Transcript lessons learned from past notable disasters. turkey. part

LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST
NOTABLE DISASTERS
TURKEY
PART 3: EARTHQUAKES
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
TURKEY
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED
DISASTERS IN TURKEY
FLOODS
GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE
AND COMMUNITIES
WINDSTORMS
EARTHQUAKES
HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM
BECOMING DISASTER
NRESILIENT
WILDFIRES
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
Natural Phenomena That Cause
Disasters
Planet Earth’s
heat flow causes
movement of
lithospheric
plates, which
causes faulting,
which causes
EARTHQUAKES
TECTONIC PLATES
TECTONIC PLATES
ANATOLIAN PLATE AND
NORTH ANATOLIAN FAULT
TURKEY’S SEISMICITY: 1900
TO PRESENT
ELEMENTS OF RISK AND
DISASTER
ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE
RISK
HAZARDS
EXPOSURE
RISK
VULNERABILITY
LOCATION
SEISMICITY
TECTONIC
SETTING &
FAULTS
EARTHQUAKE
HAZARD MODEL
IDENTIFY THE
SEISMICALLY ACTIVE
FAULTS
EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS
ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS
EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS
SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE,
GROUND SHAKING, GROUND
FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION,
LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS
FAULT RUPTURE
DAMAGE/LOSS
EARTHQUAKE
GROUND
SHAKING
DAMAGE/LOSS
TSUNAMI
DAMAGE/ LOSS
TECTONIC
DEFORMATION
DAMAGE/ LOSS
FOUNDATION
FAILURE
DAMAGE/ LOSS
SITE
AMPLIFICATION
DAMAGE/ LOSS
LIQUEFACTION
DAMAGE/ LOSS
LANDSLIDES
DAMAGE/ LOSS
AFTERSHOCKS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
SEICHE
DAMAGE/ LOSS
GROUND SHAKING
PROBABILISTIC GROUND
SHAKING HAZARD
LOCATION OF
STRUCTURE
IMPORTANCE AND
VALUE OF
STRUCTURE
AND
CONTENTS
EXPOSURE
MODEL
QUALITY OF
DESIGN AND
CONSTRUCTION
ADEQUACY OF
LATERAL-FORCE
RESISTING SYSTEM
VULNERABILITY
MODEL
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE
DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO
GROUND SHAKING
MEAN DAMAGE RATIO,
% OF REPLACEMENT VALUE
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
V
VI
VII
INTENSITY
VIII
IX
CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND
FAILURE)
EARTHQUAKES
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION
AND PLAN
“DISASTER
LABORATORIES”
FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF
UTILITIES
LACK OF DETAILING AND
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
INATTENTION TO
NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN
WHEN THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS
OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT
WITH TURKEY’S COMMUNITIES
A DISASTER is ----- the set of failures that overwhelm the
capability of a community to respond
without external help when three
continuums: 1) people, 2) community
(i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and
social constructs), and 3) complex
events (e.g., earthquakes, floods,…)
intersect at a point in space and time.
Disasters are caused by
single- or multiple-event
natural hazards that, (for
various reasons), cause
extreme levels of mortality,
morbidity, homelessness,
joblessness, economic losses,
or environmental impacts.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• When it does happen, the
functions of the community’s
buildings and infrastructure will be
LOST because they are
UNPROTECTED with the
appropriate codes and standards.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is UNPREPARED for what will likely
happen, not to mention the
low-probability of occurrence—
high-probability of adverse
consequences event.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community has NO DISASTER
PLANNING SCENARIO or
WARNING SYSTEM in place as a
strategic framework for early threat
identification and coordinated
local, national, regional, and
international countermeasures.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community LACKS THE
CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a
timely and effective manner to
the full spectrum of expected
and unexpected emergency
situations.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is INEFFICIENT
during recovery and
reconstruction because it HAS
NOT LEARNED from either the
current experience or the
cumulative prior experiences.
ERZINCAN:
TURKEY’S WORST
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
DECEMBER 26, 1939
A STRIKE-SLIP FAULT EARTHQUAKE
32,700 DEATHS
M7.8
ERZINCAN
ERZINCAN COLLAPSE
IZMIT:
TURKEY’S 2ND WORST
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
AUGUST 17, 1999
A STRIKE-SLIP FAULT EARTHQUAKE
17,118 DEATHS
M7.6
COLLAPSES
IZMIT HIGHLIGHTED TODAY’S
PROBLEM: SOFT-STOREY BUILDINGS
THE REASON:
LACK OF, OR INADEQUATE
PROTECTION
(I.E., ADOPTION AND
IMPLEMENTATION OF A MODERN
BUILDING CODE)
THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IS
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
RESILIENCE
EARTHQUAKE RISK
• EARTHQUAKE
HAZARDS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
TURKEY’S
COMMUNITIES
EARTHQUAKE
DISASTER RESILIENCE
POLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT
DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL EARTHQUAKES
PREPAREDNESS FOR
ALL OF THE LIKELY
HAZARDS AND
RISKS IS ESSENTIAL
FOR DISASTER
RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT
DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL EARTHQUAKES
PROTECTION OF
BUILDINGS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE
AGAINST COLLAPSE
AND LOSS OF
FUNCTION IS
ESSENTIAL FOR
DISASTER
RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT
DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL EARTHQUAKES
TECHNOLOGIES
THAT FACILITATE
THREAT IDENTIFICATION AND/OR
PREPARATION OF
DISASTER
SCENARIOS ARE
ESSENTIAL FOR
DISASTER
RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT
DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL EARTHQUAKES
TIMELY
EMERGENCY
RESPONSE IS
ESSENTIAL FOR
DISASTER
RESILIENCE
EARTHQUAKES IN TURKEY ARE
INEVITABLE
• ---SO, DON’T WAIT
FOR ANOTHER
REMINDER OF THE
IMPORTANCE OF
BECOMING
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENT.
STRATEGIC COLLABORATION
(I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A
COMMON GOAL)
FOR BECOMING
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
RESILIENT
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
EQ—TS DISASTER RESILIENCE
• MEASURMENT
• DATABASES
TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., • DISASTER
GROUND SHAKING;
SCENARIOS
STRAIN)
• ZONATION OF
• INFORMATION
POTENTIAL DISASTER
TECHNOLOGY
AGENTS AS A TOOL
(E.G., GIS)
FOR POLICY
• RISK MODELING (E.G.,
DECISIONS
HAZUS, INSURANCE
UNDERWRITING)
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
EQ—TS DISASTER REWILIENCE
• AUTOMATED
CONSTRUCTION
EQUIPMEMT
• PREFABRICATION
AND
MODULARIZATION
• ADVANCED
MATERIALS (E.G.,
COMPOSITES)
• COMPUTER AIDED
DESIGN
• PERFORMANCE BASED
CODES AND STANDARDS
• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE
ENERGY DISSIPATION
DEVICES (E.G., BASE
ISOLATION)
• REAL-TIME MONITORING
AND WARNING SYSTEMS
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
EQ—TS DISASTER RESILIENCE
• PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS OF
PHYSICAL EFFECTS
• MEASUREMENT
TECHNOLOGIES (E.G.,
SEISMIC NETWORKS,
TSUNAMI WARNING
SYSTEM)
• DATABASES
• SEISMIC ENGINEERING
• MAPS: GROUND
SHAKING, GTOUND
FAILURE, TSUNAMI WAVE
RUNIP
• DISASTER SCENARIOS
• WARNING SYSTEMS
• RISK MODELING (E.G.,
HAZUS, INSURANCE
UNDERWRITING)