Transcript Population 2 - GEOCITIES.ws

LECTURE 2 : Malthus, Boserup and Meadows
Thrust of the lecture
• Postulation about the relationship between population &
resources
• Malthus attempts to depict a ‘grave’ world in the future
•Boserup optimistic about the future, technology helps
to increase the volume of resources
•Meadows projects a decline in industrial output and increase
in the level of population in the future
Relationships between Population and Resources
Variable situations
Ro
P
E
1
L
L
H
2
L
H
H
3
L
H
L
With low resources, high population and high expectation,
maladjustment sets in readily as shown in situation 2.
Thomas Malthus ( 1766-1834)
• A British economist who hypothesized that the supply of
food cannot keep pace with the increase in population
•He used the ‘ Law of Diminishing Returns’ to explain this
economic principle
•In his article ‘ Principle of Population’ he described that
population increases geometrically while food supply increase
only in an arithmetic ratio.
•This could happen if the population is unchecked
•He showed that gluts of unsold goods could arise from
‘ under-consumption’.- challenged the doctrine that supply
creates its own demand.
Essence of Malthus’s theory
Increase in population------> increase in food demand
Less food available
Increase in Mortality
Decrease in pop
growth
Decrease in fertility
Malthus Theory
He used the food supply ceiling to explain the concept of
carrying capacity.
Population crisis
X
Total
Pop.
Food supply ceiling
Y
Maladjustment
occurs
Time
Concept of Carrying Capacity by Malthus
• Carrying capacity(Cc) is used to denote the capability
of the environment to support a given population based
on the available resources so that an acceptable SOL
can prevail in the society
•Beyond Cc, society will not function properly - there will
exist social and economic deficiencies.
• A cyclical pattern of pop growth takes place
• Pop and Ro will adjust themselves if either one of them
change to create an equilibrium situation.
Criticism to Malthus Theory
•He underestimated the pace of economic development that
can create economic wealth
•The widespread use of birth control methods check
on pop. Growth
•Emigration as a solution to reduce PPR in some areas
•Economic development creates low fertility rate
•He ignored the use of technology that can increase resource
base of the nation
Boserup Theory
• Boserup had an optimistic view of the world
•She saw population growth not a problem but a ‘ blessing
in disguise’ as population growth stimulates innovation
• ‘ Necessity is the mother of invention’- mankind will think
of ways to improve the economic situations
•She researched on the food production and population in
a subsistence agricultural economy
•A great believer of modern farming techniques can alleviate
hunger the world over
Boserup theory in essence
Increase in Population
Increase in demand for food
Improved technologies( increase in food ss)
Population increase unchecked
Criticism of Boserup’s Theory
•Considered only carbohydrate food as the measurement
for self-sufficiency in food in-take.
•The impact of physical factors like severe drought that can
reduce food production is not taken into consideration
•She did consider time as a factor in agricultural innovations
•The economic principle does not consider the advent of
global economy to the given society- possibility of emigration
to relieve PPR was never mentioned.
Meadow’s Limits To Growth
•The model attempts to show a pessimistic outlook of
the future world
•The theory encapsulates the idea that resources are fixed and
that technology cannot increase Ro forever.
•Industrial output and resource utilization leads to the
environmental destruction and pollution
•This has severe repercussion to the community - productivity
will be severely affected as resources deplete
Limits to growth Model
High
resources
pop
pollution
food
Low
1900
2100
Time
What the theory encapsulates
•In the early 1900, population grows steadily and food
production grows faster than pop.
•After 2000, population grows geometrically while food
supply at arithmetical rate
•The depletion of resources is due to an increase in the
industrial development
•Pollution level will increase indefinitely that will mar the
environment
•A check on population will occur as pollution level increases
and sharp decline in the resource base of a country occurs
Criticism of Limits to Growth Model
• Ignore that social changes that are taking place can reduce
population growth- fertility declines due to industrialization
and urbanization
•Economic changes and efficient use of resources can avert
this situation
• Technology can be used to make an efficient use of
resources
Estimation of the World Resources
• ELDC will have to increase 4x their food supply by 2000
•The world’s food supply must increase 3 x in the future
•Water and energy resources will be in near depletion due
to pollution and abuse of resources
•Other raw material, land and basic amenities will be in short
•supply
The world governments must think of ways to increase food
production and efficient use of resources to avert the
worst scenario as depicted by Meadows.