Transcript earthquakes
LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS RUSSIA PART 3: EARTHQUAKES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN RUSSIA FLOODS GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES WILDFIRES ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE TECTONIC PLATES Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s Restlessness Causes Movement of Tectonic Plates, which leads to: Earthquakes KURIL-KAMCHATKA TRENCH • Many earthquakes and tsunamis originate from Kamchatka as a result of subduction of the Pacific Plate under the Okhotsk Plate at the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench SEISMICITY MAP SINCE 1900: KAMCHATKA HAS THE MOST SEISMIC ACTIVITY FORTUNATELY, THE REGION IS SPARSELY POPULATED ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK HAZARDS EXPOSURE RISK VULNERABILITY LOCATION A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH THE VULNERABLE BUILT ENVIRONMENTS OF RUSSIA’S COMMUNITIES EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS: ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS FAULT RUPTURE DAMAGE/LOSS EARTHQUAKE GROUND SHAKING DAMAGE/LOSS TSUNAMI DAMAGE/ LOSS TECTONIC DEFORMATION DAMAGE/ LOSS FOUNDATION FAILURE DAMAGE/ LOSS SITE AMPLIFICATION DAMAGE/ LOSS LIQUEFACTION DAMAGE/ LOSS LANDSLIDES DAMAGE/ LOSS AFTERSHOCKS DAMAGE/ LOSS SEICHE DAMAGE/ LOSS LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY GROUND SHAKING AND GROUND FAILURE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE VULNERABILITY TO GROUND SHAKING CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND SHAKING MEAN DAMAGE RATIO, % OF REPLACEMENT VALUE 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 V VI VII INTENSITY VIII IX CAUSES OF DAMAGE INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) EARTHQUAKES IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN “DISASTER LABORATORIES” FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS A DISASTER is ----- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, landslides,..) intersect at a point in space and time. Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts. THE REASONS ARE . . . • When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community is UNPREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence— high-probability of adverse consequences event. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for concerted local, national, regional, and international countermeasures. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences. THE ALTERNATIVE TO DISASTER IS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE EARTHQUAKE RISK • QUAKE HAZARDS •INVENTORY •VULNERABILITY •LOCATION DATA BASES AND INFORMATION ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK RUSSIA’S COMMINITIES QUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICY OPTIONS HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS •PREPAREDNESS •PROTECTION •FORECASTS/SCENARIOS •EMERGENCY RESPONSE •RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY GROUND SHAKING AND GROUND FAILURE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE STANDARDS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE THE NEFTEGORSK EARTHQUAKE– ONE OF RUSSIA’S NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES 11:03 pm; May 27, 1995 Mw7.1; Ms7.6 Depth: 9 km (5.4 miles) THE NEFTEGORSK EARTHQUAKE: MAY 27, 1995 • A “BULLS EYE EARTHQUAKE: The 40kn-long rupture of the right-lateral strike-slip fault passed directly under Neftegorsk THE NEFTEGORSK EARTHQUAKE: MAY 27, 1995 • Neftegorsk was nearly completely destroyed by the earthquake, and approximately 2,000 of the 3,176 residents in the town were killed. THE NEFTEGORSK EARTHQUAKE: MAY 27, 1995 • 406 person were rescued alive from under the rubble, but 37 of them died in a hospital following rescue THE NEFTEGORSK EARTHQUAKE: MAY 27, 1995 • The settlement was not rebuilt after the earthquake. • Most of the 1,144 survivors were relocated. TWO OF KAMCHATKA’S MANY EARTHQUAKES April 20, 2006 April 29, 2006 APRIL 20, 2006 KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKE • The April 20, 2006 Kamchatka earthquake was a M7.6 shock located near the coast of Koryak Autonomous Okrug at an estimated depth of 22 km. APRIL 20, 2006 KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKE • The April 20, 2006 Kamchatka earthquake was a M7.6 shock located near the coast of Koryak Autonomous Okrug at an estimated depth of 22 km. • This major quake and the aftershock sequence that followed damaged buildings and infrastructure in three villages. APRIL 29, 2006 KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKE • The M6.6 earthquake, which struck on Saturday, April 29, was followed by a number of strong and medium aftershocks. APRIL 29, 2006 KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKE • 1,000 people were evacuated, 40 people were injured, but no deaths. APRIL 29, 2006 KAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKE • Several diesel electric power stations were damaged. RUSSIA’S NEXT EARTHQUAKE IN KAMCHATKA IS INEVITABLE • ---SO, DON’T WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER FROM A M4.4 OR LARGER EARTHQUAKE OF THE IMPORTANCE OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE.