Transcript Technology Assessment - Management Presentations.

Technology Assessment
http://www.managementsupport.com
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Outline
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Management of Technology
Sociotechnical Change
Technology Planning
Technology Forecasting
Managing Forecasting
Methods and Issues
Lifecycles
Monitoring
Tools for Trending
Extrapolating Technological Trends
Expert Opinion
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Result of Technology’s Increasing
Significance
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Technology assessment
 originally driven by concern regarding the negative
effects of technology on the environment and
society.
 now much more encompassing
Technology forecasting
 assessment requires anticipation, therefore a need
for technology forecasting.
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Product Life Cycle
Maximum
Profit
Profit
Revenue
(x100,000)
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Innovation
Growth
Maximum
Sales Volume
Decline
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2
Sales
Volume
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Commercial
launch
Sales
Revenue
(x1,000,000)
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Maturity
Profit
Withdrawn
from
market
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Years from Launch
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Impact/Technology Assessment
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It is the systematic study of the effects on society, that may
occur when a technology is introduced, extended, or modified,
with emphasis on the impacts that are unintended, indirect, or
delayed.
(Joseph Coates, 1976)
It should be viewed by technology managers as professional
obligation and social responsibility
It’s results form the “big picture” concerns that should shape
the context of technological planning
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Forecasting-Technology Management
Relationship
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Forecasting is intended to bring information to the technology
management process
 Predicts possible technological changes that might affect
corporate goals
 Provides useful information to decision makers
The shape and format of forecasting are determined by
 Targeted audience (nation, organization, business unit, group
of units…)
 Audience goals
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Stages of Technological Innovation
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Stage 3: Verification
 laboratory experiment that confirms the validity of the
proposed theory or design concept
Stage 4: Laboratory Demonstration
 first primitive model of the technology concept in a useful
form
Stage 5: Field Trial
 full-scale approach or field trial that ultimately becomes
the prototype or pilot-plant
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Competitive Technology Lifecycle
Traditional
technology
Emergent
technology
Time
Ex: Vacuum tubes v. transistors
: Sail v. steamships
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Fisher-Pry Model
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Substitution model
Symmetrical around the 50% penetration point
y(t) = 1/(1 + e-b(t-a))
 y(t) = fraction of the potential market served by the new
technology at time t
 a = the time the new technology reaches 50% of the total
market
 b = rate of adoption
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Technological Description/Foresight
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Technology description is a subset of technology foresight
Technology foresight involves predicting and preparing for
the opportunities and challenges that new technologies
offer
Noted authors Dr. van Wyk & Dr. Jonathan Litton
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Choosing Experts Opinion Capture
Technique
Six factors are to consider in choosing a technique to
capture experts opinion (Nelms and Porter, 1985):
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Logistics: resources largely determine the method
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Feedback: minimizing delay between successive feedback is
desirable
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Communication medium: is a function of access to experts,
resources, and time
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