Transcript Demographic Transition, the Emergence of Childless Families, and

Demographic Transition, the Emergence
of Childless Families, and Economic
Growth in East Asia
Francis T. Lui
(HKUST)
Conference in Honor of
Robert Lucas & Nancy Stokey
1
Human Capital and Growth
• In my neighborhood in Chicago I bring my shirts to a
laundry operated by a Korean woman, recently arrived,
whose English is barely adequate to enable her to
conduct her business…..As I enter, her 3-year-old
daughter is seated on the counter, being drilled in
arithmetic—which she is very good at and clearly
enjoys enormously. Fifteen years from now this girl will
be beginning her studies at Chicago or Caltech,
alongside the children of professors and Mayflower
descendants.
(Lucas, Lectures on Economic Growth, p. 17)
2
Demographic Transition (1)
120
100
GDP per Capita
80
60
40
20
0
0
-20
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Total Fertility Rate
3
Demographic Transition (2)
9
8
Total Fertility Rate
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Life Expectancy at Birth
4
Surprisingly Low Total Fertility Rates in
East Asian Economies
World
2.58
Japan
1.21
USA
2.05
South Korea
1.21
European Union
1.51
Taiwan
1.21
China (National)
1.33
Singapore
1.14
China (Cities)
0.928
Hong Kong
1.09
China (Beijing City)
0.617
Macau
0.91
China (Rural Areas)
1.638
5
Emergence of Childless Families in
Some Economies
• Hong Kong (2006): 32% of 40-to-44-years old
women have no children
• China (2005): 25.7% of the 50-years-old women
have no children
• Germany: 29% of the women born in 1966 have
no children (38.5% among university-educated
women)
• UK: 25% of the women born in 1970 and who
have university education will likely remain
childless
6
Implications of Childlessness on
Growth
• All the usual implications about aging societies
• There may be a break-down in the tradeoff
between quantity and quality of children
(corner solution in quantity) because for a
significant proportion of families there are no
children to invest in
• Saving behaviors may change; welfare policies
may change; directions of international flows
of capital may change
7
Demographic Structures
Economy
0-14 years old (%)
15-64 years old (%)
> 64 years old (%)
World
27.2
65.2
7.5
EU
15.44
67.22
17.34
China
19.8
72.1
8.1
Japan
13.5
64.3
22.2
South Korea
16.8
72.3
10.8
Taiwan
16.7
72.6
10.7
Hong Kong
12.3
74.6
13.1
Singapore
14.4
76.7
8.9
8
Factors Causing the Emergence of
Childless Families
• Factors pertaining to the Demographic Transition:
long life expectancy; rising level of human capital
of young adults
• Other factors such as crowdedness in the cities
• Cultural differences do not seem to be a good
explanation
• Confucian ethics: The most important virtue of
all is filial piety. The greatest disrespect to the
ancestors is not having any children
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East Asian Governments Invest
Relatively Little in Education?
Economy
Rank
(out of a sample of 182
economies)
Public Expenditure on
Education as a share of
GDP
South Korea
85
4.6
Greece
91 (Median)
4.4
Hong Kong
112
3.9
Japan
128
3.5
Singapore
122
3.7
China*
146
3.0
Macau
161
2.4
10
Some Conjectures
• Claim 1: East Asian societies believe in the importance of
education
• Claim 2: Traditional culture in East Asia is conducive to large
numbers of children
• Are these claims contradictory to the points raised in the
previous 2 slides?
• East Asian families invest heavily in the education of their
children
• Despite this, most parents cannot attain their goal of
sending their children to top universities.
• The private marginal cost of having children is very high
• May need more public expenditures on education, or more
leading private universities to appear
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