Transcript Presentation Christian Schneider - What is the LOCAL

LOCAL PASS
A LOCAL APPROACH TOWARDS THE REDUCTION OF
PSYCHOACTIVE SUBSTANCE USE
The Elusiveness of New Drug Trends
(And What We Can Do About Them, Nevertheless)
Christian Schneider, Swiss Federal Office of Police
Why Cooperation Is Key
• Widely dispersed knowledge/data
• Lack of objective standard for what
constitutes a “problem”
• No “solution” can address all aspects of a
problem
„In our view, however, the major factor in the failed
estimates was (…) single-outcome forecasting.
This (…) reinforced some of the worst analytical
hazards -- status quo bias and a prejudice towards
continuity of previous trends.“
NIC Senior Review Panel (1983). Report of Intelligence Judgements Preceding Significant Historical Failures: The Hazards of
Single- Outcome Forecasting. Washington: National Intelligence Council: 4-5 (emphasis added)
„Give a small boy a hammer, and he will find that
everything he encounters needs pounding. “
Abraham Kaplan (1964). The Conduct of Inquiry: Methodology for Behavioral Science. San Francisco: Chandler Publishing: 28
„ All [inhabitants, C.S.] have a profound
understanding of a particular set of hyperlocal issues
and conditions, but that doesn’t mean they grasp the
overall pattern in their city, or understand how to fix
the problems they inhabit (…). Each of them is
looking at a gigantic (and constantly morphing)
complex system through a soda straw.“
David Kilcullen (2013). Out of the Mountains: The Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla. Oxford: Oxford University Press: 244 (emphasis
added).