Transcript 20141008_RESILIENCE_EMS

The RESILIENCE
Climate Service
Predicting Renewable Power
over Future Monthly to
Annual Timescales
Melanie Davis, Climate Services Manager
[email protected]
Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Verónica Torralba Fernandez,
Aida Pintó Biescas, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego
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Climate Forecasting Unit
“The development of any business requires
the ability to predict market movements over
which it operates.”
Ignacio Lainez Aracama, Professor of Wind Energy, EOI and Director of Energy Assessments, EDP Renewables.
El País Article: 4th March 2014: Mix energético: las renovables y su predictibilidad
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Climate Forecasting Unit
Weather
Forecasts
Predictions
PRESENT
Sub-Seasonal
& Seasonal
Intra-Annual
& Annual
FUTURE
Climate
Inter-Annual
& Decadal
Projections
Climate Change
Weather
Forecasts
Climate
Predictions
PRESENT
Sub-Seasonal
& Seasonal
Intra-Annual
& Annual
Inter-Annual
& Decadal
FUTURE
Pre-construction
Knowledge for planning decisions
Post-construction
Knowledge for O&M decisions
Projections
Climate Change
“Energy decision makers now have a new set
of climate risk management tools that can
strengthen their decision making, but are they
ready to use them?”
Melanie Davis, EMS 2014 Abstract
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Climate Forecasting Unit
“Energy decision makers now have a new set
of climate risk management tools that can
strengthen their decision making, but are they
ready to use them?”
Melanie Davis, EMS 2014 Abstract
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Climate Forecasting Unit
RESILIENCE Climate Service
Improve predictability of wind power generation
RESILIENCE
Climate Service
SERVICE: Climate predictions
from 1 month to 1 year, for wind
speed, wind power and
temperature
Wind Farm
Operator,
Owner or Investor
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Climate Forecasting Unit
RESILIENCE Climate Service
Improve predictability of wind power generation
RESILIENCE
Climate Service
SERVICE: Climate predictions
from 1 month to 1 year, for wind
speed, wind power and
temperature
Wind Farm
Operator,
Owner or Investor
8
Climate Forecasting Unit
INDEX: WIND POWER ESTIMATION
Use of Only
Past Climate
0
Climate Prediction Capacity
Target
Current
service
RESILIENCE
service
PROJECTIONS
In Europe PREDICTIONS In USA / Tropics
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Climate Forecasting Unit
1
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Climate Forecasting Unit
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Climate Forecasting Unit
“Energy decision makers now have a new set
of climate risk management tools that can
strengthen their decision making, but are they
ready to use them?”
Melanie Davis, EMS 2014 Abstract
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Climate Forecasting Unit
RESILIENCE Applications
Anticipate market changes:
Identify vulnerabilities and risks
Facilitate strategic climate adaptation action
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Climate Forecasting Unit
RESILIENCE Benefits
Anticipate market changes:
Ability to make decisions earlier
Avoid subjective decision making
Take calculated precautionary action
Potential cost saving
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Climate Forecasting Unit
“[Renewable] energy provision may be
anticipated, not only in the short and long
term as it is today, but also at intermediate
horizons, where a huge market niche
appears.”
Ignacio Lainez Aracama, Professor of Wind Energy, EOI and Director of Energy Assessments,
EDP Renewables. El País Article: 4th March 2014: Mix energético: las renovables y su predictibilidad
Climate Forecasting Unit
The research leading to these results has received funding
from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme
(FP7/2007-2013) under the following projects:
CLIM-RUN, www.climrun.eu (GA n° 265192)
EUPORIAS, www.euporias.eu (GA n° 308291)
SPECS, www.specs-fp7.eu (GA n° 308378)
Thank You
[email protected]