Transcript Presentation - United Nations Statistics Division

High Level Forum on Official Statistics
Side Event of UN Statistical Commission
27 February 2012, New York
Measuring the Unmeasurable
- Challenges from the Earthquake -
Shigeru Kawasaki
Adviser, Statistics Bureau, Japan
1 Introduction
• What does it take to “measure”?
- define the concepts, scales, units.
- design the methods for data collection.
- implement data collection & estimation.
• Why look at the earthquake?
- Under extreme conditions, limits and weaknesses
in current statistics will emerge clearly.
- Disasters may happen to any country.
• Challenges are found in measuring
- the change in population
- the impact on energy & environment
- the impact on economy & public finance
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2 The 2011 Earthquake in Eastern Japan
A massive earthquake of M 9.0
struck eastern Japan at 14:46 on
11 March 2011. Together with
tsunami and the accident in the
nuclear power plant, enormous
damage was inflicted on the people
and the area.
Dead:
Missing:
Relocated:
Destroyed:
Flooded area:
15,852 persons
3,287 persons
342,509 persons
120,204 dwellings
561 km2
cf. Total population 128 million
Total area
377,950 km2
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Intensity
+
+
-
Epicenter
0 100 200 300 400 km
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3 Measuring the Change in Population
• To provide rescue and relief effectively, data on the population
affected by the disaster were needed quickly.
• Direct data collection in the disaster area was not possible.
-----> To obtain indirect estimates on small-area basis, statistics
were combined with geographic information from aerial photos.
Customized statistical maps were provided to local authorities.
• For reconstruction planning, migration data of the people in the
area was needed, in addition to socio-economic statistics.
• People moving out were hesitant to register new addresses.
-----> Registration was encouraged by giving special treatment for
disaster area (retain the old one while reporting the new one)
The new national ID system planned for launch in 2015 will
help improve population and migration statistics.
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Base Map of Tsunami flooded areas (Sample)
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4 Assessing the Impact on Energy & Environment
• The accident at the nuclear plant caused electricity shortage.
Quota was introduced as immediate measure, but the plan was
very rough due to lack of data.
• Reliance on the nuclear energy is under review. Direction of
future energy balance is likely to change drastically.
-----> More detailed data on energy is needed, e.g.
- Hourly pattern of electricity consumption
- Cost comparison of different energy sources
- Environmental load of different energy sources
- Information on the new energy sources
(Data are mainly with private sector or policy makers
-----> Necessary to include data providers and policy makers
as players of official statistics)
 The “smart-grid” electricity network will be a valuable data
source for energy & environment and the economy.
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5-1 Assessing the economic impact and risks
• For reconstruction in 2011-2021, 23 trillion yen budget
(approx. US$ 288 billion) will be allocated, excluding the cost
related to the nuclear accident.
• The spending will increase the public debt to the world highest
level in the ratio to GDP.
General government net financial liabilities
• Additional cost for
(% of GDP)
the nuclear accident 160 %
Greece
has to be assessed
140
120
properly.
Japan
100
• The risk of instability
USA
of the economy will 80
60
France
become higher.
40
Germany
Careful monitoring
20
of economy & finance 0
will be necessary.
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Source: OECE Economic Outlook No.90
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5-2 Assessing the economic impact and risks
As the global financial crisis, first by the subprime mortgage loans
in the summer of 2007, followed by the sovereign debt in 2010,
continues, the economy is becoming more unforeseeable than
before just by observing the economy of just one country.
10 %
8
Real GDP Growth, Year-on-Year
Emerging
Economies
6
Exchange Rates (Euro and US$ to JPY)
World
4
2
-6
Source: IMF WEO Database Sept 2011
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2011Q1
2010Q1
2009Q1
2008Q1
2007Q1
2006Q1
2005Q1
2004Q1
2003Q1
2002Q1
-4
2001Q1
-2
2000Q1
0
Advanced Economies
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Yen / Euro
Yen / US $
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source: OECD MEI Database
2008
2010
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6 Conclusion
• Challenges from the earthquake include:
- To enhance the value of statistics by more use of GIS.
- To assure timeliness and accuracy of civil registration
- To improve data collection of energy & environment to
promote more informed public debate and decision-making
- To assess the full recovery cost including nuclear power
- To monitor economy and finance to maintain stable economic
growth and minimize the risk of instability
• More collaboration with policy makers and data providers (or
their inclusion into official statistics) will be necessary
• The challenges are generally in line with the current direction
of international official statistics. International collaboration
is essential.
• Sharing different experiences among countries is essential.
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The End
Thank you!
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