Transcript Darwin Homelessness Data Study

The Seven D's of Demography in
the Northern Territory
Census insights to government strategy
Acknowledgements:
NT Treasury
NT Dept Housing
Northern Territory Growth Planning Unit
NT Dept Health and Families
NT Dept of Business and Employment
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[email protected]
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Background
Study
Site
NT historically poorly serviced by national
demographic analysis
• The excuse of small numbers
• Resources concentrated elsewhere
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But demographic issues as intense there as
anywhere else
• 'growth ambitions' – economy, political
representation
• Highly mobile population, 'split' population
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NT Government/
CDU
Partnership
Study Site
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Try and get more NT input into NT research
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Build capacity in critical areas – like demography
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Lead by NT Treasury
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Now in 8th year
• Built around the output of a population
projections model
• But the vision of 'learn more about NT
population'
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Today's
Presentation
Study Site
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How analysis of Census data has helped us take a
new approach to modelling Nt population
Framed around the seven d's – the core
characteristics of our population which models
must account for
Linked to how our research has led to new
thinking, new strategies, new endeavours in NT
government
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D ifferent
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Problem – why can't we
better forecast
migration patterns?
Not core-periphery,
means migration
occurs in different ways
Used by DBE to
develop new strategies
for skilled labour
recruitment
D iverse
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Problem – why don't
regional populations
change consistently?
Averages are often
meaningless because
they are mid point of
two extremes
Used by NTT to inform
population projections
model
D ynamic
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Problem – how do we
account for sudden changes
in key demographic
indicators?
Influences often come from
outside the NT system
Used by NTG inter-agency
committee to re-assess
'trends' in demographic
change
D etailed
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Problem – ageing
workforce, declining pool
of young 'escalator'
migrants
Decisions by a few people
can change relatively large
populations – in this case,
new 'escalators' emerge
Used by NT Health to
develop new strategies for
nurse recruitment and
retention
D ependent
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Military
Mining
Construction
Public service 'projects'
Intra-NT FIFO
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Problem – how do we
manage growth in the
Darwin region?
Urban migration patterns
are different because new
arrivals expect to stay
short-term
Used by NT GPU to develop
master plan for new
satellite city of Weddell
D istant
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Problem – where will people
leaving remote communities
go to?
Step migration is difficult due
to constraints on access to
nearby communities and
'friction to distance'
Used by Dept Housing to
inform strategies for
managing 'long grass'
populations in Darwin. Also
ending 'zero net migration'
assumption
D elicate
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Problem – how do we plan
for the future of remote
(Indigenous) communities?
Enormous amount of
diversity – many of the
'myths' don't apply
universally
Used by Dept Regional
Services to establish 'place
based' planning framework
Conclusion
Colleagues from the 'remote' world are thinking up other 'Ds'
for us to explore – disparate, DIY, desired...
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The issue in the past has always been about poor Census data
as a numbers issue
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We have taken the approach that Census data is BAD and
that what is needed is good models for using it
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Census data analysis has been the start of the sorts of projects
described here, not the full story
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Our new understandings have helped us project what we
might get from 2011 census...
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Anticipating 2011
Continuing trends – masculinisation of Darwin, feminisation
of Alice Springs, increased Indigenous mobility, workforce
ageing, growth focused on Top End
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Outcomes from post-2006 influences
• Northern Territory Emergency Response
• Boom and nearly bust of oil and gas sector
• Retirement bubble in public sector workforce
• Housing crisis, increased FIFO and e-commute
Hopefully we are starting to have the tools that will enable us
to interpret whatever it is we do find!
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