Transcript Demographic Transition Model

Demographic Transition Model
Demographic transition
• A process of change in a society’s population
in which high birth and death rates are
replaced by low birth and death rates
• The model is based on the change in the CBR
and CDR over time.
Demographic Transition Model
• Proposed in the 1930s and 1940s, by two
demographers, Pearl and Reed to explain
demographic changes observed in Western
Europe between the late 18th and early 20th
centuries caused by economic changes from
agrarian, peasant societies to developed
industrial societies
• Based on the experience of Western Europe,
particularly England and Wales
Demographic Transition Model
Assumptions
• All countries will pass through all stages of the
model
• Industrialization and urbanization are critical
• Education of all segments of the population is
critical
Stage 1
• Traditional rural society (based on hunting and
gathering or simple agriculture)
• High birth rates are typical as families try to
have many children.
• Children are considered an economic asset
• High death rates due to infectious disease,
accidents, and warfare
• Overall growth of the population is slow
Stage 2
• Introduction of industrial revolution into society
causes dramatic and long term changes to
demographic patterns
• Improvements in health care care and sanitation
causes marked declines in death rates, especially
among children
• Birth rates remain high as people have not
adopted artificial birth control
• Children still considered economic asset
• Overall, population grows dramatically and
exponentially
Stage 3
• Modernization of industrial society causes further
improvement in health care and establishment of
child labor laws
• Children can be considered economic liabilities
(i.e, more mouths to feed)
• Introduction of contraceptives along with delayed
marriages causes decline in birth rates as well
• Education of women
• Urbanization of society
Stage 4
• “post modern” society in which both death
and birth rates are very low (e.g., zero to two
children per couple are common).
• Society more concerned with chronic disease
than with infectious disease
• Very slow population growth, or zero
population, or decline is common
Criticisms/Limitations
• Many demographers questions the
generalization of the model to all places and
all times
• Appears less useful for explaining the
demographic history of countries in the LDCs
Why?