Transcript Population (Unit 2)

Population
AP Human Geography
Unit 2
Ecumene
…the portion of the earth with
permanent human settlement, has
expanded to cover most of the
world’s land area…possibilism?
Distribution of World
Population
• Sparsely populated
regions
• Dry
lands
– Cold lands
• Wet
lands
– High lands
World Population Density
Europe
East Asia
North America???
South Asia
Southeast Asia
Arithmetic Population Density
Arithmetic population density is the number of people per total land area.
Physiological Density
Physiological density is the number of people per arable land area. This is a good
measure of the relation between population and agricultural resources in a society.
Natural Increase Rates
The natural increase rate (NIR) is the
percentage growth or decline in the
population of a country per year (not
including net migration).
Simple vs. Compound Interest
Compound
Simple
$100.00 + $10.00 = $110.00
$110.00 + $11.00 = $121.00
$121.00 + $12.10 = $133.10
$133.10 + $13.31 = $146.41
$146.41 + $14.64 = $161.05
$161.05 + $16.10 = $177.15
$177.15 + $17.72 = $194.87
$194.87 + $19.49 = $214.36
$100.00 + $10.00 = $110.00
$110.00 + $10.00 = $120.00
$120.00 + $10.00 = $130.00
$130.00 + $10.00 = $140.00
$140.00 + $10.00 = $150.00
$150.00 + $10.00 = $160.00
$160.00 + $10.00 = $170.00
$170.00 + $10.00 = $180.00
Conclusion: At 10% it takes less then 8 years for compound interest to double the
initial amount. If we continued, we'd find that the amount tripled in 12 years,
quadrupled in 15 years, etc.
Crude Birth Rates
The crude birth rate (CBR) is the total number of births in a country per 1000 population per
year.
Crude Death Rates
The crude death rate (CDR) is the total number of deaths in a country per 1000
population per year.
•Why is Europe so high?
Total Fertility Rates
The Total fertility rate (TFR) is the number of children an average woman in a society will
have through her childbearing years.
Infant Mortality Rates
The infant mortality rate is the number of infant deaths per 1000 live births per year.
Life Expectancy at birth
Life expectancy at birth is the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live.
What is a model?
• …an abstract generalization of
real-world geographies that share
a common pattern
• …assumptions of reality that may
be valid and may not, but don’t
exist
Demographic Transition Model
--Warren Thompson (1887-1973),
American Demographer
• Birth and death rates change
because…
• Changes in economic systems (from traditional
to industrial, etc.)
• Changes in information about health and
healthcare
• Changes in people’s attitudes about family size
Demographic Transition Model
Demographic Transition in England
Industrial Revolution
Population Pyramid by Stage
US Population Pyramid
Population Pyramid: Bar chart that shows the age and sex
structure of the population
Percent of Population under 15
About one-third of world population is under 15, but the percentage by country varies from
over 40% in most of Africa and some Asian countries, to under 20% in much of
Europe…Dependency Ratio
Population Pyramids in U.S. cities
Rapid Growth in Cape Verde
Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about 1950, is
experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history reflects the impacts of
famines and out-migration.
Moderate Growth in Chile
Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, and it entered
stage 3 in the 1960s.
Low Growth in Denmark
Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the 1970s,
with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows
increasing numbers of elderly and few children.
Thomas Malthus
• What is overpopulation?
• Carrying capacity
• “Worldly Philosopher”
• 18th Century England
• An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798
• What did Malthus miss???
• Neo-Malthusians (Doomers) vs. Cornucopians (Boomers)
• Critics
Food &
Population,
1950-2000
Malthus vs.
Actual Trends
Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food
production actually expanded faster than population in the 2nd half of the 20th
century.
A more optimistic approach
• Ester Boserup (1910-1999)
• Wrote “The Conditions of
Agricultural Growth” in 1965
• Opposite to Malthus
• People have resources of knowledge and technology to
increase food supply as necessary
Boserup’s main points
• Environments have limits that restrict population
• But these limits can be changed using technologies
• Population growth is the trigger for innovation to allow food
supply to increase
• e.g. irrigation, weeding, crop intensification, better seed
quality, tools, techniques etc
Was Boserup right?
• Evidence which supports Boserup:
• Increasing intensity of shifting cultivation
• Move from ‘slash and burn’ practices to using irrigation in rural
areas with higher population densities
• The Green Revolution – widespread introduction of high-yielding
varieties, pesticides etc
• Hugely increased yields allowed more people to be fed
• GMOs – Genetically Modified Organisms
Was Boserup right?
• Boserup admits that overpopulation can lead to unsuitable
farming practices which may degrade the land
• E.g. population pressure as one of the reasons for
desertification in the Sahel region
What Do You Think?
Skills Check
Directions: Using the graphs/charts provided answer the following questions.
1. Are there more men or women in the country represented in Chart C
between the ages of 60 and 70? Why might this be the case?
2. Which population pyramid represents Stage 4 of the Demographic
Transition model? What are some of the problems this country is most
likely facing? Provide an example of a country in this stage.
3. Which population pyramid represents Stage 2 of the Demographic
Transition model? What demographic characteristics of this country are
apparent based on the graph? Provide an example of a Stage 2 country.
4. Which population pyramid represents Stage 3 of the Demographic
Transition model? What type of population growth are they
experiencing? (ie. low, moderate, high, zero) What region would we
typically find countries in this stage?
5. Sketch the outline of a typical population pyramid for a country
experiencing decreasing population. ie. “Stage 5”
Population Policies
• Two approaches
to addressing
overpopulation:
• Economic
Development
• Distribution of
Contraceptives
“High Mortality=Fast Population Growth”
Crude Birth Rate Decline, 1980-2005
Crude birth rates declined in most countries during the 1980s and 1990s (though the
absolute number of births per year increased from about 120 to 130 million).
Population Policies:
India
• How do democracies
institute population
controls?
• How might their
programs differ from
authoritarian
regimes?
“Wait until the 1st child is
3 before having your 2nd”
China’s Lost Girls
1. Describe the Chinese government’s approach to slowing
population growth.
2. Based on the video, as well as information from your text
and handouts, how successful has the program been?
3. Describe the unintended consequences of the Chinese
policy.
4. After watching the video, do you believe that this policy is
something that should be instituted in other countries? Be
sure to provide support for your opinion.
Population Policies: China
Population Policies: China
In the 1970s the Chinese government had issued three
policies to reduce the birth rate: “Later, longer, fewer”
• Late marriage – men were encouraged to marry no
earlier than 28 years old (25 in rural areas) and
women no earlier than 25 years old (23 in rural
areas).
• Longer spacing between births – couples were
encouraged to allow at least a four-year gap after
the first child before having another baby.
• Fewer children – it was suggested that urban
families should be limited to two children, and rural
families to three children.
Population Policies: China
Article 47 This Law shall go into effect as of September 1, 2002.
(the law began in 1979)
• Article 18 The State maintains its current policy for
reproduction, encouraging late marriage and childbearing and
advocating one child per couple.
• Article 22 Discrimination against, maltreatment and
abandonment of baby girls are prohibited.
• Article 27 The State shall issue to a couple who volunteer to
have only one child in their lifetime a “Certificate of Honour for
Single-Child Parents”. Couples who are issued the said
certificate shall enjoy rewards.
• Article 35 Use of ultrasonography or other techniques to
identify foetal gender for non-medical purposes is strictly
prohibited. Sex-selective pregnancy termination for
non-medical purposes is strictly prohibited.
• Article 41 Citizens who give birth to babies not in compliance
with the provisions of Article 18 of this Law
shall pay a social maintenance fee prescribed by law.
Population Policies: China
One-Child Policy…Two-Child Reality
• There are no criminal sanctions for couples who have multiple
births.
• Wealthy couples are increasingly turning to fertility medicines
to have multiple births, due to the lack of penalties against
couples who have more than one child in their first birth.
• If both parents are only children they are allowed to
have more than one child provided the children are spaced
more than 4 years
• In most rural areas if the first child is a girl couples are allowed
to have another child
• Families who have children with mental or physical disabilities
are sometimes allowed to have another child
• Some parents manage to be outside the country or in Hong
Kong, Macau, or Taiwan when giving birth to their child. Those
children do not count in the one-child policy, even if they are
technically a natural born Chinese citizen through parentage.
Population Policies:
China
Population Policies: China
China is expected to be overtaken by India as the
world’s most populous country in the next 25 years.
2012 China Population: 1,343,239,923
2012 India Population: 1,205,073,612
2050 Projected Population: 1,424,000,000
2050 Projected Population: 1,807,000,000
Pop. Growth Rate: 0.481% (2012)
Pop. Growth Rate: 1.312% (2012)
Population Policies: USSR
• Pro-Natalist
• Germany prior to/during WWII, Singapore, Iran
• Starting on July 8, 1944 the government of the U.S.S.R. began
awarding medals to women in order to encourage a high fertility
rate.
Epidemiologic Transition
Stage 1: Pestilence & famine (Black Plague)
Stage 2: Receding pandemics
• Urbanization/population issues—Cholera (John Snow)
Stage 3: Degenerative & human-caused diseases (cardiovascular
disease, “heart attack” & cancer)
• Decline in infectious disease
Stage 4: Delayed degenerative diseases (cardiovascular disease
& cancer)
Stage 5: Emergence & reemergence of infectious & parasitic
diseases (AIDS, SARS, TB, Ebola, West Nile, etc.)
• Why a return to infectious disease?
Cholera
in
London,
1854
By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water pumps in Soho, London, Dr. John
Snow identified the source of the water-borne epidemic.
Tuberculosis Death Rates
The tuberculosis death rate is good indicator of a country’s ability to invest in health care.
TB is still one of the world’s largest infectious disease killers.
Avian Flu, 2003 - 2006
The first cases of avian flu in this outbreak were reported in Southeast Asia.
HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2005
Uganda
Botswana
Zimbabwe
South Africa
The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and China have large
numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present.
AIDS in Africa Video
1. Which countries/programs were at least
somewhat successful in preventing the
spread of AIDS?
2. What strategies worked for groups and
countries when trying to stop the AIDS
epidemic in Africa?
3. What can/should MDC’s (ie. the United
States) and pharmaceutical companies
do, if anything?