Transcript Document

Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation
Possibilities of using information
technologies for KNI evaluation
Auditor of Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation
Alexander Piskunov
KNI transparency problem
2
Progress definition
Freedom as realized
necessity
Freedom as possibility
of self-realization
(F. Engels)
(A. Sena)
Freedom as the realized potential possibilities of
realization of final goals
Development of socio-economic capabilities
as ends and means of development
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Using the capabilities approach for
a comprehensive evaluation of a project
Capability: property of a
system, probability that the
system will succeed in
achieving the goal of its
functioning.
The correspondence between
required and predicted state
sets in the functioning of a
system can be represented
as the probability of the
following binary predicate
being true:
Poss
k 1, K

Yk  Ykд

Y , k  1, K   прогнозные
;
predicted stateзначения
set

 Y , k  1, K  требуемые
значения.

 required state set
k
д
k
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Problem
of development management evaluation
Measurement of social-economical capability as progress
measurement
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Evaluation of key assets
indexes of providing competitive ability potentials
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Key National Indicators Knowledge Base
Terms and
definitions
Glossary
Databases
provided by
national statistics
agencies and
international
institutions,
including UN,
OECD, WB, IMF,
Eurostat
Atributes
Computation methodologies
Reference
information
on
indicators
Statistics
Strategic goals
International
standards and
agreements
Normative
documents
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Cluster analysis results
(based on 410 KNI provided by World Bank with 2000-2008 time frame)
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Cluster analysis results
(based on 119 competitiveness indicators provided by WEF 2010)
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KNI identification with Data Mining techniques
410 indicators
36 countries
time frame 2004 – 2008
Global
Competitiveness
Index
Uncovering hidden patterns
with Data Mining
techniques
Revealed dependencies of
Global Competitiveness Index on KNI
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Statistically significant KNI
Significant indicators identified with convenient statistical techniques
Socio-economic development indicator
Correlation coefficient
Number of Internet users, per 100 citizens
0.879
Life expectancy at birth, years
0.736
GDP per capita, PPP US$
0.716
Female survival to age 65, % of cohort
0.702
Population ages 65 and above, % of total
0.516
Significant indicators identified with Data Mining techniques
Socio-economic development indicator
Correlation coefficient
Agricultural raw materials imports, % of merchandise imports
-0.083
Electricity production from oil sources, % of total
-0.332
Urban population growth, annual %
-0.107
Foreign direct investment, net inflows, % of GDP
0.034
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Problem of development metrics transparency
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Socio-economic development comparison
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Results of complex KNI assessment
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Results of complex KNI assessment
Country C
Country B
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Problem of development potentials comparison
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Conceptual space for development potential assessment
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Results of KNI assessment
with imitation modeling of development programs
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Interval-based assessment of investment projects
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Capability indicator at a critically low level
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Information technology
improvements in management and audit
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The practice of comprehensive audit
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Indicators for comprehensive evaluation
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The architecture of comprehensive audit
Performance audit
Analyze and diagnose the
results of FA and PA
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