Transcript Snímek 1
Demography and Ageing Ageing- Challenge and opportunity Group C2 28.4.2008 European Social policy (SM508) Outline of the presentation I. An overview of the contemporary situation II. Why is the ageing population a challenge to deal with III. Demographic change – from challenge to opportunity I. Main European demographic trends and data Population by Age and Sex 1950 - 2050 Source: http://www.china-europe-usa.com/level_4_data/hum/011_7.htm Median age of the EU population 1950 –2050 Sources: United Nations, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision, (http://esa.un.org/unpp). 2004; Ifo Institute calculations. http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/ifoContent/N/rts/rts-mitarbeiter/IFOMITARBSINNCV/CVSinnPDF/CVSinnPDFrefjournalsbis2006/ EUROPE-DEMOGRAPHIC-DEFICIT-221004.PDF Total fertility rate - 2006 - number of children per woman Source: Eurostat Total fertility rate in the EU-25, 1960– 2003 Source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/PT119v2.pdf Total fertility rate Source: Eurostat Old-age-dependency ratio - % (2007) The ratio between the total number of elderly persons of an age when they are generally economically inactive (aged 65 and over) and the number of persons of working age (from 15 to 64) Projected old-age dependency ratio % 2005-2050 Source: Eurostat II. Impact on the labour market, productivity and economic growth Summary of the previous: Working-age population will decrease Not an abstract long term, but a perspective of the next 10 years!!! Higher age is connected with higher spendings on health and longterm care and social services. Higher proportion of people in pension age (beneficiaries) in relation to people at work (contributors) will cause, unless the social system changes, rising budget deficits. Impact on social security and public finances In numbers: Age related public spendings are expected to rise by 3-4 GDP points between 2004 and 2050. Expected changes in the population structures will lead to changes in economy, decline of annual growth to just 1,2 % between 2030-2050 III. Demographic change – from challenge to opportunity European Commission Communication on The demographic future of Europe – from challenge to opportunity, 2006 – 5 key areas Promoting demographic renewal in Europe Promoting employment in Europe: more jobs and longer working lives of better quality A more productive and competitive Europe Receiving and integrating immigrants in Europe Sustainable public finances in Europe: guaranteeing adequate social security and equity between the generations Promoting demographic renewal in Europe balance between job and family universal access to assistance services for parents (crèches, kindergartens, local schools) flexible working hours friendly financial environment equal for men and women Desired number of children Federal Institute for Population Research http://www.bosch-stiftung.de/content/language1/downloads/PPAS_en.pdf Promoting employment in Europe: more jobs and longer working lives of better quality integration of women and older people into the labour market (Lisbon Strategy) increase of retirement age to 67 remove all disincentives for older people to continue working flexible labour market protection rules lifelong learning healthy working conditions and lifestyle elimination of discriminatory prejudices generous parental leave may be compensated by a higher integration of older people into the labour market Reasons why older people leave work Source: European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/ewco/2004/06/EU0406NU05.htm A more productive and competitive Europe Europe needs to invest in new technologies (Lisbon Strategy) R&D crucial Lisbon Strategy: not less than 3% of GDP x reality: EU 2004 average 1,89% GDP (USA-2,68 Japan-3,18) Link between universities and private sector Improvement of education possibilities (knowledge based economy) Lifelong learning Better access to distance learning Niche market: older people have special needs and demands – the market should be able to satisfy them Receiving and integrating immigrants in Europe Europe is ageing x population in the third world is growing Should Europe promote higher domestic birth rate or higher immigration? Knowledge based economy = lack of labour force => need for immigrants balance between rights and responsibilities of immigrants and host societies (countries) coordination of European immigration policies Sustainable public finances in Europe: guaranteeing adequate social security and equity between the generations European population is ageing => tax base is falling => financing of social security through taxes is unsustainable => necessity of reform rise of retirement age to 67 private savings and insurance as a supplement to state pensions and insurance offer seniors financial incentives to stay longer in the labour market or allow them to have supplementary income lifelong coefficient = pensions are adapted to rising longevity (Finland) Conclusion Overall strategy is necessary All goals/focus areas are interconnected The success of one goal depend on the performance in the other Necessity to look on the problem globally and not to be limited only on one area The social security system needs to be reformed if Europe wants preserve its place in the world Sources European Commission, Green Paper on Confronting demographic change: a new solidarity between the generations, 2005 http://ec.europa.eu/employment_social/news/2005/mar/comm2005-94_en.pdf European Commission, Communication on The demographic future of Europe – from challenge to opportunity, 2006 http://ec.europa.eu/employment_social/news/2006/oct/demography_en.pdf European Parliament, Resolution on Demographic challenges and solidarity between the generations, 2006 http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-//EP//NONSGML+TA+P6-TA-20060115+0+DOC+PDF+V0//EN&language=EN Cichon, M., The Ageing Debate in Social Security: Barking Up the Wrong Tree?, Leo Wildman Symposium, 1995 http://www.ilo.org/public/english/protection/secsoc/downloads/publ/ageing.pdf Holzmann, R. et all., Pension Reform in Europe: Process and Progress, The World Bank, 2003 http://www1.worldbank.org/sp/doc/PensionReformEurope.pdf http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/PT119v2.pdf The World Bank, Averting the Old-Age Crisis: Policies to Protect the Olda n Promote Growth, The World Bank, 1994 http://www.china-europe-usa.com/ European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/ewco/2004/06/EU0406NU05.htm Thank you for your attention..