Transcript Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting

8
CHAPTER
Marketing Research and
Sales Forecasting
Chapter Objectives
6 Explain the challenges of
1 Describe the development 4 Explain the different
of the marketing research
sampling techniques used conducting marketing
function and its major
by marketing researchers. research in global
activities.
markets.
Identify
the
methods
by
5
2 Explain the steps in the
which marketing
Outline the most
marketing research
researchers collect
7 important uses of
process.
primary data.
computer technology in
marketing research.
3 Distinguish between
primary and secondary
8 Identify the major types
data and identify the
of forecasting methods.
sources of each type.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
THE MARKETING RESEARCH FUNCTION
• Marketing research Process of collecting and using information for
marketing decision making.
• Research is central to understanding effective customer satisfaction and
customer relationship programs.
DEVELOPMENT OF THE MARKETING RESEARCH
FUNCTION
• First organized marketing research conducted in 1879 by N.W. Ayer.
• Second milestone was founding by Charles C. Parlin in 1911 of the
nation’s first commercial research department at Curtis Publishing, publisher
of The Saturday Evening Post.
• 1930s—better sampling techniques and greater accuracy.
• Computer technology has significantly advanced market research.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
WHO CONDUCTS MARKETING RESEARCH?
• Many firms outsource research needs; major U.S. marketing research firms
include ACNielsen and Arbitron.
• Syndicated services—regularly provide a standardized set of data to all
customers.
• Full-service research supplier—conducts complete marketing research
projects.
• Limited-service research supplier—specializes in a limited number of
activities, such as conducting field interviews or performing data processing.
CUSTOMER SATISFACTION MEASUREMENT
PROGRAMS
• Firms often focus on tracking satisfaction levels of current customers and
analyze dissatisfaction to identify problem areas.
• Organizations may outsource these studies or conduct them themselves.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS
• Usually follows a six-step process.
DEFINE THE PROBLEM
• Well-defined problems are half-solved.
• Avoid confusing symptoms with problem itself.
• Loss of market share is a symptom;
reason for the loss is the problem.
• Evaluate firm’s marketing mix and possible
changes to the marketing environment.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
CONDUCT EXPLORATORY RESEARCH
• Exploratory research Process of discussing a
marketing problem with informed sources both
within and outside the firm and examining
information from secondary sources.
• May use internal data from customer surveys,
sales analysis, accounting data, and marketing
cost analysis.
FORMULATE A HYPOTHESIS
• A tentative explanation that sets the stage for
more in-depth research.
CREATE A RESEARCH DESIGN
• A master plan or model that will measure what
researchers intend to measure.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
COLLECT DATA
• Secondary data Previously published information.
• Primary data Information collected specifically
for the investigation at hand.
INTERPRET AND PRESENT
RESEARCH INFORMATION
• Present in a format that allows managers to
make effective judgments.
• Researchers and end users must collaborate to
ensure effectiveness of research.
• Reports must be clear and concise.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
MARKETING RESEARCH METHODS
SECONDARY DATA COLLECTION
• Secondary data comes from internal and external sources.
• Government data—nation’s most important source of marketing data.
• U.S. Census.
• TIGER system, which overlays topographic features with census
data.
• Private data from trade associations, business and trade magazines, and
other sources.
•Online sources such as databases and research aggregators that acquire,
catalog, reformat, segment, and resell premium research reports.
• Internet discussion groups, chat rooms, and newsgroups.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
SAMPLING TECHNIQUES
• Sampling Process of selecting survey respondents or research participants.
• Probability sample Sample that gives every member of the population a
chance of being selected.
• Simple random sample, stratified sample, or cluster sample.
• Nonprobability sample Sample that involves personal judgment
somewhere in the process.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
PRIMARY RESEARCH METHODS
• Choice of method depends on the issues under study and the decisions
marketers need to make.
• Observation method—researchers view the
overt actions of subjects being studied.
• Interpretive research Observational research
method developed by social anthropologists in
which customers are observed in their natural
setting and their behavior is interpreted based
on an understanding of social and cultural
characteristics; also known as ethnography,
or “going native.”
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
SURVEY METHOD
• Telephone interviews—inexpensive way of getting a small
quantity of relatively impersonal information.
• Personal interviews—allow researchers to obtain detailed information and
ask follow-up questions.
• Focus group Simultaneous personal interview of a small group of
individuals, which relies on group discussion about a certain topic.
• Mail surveys—cost-effective means that allows respondents anonymity.
• Fax surveys—difficult to get good household sample, and federal junk fax
law limits its use commercially.
• Online surveys and other Internet-based methods—allow researchers to
speed the survey process, increase sample sizes, ignore geographic
boundaries, and dramatically reduce costs.
• Experimental method—controlled experiment, for example; least used
method.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
CONDUCTING INTERNATIONAL MARKETING
RESEARCH
• Follow same basic steps as for domestic marketing research.
• U.S. Department of Commerce offers reports and guides about almost
every country in the world.
• Export America and Overseas Business Reports.
• Researchers must be aware of cultural and legal environments.
• May have to adapt research methods to local conditions.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
INTERPRETIVE RESEARCH
• Provides insight into consumer behavior and the ways consumers interact
with brands.
• Researcher spends time studying the culture, called ethnographic research.
• Focus is on understanding the meaning of the product or consumption in
the consumer’s life.
• Cost is higher than other forms of research.
• Captures what consumers actually do, not just what they say they do.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY IN
MARKETING RESEARCH
MARKETING INFORMATION SYSTEMS (MIS)
• A planned, computer-based system designed to provide decision makers
with a continuous flow of information relevant to their areas of
responsibility.
• Continually monitors marketing environment and provides instantaneous
information.
MARKETING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS (MDSSs)
• Marketing decision support system (MDSS) Marketing information
system component that links a decision maker with relevant databases and
analysis tools.
• Develops raw data into information useful for decision making.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
DATA MINING
• The process of searching through computerized data files to detect patterns.
• Focuses on identifying relationships that are not obvious to marketers.
• Efficient way to sort through huge amounts of data and make sense of it.
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
• Process of gathering information and analyzing it to improve business
strategy, tactics, and daily operations.
COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE
• A form of business intelligence that focuses on finding information about
competitors using published sources, interviews, observations by
salespeople and suppliers in the industry, and other sources.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
SALES FORECASTING
• Sales forecast Estimate of a firm’s revenue for a specified time period.
QUALITATIVE FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
• Jury of executive opinion—combining and averaging the outlooks of top
executives.
• Delphi technique—soliciting opinions from several people and gathering
input from outside experts.
• Sales force composite—forecasting based on internal insights concerning
short-term future sales.
• Survey of buyer intentions—gathering input to determine the purchasing
intentions of a representative group of present and potential customers.
CHAPTER 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
• Test markets—gauging consumer responses to a new
product under actual marketplace conditions.
• Trend analysis—developing forecasts for future sales by
analyzing the historical relationship between sales and time.
• Exponential smoothing—weighing each year’s sales data,
giving greater weight to results from the most recent years.