Transcript Population Geography

Do Now:
• The world population today is over 7 billion
people, with most living in East and South
Asia. How and/or why does 20% of the
worlds population live in one region?
• What factors are taken into consideration?
Aim: What is the demographic
transition?
Crude Birth Rate
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 to 2.5 children per
woman is considered “replacement level.”
Crude Death Rates
Infant
Mortality Rate: - the number of
deaths of children under the age of 1, per
thousand of
the general population.
Life
Expectancy : The average number of years an
individual can be expected to live, given current
social, economic, and medical conditions.
Dependency Ratio
• The number of people under the age of 15
and over age 64, compared to the number of
people active in the labor force.
Population
under the age of 15 - usually shown
as a percentage of the total population of a country
- dependency age is 0-15
What is the Demographic
Transition?
 The shift from high to low mortality and
fertility through four distinct stages.
 Based on the experience of Western
Europe’s Industrial Age.
 Began by Warren Thompson in 1929.
 Further developed in 1945 by Frank
Notestein
 A sign of socio-economic progress?
The Classic Demographic Transition
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Birth rate
Natural
increase
Death rate
Time
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
Stage 1 - High Fluctuating
Reasons
 Birth Rate is high as a result of:
 Lack of family planning
 High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in
the 'bank'
 Need for workers in agriculture
 Religious beliefs
 Children as economic assets
 Death Rate is high because of:
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High levels of disease
Famine
Lack of clean water and sanitation
Lack of health care
War
Competition for food from predators such as
rats
 Lack of education
 Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the
Least Economically Developed Countries
(LEDC's) today.
Crude Birth Rate: High
40-50 / 1,000
Crude Death Rate:
High
40-50 /
1,000
Natural Increase Rate:
None
0 / 1,000
Today, no country in
the world is in Stage 1.
Stage 2 - Early Expanding
 Reasons
 Death Rate is falling as a result of:
 Improved health care (e.g.
Smallpox Vaccine)
 Improved Hygiene (Water for
drinking boiled)
 Improved sanitation
 Improved food production and
storage
 Improved transport for food
 Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
 Typical of Britain in 19th
century; Bangladesh; Nigeria
Crude Birth Rate: High
40+ / 1,000
Crude Death Rate:
Lower
15 /
1,000
Natural Increase Rate:
Very High 25+/1,000
Stage 3 - Late Expanding
 Reasons
 Family planning available
 Lower Infant Mortality Rate
 Increased mechanization
reduces need for workers
 Increased standard of living
 Changing status of women
 Typical of Britain in late 19th
and early 20th century; China;
Brazil.
Crude Birth Rate:
Lower
20 /
1,000
Crude Death Rate:
Low
10 /
1,000
Natural Increase Rate:
Low
10 / 1000
Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating
• Reasons
– Economy is settled
– Fully developed Middle Class
– Political stability
• Typical of USA; Sweden;
Japan; Britain
Crude Birth Rate:
Low
10 /
1,000
Crude Death Rate:
Low
10 /
1,000
Natural Increase Rate:
None
0 / 1,000
Is the model universally applicable?
• Like all models, the demographic transition model
has its limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict,
several factors and events:
– 1 Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below death
rates (Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the first
time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps
the model should have a fifth stage added to it.
– 2 The model assumes that in time all countries pass
through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely,
however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will
ever become industrialized.
Continued
 3 The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the
consequence of industrialization. Initially, the death rate in many British
cities rose, due to the insanitary conditions which resulted from rapid
urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances were made in
medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries
has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities. In
many countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage 3 has been less rapid
than the model suggests due to religious and/or political opposition to
birth control (Brazil), whereas the fall was much more rapid, and came
earlier, in China following the government-introduced ‘one child’ policy.
The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian
countries such as Hong Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they
develop at a much faster rate than did the early industrialized countries.
 4 Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe
(USA, Canada, Australia) did not pass through the early stages of the
model.
World Health Threats
• This transition occurs as a country undergoes the
process of modernization or economic development.
Less economically developed countries have higher
rates of infectious diseases as standards of medical
care are lower than that found in more economically
developed countries.
• In more economically developed countries, more
people die from degenerative diseases as infectious
diseases such as cholera and typhoid are easily
treated, causing more people to die from cancers as
they live longer.
Epidemiologic Transition- stage 1
• The first transition was from hunting-gathering to
primary food production. During this transition,
infectious and parasitic diseases became prevalent.
The shift to agriculture provides a more sedentary
way-of-life and this creates more opportunities for
contact with infected animals and human waste (i.e.
vectors and vehicles of transmission).
Epidemiologic Transition –stage 2
• The second epidemiological transition
occurred in modern times with infectious
diseases under control and chronic,
noninfectious, degenerative diseases rising.
This second epidemiological transition is
typically in the wealthy or developed
nations. Developing nations still suffer from
infectious diseases more than chronic
diseases.
Epidemiologic Transition- stage 3
• The stage of generative and human-created
diseases, characterized by a decrease in
deaths from infectious diseases and an
increase in chronic disorders associated
with aging. Two important chronic
disorders are cardiovascular diseases and
various forms of cancer
Epidemiologic Transition- stage 4
• The stage of delayed degenerative diseases.
The major degenerative causes of deathcardiovascular diseases and cancers. Life
expectancy of older people is extended
through medical advances
Epidemiologic Transition-stage 5
• The stage of reemergence of infectious and
parasitic diseases. Infectious diseases
thought to have been eradicated or
controlled have returned, and new ones
have emerged.
Cholera in London, 1854
Fig. 2-23: By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water
pumps in Soho, London, Dr. John Snow identified the
Tuberculosis Death Rates
Fig. 2-24: The tuberculosis death rate is good indicator of a
country’s ability to invest in health care. TB is still one
HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2005
Fig. 2-26: The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan
Africa. India and China have large numbers of cases, but
lower infection rates at present.
• Population Pyramidsdisplay a country’s
population in a bar graph
form.
• Each 5 year group with the
youngest 0-4 years old at
the base of the pyramid are
called cohorts.
• Males are shown on the left
side and females are shown
on the right.
• A wide-based pyramid
indicates a country in Stage
2 of the Demographic
transition.
Population Pyramids –
Charts that show the percentages of each age group in the
total population, divided by gender.
For poorer countries, the chart is shaped like a pyramid.
Infant mortality rates are high, life expectancy is shorter.
Population Pyramids
Charts that show the percentages of each age group in the
total population, divided by gender.
For wealthier countries, the chart is shaped like a
lopsided vase. Population is aging, TFRs are declining.
Population Policies
• Expansive Policies or ProNatalist policies encourage
large families e.g. Fascist
Italy, Nazi Germany, Soviet
Union & Ceausescu’s
Romania & Mao’s China.
• Eugenic Population
Policy-Nazi Germany
favored “Aryans” over
mentally ill or other
undesirables.
• The Nazis tried to breed the
super race of Nordic or
Aryan types.
Population Policies
• Restrictive or Anti-Natalist
Policies discourage births.
• Policies vary- e.g. despite
Vatican policies, most Catholic
Italians practice artificial birth
control-Philippines (only Asian
Catholic country) a different
case-govt. restricts birth
control.
• Some countries have learned
that industrialization &
urbanization do as much as
government policy in
controlling births.
China’s One Child Policy
What are some of the limitations, unintended consequences, and
contradictions found in government policies toward population
growth?
Geography of Demography
• Recognized minorities (3%)
of pop. were exempt
• Many rural Chinese defied
rule, hid pregnant women,
failed to register births,
prevented inspectors from
visiting rural villages.
• Government took drastic
action:
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Violators were fired
Land was confiscated
Lost all benefits
Pregnant women were arrested
& forced to have abortions
Geography of Demography
• First 6 years 70 million
abortions
• 1980s about 20 million
sterilizations a year-3X as
many women as men.
• Party Members were birth
control police-got cash and
promotion for enforcing the
laws.
• 1984 One Child Policy was
relaxed in the countryside-a
couple with a daughter-2nd
child after 4 years.
Geography of Demography
• China’s One-Child Policy created
a generation of 90 million
• 119 boys for every 100 girls
• 30 million unmarried men by 2020
• 45% of Chinese women said they
don’t intend to wed.
• 3/10 families have grandparents
living with them
• Biggest demographic revolution in
history-Number of Elderly is
rising-by 2050 about 30% of the
population will be over 60-no
pensions or social security.
• In 1798 he published An
Essay on the Principle of
Population
• Malthus was the first to
sound the alarm that the
world’s population was
expanding more rapidly
than food production.
• He was the first to
recognize exponential or
geometric population
growth.
• Today those who share his
concerns are NeoMalthusians
Rev. Thomas Malthus
1766-1834
Food & Population, 1950-2000
Malthus vs. Actual Trends
Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster
than food production, but food production actually
Thomas Malthus
Neo-Malthusians
Critics of Malthus
Population is growing
faster than Earth’s food
supply
Population increased
geometrically; food supply
increased arithmetically
•Transfer of medical
technology leads to a rapid
increase in population in
poor countries
•World population is
outstripping a wide variety
of resources
•Wars and civil violence
will increase because of
scarcity of food and other
resources
•Large populations
stimulate economic growth
• Poverty, hunger, and
other social welfare
problems are a result of
unjust social and economic
institutions
Malthus Theory and Reality
• Food production increased more rapidly than
predicted because of technology.
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Internal combustion engines
Artificial fertilizers
Pesticides
Irrigation pumps
Advanced plant and animal hybridization
techniques
– Refrigeration
– Tin can for packaging
THE END