Transcript Presentation - Minnesota State Legislature

ONE MINNESOTA CONFERENCE
Susan Brower, Minnesota State Demographer
January 2015
GROWTH IN MINNESOTA’S
“OLDER ADULT” POPULATION
Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands)
85
1950s
55
60s
71
70s
67
80s
91
47
90s
00s
-
-
-
-
-
10s
20s
30s
40s
2050s
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center
GROWTH IN MINNESOTA’S
“OLDER ADULT” POPULATION
Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands)
335
285
85
1950s
55
71
67
60s
70s
80s
97
91
47
90s
00s
10s
20s
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center
30s
66
56
40s
2050s
AVG. WORKERS ADDED PER YEAR
MINNESOTA , 16 +
38,000
32,000
25,000
13,000
8,000
4,000
1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections
Labor force
participation
Working-age
population
growth
Productivity
growth
Real
GDP
growth
STATES’ RISING ED ATTAINMENT &
GROWTH IN PRODUCTIVITY
Source: EPI analysis of unpublished total economy productivity data from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) Labor Productivity and Costs program, state employment data from BLS Local Area
Unemployment Statistics, and college attainment data from the Current Population Survey basic
monthly microdata
BLACK, LATINO AND ASIAN POPULATIONS
GROWING RAPIDLY
Populations of color, MN
300,000
250,000
American Indian
Asian
Black
Hispanic
Two or more races
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center
GAPS IN EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT
AND ATTAINMENT EXIST ACROSS
RACIAL GROUPS
Source: Tabulated by MN Compass from Minnesota Department of Education data
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MN HISTORY:
MORE 65+ THAN SCHOOL-AGE BY 2020
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
18-24
65+
5-17
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2060
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
Source: U.S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center
DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS WILL CHANGE
DEMAND FOR PUBLIC SERVICES
General Fund Expenditures
2014-2015
Higher
Education
8%
All other
areas
19%
Health &
Human
Services
31%
K-12
Education
41%
Within Health & Human
Services
 Medical Assistance
Expenditures: 25% of GF
spending (8.5 billion)
 Medical Assistance
Expenditures for the Elderly
and Disabled: 16% of GF
spending (5.5 billion)
 MA expenditures include
basic care, long -term care
waivers and long -term
institutional care
Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013. House Research, Long-Term
Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE WILL SHAPE THE
FUTURE…BUT NOT COMPLETELY DETERMINE IT
Our demographic future is sobering IF we
continue to adhere to the policies and
institutions that we have built for our
demographic past.
Aging trend will bring new opportunities;
license to innovate new pathways to wellbeing.