Transcript NCESF2016_Root causes of food insecurity in ET 07-12 - ilri

Root causes of food insecurity
in Ethiopia
07th
David Mogollon
December 2016 – Addis Abeba
Introduction

Significant economic growth

Progress in poverty reduction and access to
basic services

However, still high vulnerability, poverty,
food insecurity, malnutrition.

Chronic food insecurity – humanitarian
assistance.
Introduction
20,000,000
Food assistance MT
3,500,000
Number of Beneficiaries
18,000,000
3,000,000
16,000,000
2,500,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
2,000,000
10,000,000
1,500,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
1,000,000
4,000,000
500,000
2,000,000
Number of food aid beneficiaries
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
1995
0
El Niño humanitarian crisis

El Niño phenomenon
Drought

Assistance for: 10,2 M (HRD) + 7,9M (PSNP)
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Significant resource mobilisation
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Now Indian Ocean Dipole
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Focus on the short-term.
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Only drought?
Root causes: Demographic growth

High
Demographic
growth: 2,5%
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Though fertility
rate decreasing.

Demographic
transition
Root causes: Demographic growth
Root causes: Demographic growth
Consequences:

Overpopulation

Pressure on
resources
• Access to land
• Access to food
• Access to water
• Degradation Natural
environment
Root causes: Demographic growth
Root causes: Climate factor
Average Precipitation (mm/year)
Israel
South Africa
Spain
Germany
USA
The Netherlands
Italy
Belgium
Ethiopia
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2d Root causes: Climate factor

Overall rainfall: 848mm / year.
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No insufficiency of water
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95 smallholder farmers rain-fed agriculture
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Water harvesting / storage capacities
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Climate change
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Less and more erratic rainfall
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Different impact
Root causes: Agricultural sector

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Agriculture: Livelihoods of 77% population.
Challenges
• Productivity
• Dependence on rain-fed agri.
• Land tenure
• Shrinking land size
• Access to finance
• Access to technology
• Inputs: seeds & fertilisers
Root causes: wider economy trends

Past High economic growth: Agriculture
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Limits absorption of rural population
livelihoods

Manufacturing & services
opportunities
GTP I
Private sector


Job
Root causes: wider economy trends
Structural transformation will reduce share of agri. in employment
Starting at $600 of per capita GDP, a 2.5 % growth over 20 years may lead to a reduction in labor
share of agriculture from 52% to 40%, thereby possibly reducing the relative exposure to shocks
Root causes: Focus Vulnerable areas
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Overpopulation – Carrying capacity.
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Limitations alternative livelihoods.

Dependent on Humanitarian and development
assistance
Basic services, food distribution
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And then what…?
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Are we part of the problem (incentives)?

Internal Mobility as a coping strategy
Supporting the transition
Demographic challenges:

Accelerate demographic transition
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Carrying capacity and Internal mobility

Management of rural to urban transition
The climate factor:
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Water harvesting and storage capacities
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Adaptation to climate change
Supporting the transition
Performance of the agricultural sector:
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Transforming the agricultural sector, land policy,
access to land, land use & consolidation, etc.
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Tackling land degradation
The wider economic aspects:
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Prioritise job creation
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Support industrial development

Enabling environment for private sector
Supporting the transition
In relation to vulnerable areas:

Analysis carrying capacity / economic potential
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Building resilience
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Linking humanitarian and development
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Facilitation Mobility: Mobil Safety Nets, social
integration, skills, intermediation, etc.

Integrate early warning systems
Sustainability
Supporting the transition
Improve coordination among
partners at different levels