcings and scenarios
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