Transcript Technology Assessment - Lean Enterprise Leadership

Technology Assessment
Enterprise Excellence Series
© 2009 Factory Strategies Group LLC. All rights reserved.
Outline
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Management of Technology
Sociotechnical Change
Technology Planning
Technology Forecasting
Managing Forecasting
Methods and Issues
Lifecycles
Monitoring
Tools for Trending
Extrapolating Technological Trends
Expert Opinion
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Result of Technology’s Increasing Significance
• Technology assessment
▫ originally driven by concern regarding the negative effects of
technology on the environment and society.
▫ now much more encompassing
• Technology forecasting
▫ assessment requires anticipation, therefore a need for
technology forecasting.
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Product Life Cycle
Maximum
Profit
Profit
Revenue
(x100,000)
4
3
Innovation
Growth
Maturity
Profit
3
2
2
Sales
Volume
1
Commercial
launch
© 2009 Factory Strategies Group LLC. All rights reserved.
Withdrawn
from
market Sales
4 Revenue
Decline
(x1,000,00
0)
Maximum
Sales Volume
1
Years from Launch
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Impact/Technology Assessment
• It is the systematic study of the effects on society, that
may occur when a technology is introduced, extended,
or modified, with emphasis on the impacts that are
unintended, indirect, or delayed.
▫ (Joseph Coates, 1976)
• It should be viewed by technology managers as
professional obligation and social responsibility
• It’s results form the “big picture” concerns that should
shape the context of technological planning
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Forecasting-Technology Management
Relationship
• Forecasting is intended to bring information to the
technology management process
▫ Predicts possible technological changes that might affect
corporate goals
▫ Provides useful information to decision makers
• The shape and format of forecasting are determined by
▫ Targeted audience (nation, organization, business unit, group of
units…)
▫ Audience goals
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Stages of Technological Innovation
• Stage 3: Verification
▫ laboratory experiment that confirms the validity of the
proposed theory or design concept
• Stage 4: Laboratory Demonstration
▫ first primitive model of the technology concept in a useful form
• Stage 5: Field Trial
▫ full-scale approach or field trial that ultimately becomes the
prototype or pilot-plant
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Competitive Technology Lifecycle
Traditional
technology
Emergent
technology
Time
Ex: Vacuum tubes v. transistors
: Sail v. steamships
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Fisher-Pry Model
• Substitution model
• Symmetrical around the 50% penetration point
• y(t) = 1/(1 + e-b(t-a))
▫ y(t) = fraction of the potential market served by the new
technology at time t
▫ a = the time the new technology reaches 50% of the total
market
▫ b = rate of adoption
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Technological Description/Foresight
• Technology description is a subset of technology
foresight
• Technology foresight involves predicting and preparing
for the opportunities and challenges that new
technologies offer
• Noted authors Dr. van Wyk & Dr. Jonathan Litton
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Choosing Experts Opinion Capture Technique
Six factors are to consider in choosing a technique to
capture experts opinion (Nelms and Porter, 1985):
1. Logistics: resources largely determine the method
2. Feedback: minimizing delay between successive
feedback is desirable
3. Communication medium: is a function of access to
experts, resources, and time
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