Transcript The Art of Getting it Wrong

20/20 Vision
An eclectic view of the
future impact of ICT
Agenda

Why forecasting is important.

The art of getting is wrong.

Technologies.

20 years from now - 2025

40 years from now – 2045
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The centrality of computing

Concluding thoughts
Why
Forecasting
is Important
The Importance of Forecasting

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
What is forecasting?
Types:
 Point;
 System;
 Quantitative;
 Qualitative.
Why is it important?
 Business;
 Personal;
 Government;
 Society.
Forecasting


Some important concepts.
 Evolution;
 Discontinuities.
Constraints:
 Human psychology;
 Basic economics;
 Social behaviour;
 Laws of physics;
 Feedback loops.
 Ergonomics.
Nicholas Carr
IT Doesn’t Matter Anymore (2003)
The Case…
We have been here before…
IT is following an established pattern.
Should We be Worried?
The Art of
Getting it
Wrong
The Art of Getting it Wrong
Forecasting is a risky business
Even the great and the good goof more
than occasionally...
The Art of Getting it Wrong
“I think there is a world market for maybe five
computers.”
Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943.
“We have one here at Cambridge; there is one in Manchester
and there is probably a need for there to be one in
Scotland as well, but that is about all.”
Prediction made about computers in 1947 by Douglas
Hartree, an English Mathematician.
“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.”
Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of
science, 1949.
The Art of Getting it Wrong
“I have travelled the length and breadth of this country and
talked with the best people, and I can assure you that
data processing is a fad that won't last out the year.”
The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957.
“But what ... is it good for?”
Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of
IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their
home.”
Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital
Equipment, Corp., 1977.
The Art of Getting it Wrong
“The telephone may be appropriate for our American
cousins, but not here, because we have an adequate
supply of messenger boys.”
British expert group evaluating the invention of the telephone.
“The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a
novelty - a fad?”
Michigan banker advising Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in
the Ford Motor Company.
“We don’t like their sound. Groups of guitars are on the way
out.”
Decca Records, in turning down a recording contract with the
Beatles. 1962.
The Art of Getting it Wrong
“It is significant that despite the claims of air enthusiasts no
battleship has yet been sunk by bombs
Caption for a photograph of the U.S.S. Arizona in the program for
the Army-Navy game, Nov. 29, 1941, eight days before the
Arizona sank at Pearl Harbor.
“Among the really difficult problems of the world, [the ArabIsraeli conflict is] one of the simplest and most
manageable.”
Walter Lippman, newspaper column, April 27, 1948. .
“You ain't goin' nowhere... son. You ought to go back to
driving a truck”
Jim Denny, Grand Ole Opry manager, firing Elvis Presley after
one performance, from an interview on Oct. 2, 1954. .
We Can’t All Be Right...
Francis Fukuyama
Samuel Huntington
“The triumph of
liberal democracy”
“The coming clash of
civilisations”
Moral
Technologies
Technologies

Wireless.

Superparallelism.

Light.

Biology.

Nanotechnology.

Robotics.

Quantum computing.
Technologies

Semantics.

Interfaces.

Networking.
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Embedded computing.
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Ubiquitous computing.
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Cyborg technology.
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Artificial intelligence.
No End in Sight?
Whatever
Time
Processing power
CPU cycles on the network
Volume of storage
Network capacity
Lines of code
Bannister’s Law
Complexity increases to utilise the
technology available
20 Years
from now:
2025
Assumptions: 20 Year Horizon

No global ecological disasters.

No radical social changes.

No major economic disruptions.

Continuation of current
demographic trends.

Oil price close to $80 a barrel.
20 Years Ago
1985
20 Years Ago

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No...
 Mobile phones;
 Internet (for general public);
 World wide web;
 Laptops;
 CDs (never mind DVDs);
 Broadband.
 Digital cameras.
Just about...
 Colour screens (wedding cake style);
 Luggable computers;
 e-Mail (limited to closed communities);
 Graphical user interface (for Mac users only);
 Ethernet (crude);
20 Years From Now?
By 2025
Effectively infinite storage
Effectively infinite computing capacity
No practical limits on non wireless bandwidth
Reached the physical limits of wireless bandwidth
Enormous advances in minaturisation
Organ cloning common
Some primitive use of cyborg technology
Advanced AI, but not self awareness
20 Years from Now?
By 2025
Technology in the home
Natural external interfaces
Reasonably widespread electronic cash
Automated factories
35-40 hour working week
Holographic/VR conferencing
Video mobile phones
Virtual event attendance
Designer babies
40 Years
from now:
2045
Assumptions: 40 Year Horizon

Still no global ecological disasters.

Radical social changes driven by
computing and biotechnology.

Significant changes in economic
structures.

Major energy problems.

Major water problems.

Oil extremely expensive.

Alternative energy vectors emerging.
40 Years Ago
1965
40 Years Ago

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No...
 Personal computers;
 e-mail;
 Colour screens;
 Networks;
 Office tools (WP/Spreadsheet/Graphics/etc/);
 GUIs, mouses;
 Laser printers;
 Jumbo jets;
Just about...
 All purpose computers (IBM 360);
 Colour television (but not in Ireland);
 Satellite communications;
 Dial up services.
Forty Years of Techno Progress
Forty Years of Techno Progress
SAP
40 Years From Now?
By 2045
Ubiquitous computing
Quantum computing
Cashless society in advanced countries
Electronically controlled transport systems
Universal access to the Internet
Highly controlled society
Opted out communities?
Unbreakable encryption and its implications
40 Years From Now?
By 2045
On-line voting
More localised government
Widespread use of cyborg technology
Advanced virtual reality
Life expectancies of several hundred years
Major disruption to social systems
Human cloning (possibly illegal)
Conceptual problems with identity and life
A post human society?
1965: Back to the Future?
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
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A more optimistic era.
Predicted...
 Man on the moon by 1969;
 20 hour working week by 1980s;
 Colonies on Mars;
 Cheap atomic power everywhere;
 Private jet cars;
 Video phones;
 Automated homes.
Science fiction and the Zeitgeist:
 2001 – A Space Odyssey (1968);
 Blade Runner (1982);
 Gattaca (1997).
The
Centrality of
Computing
The Centrality of Computing
Engineering
And so on...
Manufacturing
Genetics
Music
Computing
Business
Policing
Aviation
Physics
Computing and Society


...is at the centre of modern life.
...affects society in numerous ways
 some good:
 productivity;
 health;
 empowerment;
 access to information;
 flexibility.
 some bad:
 social isolation;
 cyber crime;
 social complexity/stress;
 social control;
 vulnerability.
Concluding
Thoughts
Two Seminal Books
On Getting it Wrong…
Electricity doesn’t matter any more
N. Carr Senior (1904)
On Getting in Wrong…
Think electric motor
Then think…
4215/MRP
Today: How many electric motors are there in your parents’ home?
Tomorrow: How many processors will there be in your home?
From The Leading Guru on AI
“In from three to eight years, we will have a machine
with the general intelligence of an average human
being. I mean a machine that will be able to read
Shakespeare, grease a car, play office politics, tell a
joke, have a fight. At that point, the machine will begin
to educate itself with fantastic speed. In a few months,
it will be at genius level, and a few months after that, its
power will be incalculable.
Marvin Minsky, MIT Professor, 1970
The Last Word…
John Sedgwick
“They couldn’t hit an elephant at this dist...”
Spotsylvania 9 May, 1864