Transcript S. Kapitza
WHAT A PHYSICIST CAN SAY ABOUT GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH Sergey P. Kapitza Institute for Physical Problems Russian Academy of Science, Moscow 2 3 4 5 WORLD POPULATION FROM 2000 BC TO 3000 AD 1 -- DATA OF BIRABEN, 2 -- BLOW-UP, 3 -- DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, 4 -- STABILIZED POPULATION, 5 --ANCIENT WORLD, 6--MIDDLE AGES,7--MODERNITY, 8--RECENT HISTORY PASSAGE THROUGH THE POPULATION TRANSITION 1– FRANCE, 2 – GERMANY, 3 – RUSSIA, 4 – USA, 5 – MAURITIUS, 6 – SRI LANKA, 7 – COSTA RICA, 8 – WORLD 8 WORLD DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION ANNUAL GROWTH AVERAGED OVER A DECADE 1 – DEVELOPED AND 2 – DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 9 MAIN ASSUMPTIONS MADE IN MODELING • GLOBAL POPULATION IS A DYNAMIC SYSTEM • MANKIND IS A SINGLE SPECIES Homo sapiens • SYSTEM IS COUPLED BY INTERACTIONS • GROWTH IS STATISTICALLY DETERMINED AND DYNAMICALY SELF-SIMILAR, HENCE IT SCALES • LIMITS OF SCALING ARE SET BY LIFE SPAN • GROWTH IS PROPORTIONAL TO SQUARE OF GLOBAL POPULATION AND IS NON-LINEAR MAIN RESULTS OF MODELLING GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH BLOW-UP OF POPULATION GROWTH: GROWTH RATE: dN N 2 , dT C dN C C dT (T1 T ) 2 (T1 T ) 2 2 GROWTH BEFORE AND AFTER: T1 2000 : CONSTANTS: T1 2000, POPULATION LIMIT: N K 2 12 109 , 45, BEGINNING: 176 109 C N ' 2025 T T1 T N T T1 cot 1 C K C 62000 PEOPLE WHO EVER LIVED: T0 K 4.4 106 , 2 INSTANTANEUS EXPONENTIAL GROWTH: P0,1 2.25K 2 ln K 100 109. 1 dN 1 100 % N dT Te T1 T 11 PRINCIPAL RESULTS OF THEORY • GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT DESCRIBED THROUGHOUT ALL OF HUMAN EXISTENCE • GROWTH IS CULMINATED BY DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION — A REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE • GLOBAL POPULATION LIMIT AT 10 –12 BILLION • PEOPLE, WHO LIVED ON EARTH 100 BILLION • PERIODS OF PAST HISTORY AND PREHISTORY SEEN ON A CONTRACTING TIME SCALE • INTERNAL FACTORS DETERMINE TRANSITION, AND NOT BY ENVIRONMENT OR RESOURCES 12 POPULATION OF THE WORLD 1750–2200 1 – PROJECTIONS BY IIASA AND UN, 2 – MODEL, o – 1995 3 – BLOW-UP, 4 – DIFFERENCE OF MODEL AND PROJECTIONS x 5 times POPULATION OF MANKIND FROM ORIGINS AND INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE Growth and development of mankind Table 3. Growth and development of humankind, shown on a logarithmic scale Epoch Period Date year Number Cultural period T of people years Events in history, culture, and technology Global population limit 12109 2200 11 10 2050 9 109 2000 6 109 1955 3 x10 9 1840 1 x10 9 C T1 11 10 9 8 7 B 6 5 4 3 2 1 A T0 1500 500 AD 108 2000 BC 9000 107 29,000 80,000 0.22 Ma 10 6 0.6 Ma 9 Stabilizing global Population Changing age distribution 125 Globalization World demographic Revolution 45 Urbanization Internet 45 Biotechnology Computers Recent 125 World Wars Electric power Modern 340 Industrial revolution Printing Geographic discoveries Fall of Rome Christ, Muhammad Greek civilization Ancient World 2500 India, China, Buddha, Confucius Mesopotamia, Egypt Writing, Cities Neolithic 7,000 Bronze and iron metallurgy Domestication and agric ulture Middle Ages 1000 Mesolithic 20,000 Moustier 51,000 Acheulean 1.4105 Microliths America populated Shamanism Homo sapiens Language Speech, Fire Chelles 3.8105 Europe and Asia populated Hand axes 1 106 Choppers Homo habilis 1.6 Ma 105 Olduvai 4 - 5Ma (1) Anthropogenesis 3 106 Hominida separate from Hominoids 14 15 AGE DISTRIBUTIONS IN THE DEVELPED AND DEVELOPING WORLD IN 1975 AND 2000 16 CHANGE IN AGE DISTRIBUTION FOR GLOBAL POPULATION 1 – AGE GROUP YONGER THAN 14 YEARS, 2 – OLDER THAN 65 YEARS 3 – OLDER THAN 80, A – DEVELOPING, B – DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 17 CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION DEMOGRAPHIC • • • • • • • • Zero growth rate Stabilized population New age structure New time structure Ethnic changes Massive migrations ? Changes in mobility ? Predominance of old generations setting challenges for health and social security ECONOMIC • Further globalization • Alternative of stagnation or new development ? • Deindustrialization • Transition to an information society • Expansion of services: health,education,science • Emergence of new priorities and values in consumption,environmnt 18 PRINCIPLES OF META-ECONOMICS • RIGHT FROM THE BEGINNING, GROWTH OF MANKIND WAS DETERMINED BY GENERALIZED INFORMATIONAL FACTORS THAT MODERATED SOCIAL EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPNENT • THE GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION TO A STABILIZED POPULATION IS DETERMINED BY THE LIMITS OF THE INFORMATION SOCIETY • THE FUTURE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE «SOFTWARE» — CULTURE OF AN INFORMATION DOMINATED WORLD, RATHER THAN THE «HARDWARE» OF INDUSTRY, AS IN THE PAST 19 DEINDUSTRIALIZATION: TOTAL U.S. WORK FORCE IN 20-th CENTURY WHAT DRIVES DEVELOPMENT? ‘THE FAILURE TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE ROOTS OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOUR LIE IN THE REALM OF CONSCIOUSNESS AND CULTURE LEADS TO THE COMMON MISTAKE OF ATTRIBUTING MATERIAL CAUSES TO PHENOMENA THAT ARE ESSENTIALLY IDEAL IN NATURE.’ FRANCIS FUCUYAMA 21 ISSUES IN THE POST — TRANSITION WORLD • IS THE DOMINANCE OF THE MARKET, WITH ITS SHORT RANGE TIME SCALE A REACTION TO D.T. • CAN THE DILEMMA OF SELF-ORGANIZATION v.s. ORGANIZATION FIND ITS RESOLUTION • CAN A DECREASE IN MILITANCE BE EXPECTED IN A WORLD WITH A STABILIZED POPULATION ? • CAN IN THIS WORLD LONG RANGE SOCIAL ISSUES BE FACED BY GLOBAL GOVERNANCE, NOW CONSPICIOUSLY ABSENT ? • WILL GLOBAL PROBLEMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE IN AN EMERGENT NEW WORLD ?