Transcript Chapter 2: Population

Chapter 3: Population
Key Issue 4:
Why might the world face an
overpopulation problem?
Malthus
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Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)
Consequences:
Essay on the Principle of
Population 1798
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Population Growth vs Food
Supply
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Population growing too fast for
food supply
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Pop grows geometrically while
population growths arithmetically
Example:
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Today- 1 person, 1 unit of food
25 years- 2 people, 2 u.o.f.
50 years- 4 people, 3 u.o.f.
75 years- 8 people, 4 u.o.f
Population growth would
press against available
resources
Disease, famine, war would
ensue
Neo-Malthusians
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Two problems even
worse than in Malthus’
time
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Malthus failed to
anticipate that poor
countries would have
rapid pop growth
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Resource gap wider than
Malthus assumed
World pop is outstripping
resources
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Not just food production
Malthus’s Critics
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Unrealistically pessimistic
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Malthus based theory on idea
that supply of resources is
fixed, not expanding
Larger pop can stimulate
economic growth
Malthus’s arithmetic –
capitalism (Engels’ Theory)
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Too few people can retard the
economy just as too many
Resources should be shared
equally
Economic development
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Poverty, hunger, etc. caused by
lack of economic development
with unjust social and
economic institutions NOT
population growth
More people = more power?
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Political leaders in Africa
More pop = more men in army
Reality
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Conditions last halfcentury do not
support Malthus
theory
Food production has
increased dramatically
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Green revolution
Wheat production X2
Slowed recently?
Declining Birth Rates
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Food production increased
more than Malthus predicted
Malthus’s model expected
that the pop would
quadruple but it didn’t
Rate of Natural Increase is
decreasing
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More deaths or less births
Exception LDCs
Reasons for declining birth rate
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Economic Development:
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lowering birth rates
improve economic
conditions
women more likely to
attend school
increased knowledge of
family planning
better health care
programs
Distribution of Contraceptives
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World can’t wait for
economic improvement
LDC’s demand is greater
than supply
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Still is occurring
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Bangladesh, Colombia,
Morocco, Thailand
Has not spread to Africa
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Reflects the status of
women
Contraceptives a religious
issue and political issue
India
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Became independent
1947
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Began a population
planning program in 1950’s
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Today sterilization is
making a comeback
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Census in 1960’s reveals
extreme growth
During the 1970’s the
Indian government began
a policy of forced
sterilization of any man
with three or more
children.
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3.7 million were sterilized
Public outcry and opposition
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Propaganda now
encouraging “small”
families
India gendercide
China’s One Child Policy
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Forced abortion
World Health Threats
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Epidemiologic transition:
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focuses on distinctive
causes of death in each
stage of the demographic
transition
Epidemiology:
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Branch of medical science
concerned with the
incidence, distribution,
and control of diseases
that affect large numbers
of people
Epidemiologic Transition Stage 1 & 2
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Stage 1: Pestilence and
famine
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Infectious and parasitic
diseases were principal
causes of human death
Malthus called these
“natural checks”
Example:
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Stage 2: Receding
Pandemics
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Black Plague
Pandemic is a disease
that occurs over a
wide and affects a
very high proportion of
the population
Industrial revolution
helped slow spread of
disease
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Not immediately
Example:
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Cholera
Black Plague
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Bubonic plague
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Worst stage 1 case
From Kyrgyzstan brought
by Tatar army
Spread from urban areas to
rural areas
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Western Europe 1348
Northern Europe 1349
Wiped out entire villages
and families
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United States- 25 million died
China – 13 million died
Cholera
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Stage 2
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Pandemic: disease occurs over
a wide geographic area
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Poor people crowded into
industrial cities
½ million in NYC died in 1832
1/8th population of Cairo 1831
Geographic Models the key to
understanding
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Edwin Chadwick (1800-1890)
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Residents in poorer
neighborhoods had higher
incidences of Cholera
Dr. John Snow (1813-1858)
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Mapped distribution of deaths
in London
Not a cause of sinful behavior
Water pumps the cause
Stages 3 & 4
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Stage 3: Degenerative and
human-created diseases
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characterized by a decrease in
deaths from infectious deaths
and chronic disorders
associated with aging
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Cardiovascular disease
cancer
Decline in infectious diseases
has been sharp in stage 3
countries
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Recently LDCs recently moved
from stage 2 to stage 3
Effective vaccines
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Stage 4: delayed
degenerative diseases
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Cardiovascular disease and
cancer still linger but life
expectancy extended
Improved healthcare
Improving behaviors as well
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Better diet
Reduced use of tobacco,
alcohol, and exercise
Stage 5 ????
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Stage of reemergence of
infectious diseases and
parasitic disease
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Old and new have
emerged
Three reasons:
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Evolution
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Poverty
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Microbes evolved,
changed = resistant
Example: Malaria
TB in LDCs
Long, expensive treatment
Improved travel
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H1N1