Transcript Growing Old, Growing Young: Demographic Challenges

Growing Old, Growing
Young: Demographic
Challenges
Hussein A. Sayed
Growing Old, Growing Young:
Demographic Challenges
 The main theme of the session is actually
emphasizing the demographic challenges facing
nations and subpopulation as a result of their
different level of progress within the demographic
transition process.
 The same conclusion was also confirmed by the
papers presented, although limited to the
Australian experience, but it can be also
observed at various levels:
* Global / Regional
* National
* Sub-national
Growing Old, Growing Young:
Demographic Challenges
 Besides their demographic implications, they will
have clear implications for the measurement of
progress, assuming that already have a common
consensus of what various stakeholders mean by
progress?
 The presentations and the position elaborated
yesterday showed different views about what is
meant by progress for different groups and
organs depending on various factors including
the level of those concerned, the context and the
time factor.
Growing Old, Growing Young:
Demographic Challenges
Major prevailing demographic challenges
that
need
to be elaborated include:
 The changing age structure of the
population;
 Global Ageing;
 Migration; and,
 Population characteritics.
Demographic Transition: The
Changing Age Structure
 Long-term
changes in fertility and mortality
resulted in fundamental population dynamics that
was reflected on the age structure.
 The speed and depth of such changes varies,
across nations and subpopulations, depending
on their place within the demographic transition
process.
 Such differences can be noticed for different
regions and globally, as shown in Table 1,
representing the expected average annual growth
rates during the period 2005- 2050.
Table (1)
Average Annual Rate of Change of the Total Population and the Population in
Broad Age Groups, By Major Area, 2005-2050 (Medium Variant)
0-14
15-59
60+
80+
Total
population
World
0.01
0.63
2.39
3.37
0.75
More developed regions
-0.14
-0.38
1.10
2.13
0.05
less developed regions
0.03
0.82
2.88
4.19
0.89
Least developed countries
1.02
2.15
3.32
4.03
1.84
Other Less developed countries
-0.29
0.54
2.84
4.21
0.68
Africa
0.87
2.00
3.12
3.86
1.69
Asia
-0.29
0.47
2.70
4.04
0.64
Europe
-0.36
-0.75
0.90
1.98
-0.24
Latin America and the Caribbean
-0.38
0.61
2.98
3.99
0.74
North America
0.23
0.37
1.67
2.30
0.62
Oceania
0.09
0.65
2.11
2.89
0.81
Major areas
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of United Nations Secretariat (2005)
World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision. Highlights. New York: United Nations.
Demographic Transition: The
Changing Age Structure
 Significantly low average annual rate of change
for the age group 0-14 years. With the exception
of the least developing countries, the rate is very
low and even negative for developed regions and
parts of the less developed countries. This is
mainly the result of continuous low birth rates.
 Similar trend is noticed for the age group 15-59
years, although the differences between
developed and developing countries is becoming
more obvious.
Global Ageing
 Population dynamics, accompanied by significant
improvements in health and longevity among the
elderly are leading to growing percentages of
ageing populations and growing rates of old age
dependency.
 Table 2 show a different pathways to the changes
in the age structure, leading to growing old and
growing young populations at different parts of
the world.
 The prevalence of two population models is
clearly seen, at the regional level, reflecting the
varying impact of population dynamics (fertility
and mortality).
Global Ageing
 The percentage of the population of age 60+
years amounted to 20% in the developed regions
compared to only 11% in developing countries.
 The trend is expected to continue manifesting in
2050 (32% compared to 20% respectively).
 Significant differences are observed across
regions, the percentage of population 60 years or
over in Africa (2006) amount to 5 % compared to
21% for Europe and 17% for North America,
confirming the prevalence of two models at
various levels.
Table (2)
Population Ageing (60 Years or Over) 2006
Percentage
Area or Region
Number (thousands)
2006
2050
Percentage
of total
population
2006
80 years or over
2050
2050
2006
World
687 923
1 968 153
11
22
13
20
More developed regions
247 753
400 029
20
32
19
29
less developed regions
440 170
1 568 124
8
20
10
18
Least developed countries
39 593
171 191
5
10
7
10
Africa
48 709
192 884
5
10
8
10
Eastern Africa
13 670
55 015
5
8
8
9
Middle Africa
5 125
18 708
5
6
7
8
Northern Africa
13 240
60 646
7
19
8
13
southern Africa
3 723
6 943
7
12
8
19
Western Africa
12 951
51 572
5
9
7
8
Table (2)
Population Ageing (60 Years or Over) 2006
Percentage
Area or Region
Number (thousands)
2006
2050
Percentage
of total
population
2006
80 years or over
2050
2050
2006
Asia
374 802
1 231 237
9
24
11
19
Eastern Asia
193 263
506 956
13
32
12
25
South- Central Asia
121 964
481 018
7
19
9
15
South - eastern Asia
45 117
174 959
8
23
9
16
western Asia
14 458
68 304
7
18
9
14
151 841
225 373
21
34
18
28
Eastern Europe
53 893
77 065
18
34
14
20
Northern Europe
20 517
31 916
21
30
21
29
Southern Europe
34 355
53 504
23
39
19
31
Western Europe
43 075
62 888
23
34
20
34
Europe
Table (2)
Population Ageing (60 Years or Over) 2006
Percentage
Area or Region
Number (thousands)
2006
2050
Percentage
of total
population
2006
80 years or over
2050
2006
2050
50 971
188 652
9
24
14
21
4 289
11 497
11
25
15
24
Central America
11 389
50 748
8
24
13
20
South America
35 293
126 407
9
24
14
22
North America
56 866
118 114
17
27
21
28
4 733
11 893
14
25
19
26
Latin America and the Caribbean
Caribbean
Oceania
Source:
Population Division of the Department of economic and social Affairs of United Nations Secretariat (2006)
Global Ageing
 The ageing process would continue globally,
across regions and countries as can be seen
from Table 2.
 By 2050, the percentage 60 years and over is to
reach 22% and such percentages would be
doubled for almost all developing regions, but the
gap between developed and developing countries
would narrow.
 Similar percentage for Europe and North America
would reach 34 and 27 % respectively.
Global Ageing: Overall Impact
 Successful ageing leading to maximizing desired
outcomes, i.e. “ adding life to years, not years to
life”.
 AS stated by ageing experts, successful ageing is
the confluence of three functions:
* Avoidance of disease and disability;
* High cognitive and maintain physical and
mental functioning;
* Involvement in society and being active with
life.
Global Ageing: Overall Impact
 The aspirations of this growing group and their
challenges need to reflected in measuring
progress.
 Various aspects of life for this group include:
* Health transition, morbidity and disability;
* Marital status changes & intergenerational
relationships;
* Family structure and the changing norm of the
nuclear family;
* Living arrangements;
* Work participation;
* Retirement and social security benefits.
Table 3 presents some characteristics of this group.
Table (3)
Population Ageing characteristic (60 Years or Over) 2006)
Demographic Challenges: Migration
 Migration trends, similarly affected the changes
in the age structure;
 Migration stocks from developing countries might
benefit from the better conditions in the receiving
countries, but the benefits for the former are
affected by many factors;
 Managed migration programs are based on
circular migration, short-term movements and
incentives for return back. This will affect
population dynamics in different ways .
 A new type of data collection mechanisms are
required.
Demographic Challenges:
Population Characteristics
 Human development aspects including
health, education and economic growth;
 Gender
concerns, especially among
ageing population;
 Special groups needs and absorbing them
within the society ( disability and people
with psychological disorder)
 Level of HIV/AIDS epidemic and death,
especially in some region such as Africa.
Demographic Challenges and
Measuring Progress
 Measurement
of progress that takes into
such demographic challenges,
consideration
would require:
* Identifying the aspirations and desirable
outcomes for various groups and locations;
* A combination of aggregate and distributional
measures to respond to the needs of various
special groups and geographic locations;
* Improving the quality of primary data and
widening the scope of measurements to take
contextual aspects into consideration.
Demographic Challenges: Data
Requirements
 Providing primary quality data for various defined
administrative level;
 Collect information to monitor the situation of
subpopulation groups, especially the ageing, to
enable countries to develop better policies in that
respect(such as the Health & retirement study of
the USA) while at the same time develop systems
to collect information on children;
 Collect development information on international
migration, especially that some countries are
benefiting from this to help stem the decline of
population size and working-age.
Measuring Progress
 Measuring
progress is a dynamic
continuous process that depend on the
perception of progress:
 GDP considered a measure of progress in
goods &services
 HDI is mainly concerned with expanding
abilities to make informed choices
 Progress in that continuum should be
concerned with capacity to achieve/realize
informed choices.