Transcript NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Performance of the
Philippine Economy
Third Quarter 2011
Presented by
ROMULO A. VIROLA
Secretary General
National Statistical Coordination Board
28 November 2011
Slide No. 0
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Economic Performance
(Growth rates, in percent)
Third Quarter
2010
2011
3.2
8.2
3.6
6.9
1.6
9.2
2.1
5.7
-3.4
12.1
-2.4
2010
2011
GDP
7.3
GNI (GNP)
NPI (NFIA)
Slide No. 1
Q1 to Q3
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Seasonal Adjustment
(Growth rates, in percent)
2010
Q4
GDP
GNI (GNP)
Slide No. 2
Q1
2011
Q2
Q3
0.4
1.9
0.5
0.3
0.8
0.5
0.1
0.4
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Confidence Intervals
for the True Growth Rate
of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Slide No. 3
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Per Capita GDP, GNI, HFCE
(Growth rates, in percent)
Third Quarter
GDP
GNI (GNP)
HFCE (PCE)
Slide No. 4
Q1 to Q3
2010
2011
2010
2011
5.3
4.9
0.5
1.2
6.2
1.7
-0.3
5.1
7.1
0.8
0.2
4.0
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Major Industries
(Growth rates, in percent)
Third Quarter
Q1 to Q3
2010
2011
2010
2011
-2.0
1.8
-1.9
4.7
Industry
9.8
-0.2
13.6
1.4
Services
7.8
5.3
7.4
4.7
AHFF
Slide No. 5
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Seasonal Adjustment
Major Industries (Growth rates, in percent)
2010
2011
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
AHFF
1.8
1.7
2.8
-3.9
Industry
1.4
3.0
-4.2
0.3
Services
-0.4
1.4
2.8
1.2
Slide No. 6
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Contributions to GDP Growth
Q3 2011
AHFF
Industry
Services
GDP
Slide No. 7
0.2
-0.1
3.0
3.2
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Agriculture, Hunting, Fishery & Forestry
(Growth rates, in percent)
Third Quarter
2010
2011
Slide No. 8
AHFF
Palay
Corn
Coconut / copra
Sugarcane
Banana
Mango
Pineapple
Coffee
Cassava
Rubber
Other crops
Livestock
Poultry
Agri. Activities
Forestry
Fishing
-2.0
-23.8
-0.4
0.2
-81.3
3.1
10.8
1.2
-0.9
6.2
3.5
4.3
0.1
11.3
8.0
-48.2
2.8
1.8
19.7
-6.0
-0.6
208.4
1.0
-8.4
4.1
-2.2
5.6
4.4
-7.1
2.6
4.8
1.7
14.0
-6.1
Q1 to Q3
2010
2011
-1.9
-13.3
-13.9
1.0
-10.4
2.0
7.7
1.2
-0.3
7.1
2.5
4.6
1.2
7.7
2.8
-27.5
-0.2
4.7
16.0
15.9
-3.2
76.5
1.0
-6.6
2.9
-5.4
5.1
5.7
-2.4
1.4
4.0
4.6
34.2
-3.8
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Agriculture, Hunting, Fishery & Forestry
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Q3 2011
AHFF
Slide No. 9
1.77
Palay
Corn
2.76
-0.51
Coconut incl. Copra
-0.03
Sugarcane
Banana
0.10
0.05
Mango
-0.19
Pineapple
Coffee
0.08
-0.01
Cassava
0.06
Rubber
Other crops
0.02
-0.43
Livestock
0.38
Poultry
0.51
Agri. Activities
Forestry
0.14
0.06
Fishing
-1.22
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Industry
(Growth rates, in percent)
Third Quarter
2010
2011
Q1 to Q3
2010
2011
9.8 -0.2 13.6 1.4
Mining & Quarrying 6.8
1.1 12.9 7.1
Manufacturing
8.4 3.1 13.1 5.5
Construction
15.6 -12.2 17.6 -12.8
Elec. Gas & Water Supply 10.1
-1.0 10.1 -1.9
Industry
Slide No. 10
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Industry
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Q3
2011
Industry
Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing
Construction
Elec. Gas & Water Supply
Slide No. 11
-0.2
4.33
0.0
1.00
2.1
2.00
-2.1
3.00
-0.1
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Manufacturing
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Third Quarter 2011
TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF MFG.
1.61
Chemical & Chemical Prod.
1.60
Furniture and Fixtures
Radio, TV and Comm. Equip. & Apparatus
1.56
Miscellaneous Manufactures
1.02
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery
0.91
LEAST CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH
Footwear & Leather & Leather Products
0.00
Non-Metallic Mineral Products
0.09
Slide No. 12
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Manufacturing
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Third Quarter 2011
NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF MFG.
-4.67
Food Manufactures
-0.35
Textile Manufactures
-0.27
Basic Metal Industries
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus
-0.25
Transport Equipment
-0.07
Slide No. 13
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Services
(Growth rates, in percent)
Third Quarter
Q1 to Q3
2010
2011
2010
2011
7.8
Transport., Stor., & Comm. 3.0
Trade
11.0
Financial Intermediation
13.1
Real Estate, Renting & Bus. Actvts.
6.6
Pub Administration
6.5
4.4
Other Services
5.3
4.9
3.8
3.6
7.6
5.4
7.0
7.4
0.9
9.8
4.7
4.4
2.1
7.3
6.9
2.2
6.1
Services
Slide No. 14
8.9
6.9
7.9
8.4
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Services
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Services
Transport.,Stor., & Comm.
Trade
Financial Intermediation
Real Estate, Renting & Bus. Actvts.
Pub. Administration
Other Services
Slide No. 15
Q3
2011
5.39.1
2.95
0.6
1.74
1.2
1.61
0.4
1.57
1.5
0.68
0.4
0.55
1.2
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 3rd Quarter 2011
GROWTH RATE
INDICATOR
Employment
- Agriculture
- Mining and Quarrying
- Manufacturing
- Transportation, Comm & Storage
- Trade
- Community, Social & Personal
Services
Mean Hours Worked
- Community, Social & Personal
Services
Slide No. 16
Up by 4.5 %
Up by 1.3 %
Up by 15.9 %
Up by 4.3 %
Up by 4.1 %
Up by 8.5 %
Up by 19.5 %
Up by 17.5 %
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 3rd Quarter 2011
INDICATOR
Manufacturing
- Value of Production Index
- Volume of Production Index
- Capacity Utilization
- Value of Net Sales Index
- Volume Of Net Sales Index
- Producers Price Index
Slide No. 17
GROWTH RATE
Up by 3.2
Up by 2.5
Up by 0.1
Up by 14.2
Up by 13.4
Up by 0.8
%
%
%
%
%
%
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 3rd Quarter 2011
INDICATOR
Water Gross Billed Volume
Water Gross Sales
GROWTH RATE
Up by 4.7 %
Up by 3.4 %
Transportation , Communication and
Storage
- Rail Ridership ( Volume of
Passengers)
- Rail Ridership (Gross Revenue)
- Subscriber base (cellular)-stock
- Subscriber base (fixed line) - stock
- Broadband Subscriber- stock
Slide No. 18
Up by 2.1 %
Up by 2.4 %
Up by 9.5 %
Up by 4.2 %
Up by 24.9 %
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 3rd Quarter 2011
INDICATOR
Revenue/Sales from Selected Key
Industry Players
- Tansportation (Water)
- Communications
- Real Estate
- Selected Fast Food Chains
GROWTH RATE
Up by 9.0 %
Up by 2.9 %
Up by 15.9 %
Up by 17.6 %
Imports Of capital Goods (FOB value in
million US$) (Jul-Aug)
Up by 3.7 %
Tourist/Visitor Arrival
Up by 12.0 %
CPI Inflation for Q3 2011
Up by 4.5 %
Peso Appreciation Q3 2011
Up by 5.9 %
Slide No. 19
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Expenditure
(Growth rates, in percent)
HFCE
GFCE
Construction
Durable Equip.
BSOD
Q1 to Q3
2010
2011
2.8
5.9
7.1
-1.7
Exports of Goods
Exports of Services
Imports of Goods
17.1
17.6
-0.3
-1.1
26.6
5.5
21.0
-10.6
9.9
0.2
9.4
-14.8
-2.5
0.6
18.6
27.0
0.2
4.3
27.4
2.5
23.5
-10.0
10.4
0.4
7.6
-3.9
-3.1
5.5
Imports of Services
27.6
0.2
19.4
-3.7
Intellectual Prop. Prod.
Slide No. 20
Third Quarter
2010
2011
2.4
7.1
-6.5
9.4
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Expenditure
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
2011
Q3
4.7
0.9
HFCE
GFCE
Construction
Durable Equip.
BSOD
Changes in Inventories
Intellectual Prop. Prod
Net Exports
GDP
Slide No. 21
-0.9
1.0
0.0
4.2
0.1
-8.2
3.2
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Construction
(Growth rates, in percent)
Third Quarter
2010
Construction
Public
Private
Slide No. 22
2011
Q1 to Q3
2010
2011
17.1 -10.6 18.6 -10.0
-23.4 -21.3
8.8 -46.4
35.7 -7.8 23.9
7.2
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Top 5 Exports of Goods
(In percent)
Contributors to Grow th
C ont r i but i ons
Growth
Rates
t o Gr owt h
276.4
1.70
15.8
0.44
707.5
0.25
Cathodes & Sections of Cathodes, of
Refined Copper
63.9
0.21
Consumer Electronics
17.6
0.17
Automotive Electronics
Articles of Apparel & Clothing
Accessories
Sugar
Slide No. 23
Q3 2011
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Bottom 5 Exports of Goods
(In percent)
Least Contributors
to Grow th
C ont r i but i ons
Growth
Rates
t o Gr owt h
Components/Devices
(Semiconductors)
-30.3
-20.28
Communication/Radar
-48.0
-0.85
-3.9
-0.41
Other Products Manufactured from
Materials on Consignment Basis
-12.9
-0.26
Coconut Oil
-22.2
-0.23
Electronic Data Processing
Slide No. 24
Q3 2010
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Top 5 Imports of Goods
(In percent)
Contributors to Grow th
Transport Equipment
Q3 2011
Growth
Rates
C o n t r ib u t io n s
t o G r ow t h
24.8
1.15
106.5
1.08
Electronic Data Processing
13.5
0.99
Machinery and Mechanical Appliances
19.3
0.92
Electrical Machinery
29.3
0.72
Telecommunication
Slide No. 25
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Bottom 4 Imports of Goods
(In percent)
Least Contributors
to Grow th
Q3 2010
C ont r i but i ons
Growth
Rates
t o Gr owt h
Cereals
-26.9
-1.00
Feedstuff
-26.2
-0.24
Metalliferous Ores & Metal Scraps
-44.9
-0.22
-3.4
-0.03
Paper Products
Slide No. 26
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Net Primary Income
Third Quarter
Q1 to Q3
2010
2011
2010
2011
4.3
-22.6
3.8
-3.7
9.5
-3.6
11.0
-24.1
10.3
-3.1
11.8
-2.9
0.0
Property Expense
-13.2
Total
-13.2
NET PRIMARY INCOME
5.7
0.0
-5.6
-5.6
-3.4
0.0
-5.7
-5.7
12.1
0.0
-8.5
-8.5
-2.4
INFLOW
Compensation
Property Income
Total
OUTFLOW
Compensation
Slide No. 27
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
OFW Details
Third Quarter
2010
2011
Compensation
in Dollars (in billion)
in Peso (in billion)
Slide No. 28
17.7
800.1
18.6
793.7
Growth
Rate
5.0
(0.8)
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Effects of Typhoon Pedring
Growth Rates
AHFF
GDP
Actual
If Typhoon Pedring
had not happened
Slide No. 29
1.8
3.2
5.2
3.5
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
GDP Scenarios for Q3 2011
Growth Rates
Construction
GDP
Actual
Scenario
-12.2
0.0
3.2
3.8
33 B
Php
28.9 B
Php
Slide No. 30
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
GDP Scenarios for Q4 2011
Growth Rates
GDP
2010
2011
2011 Target Q1 to Q3
Q4
Q1 to Q3
Lower
Upper
Slide No. 31
4.5
5.5
8.2
8.2
6.1
6.1
3.6
3.6
Q4
6.9
10.6
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Second Quarter 2011 Revisions
(Growth Rates as of August 2011 and as of November 2011)
PRODUCTION
AHFF
AGRICULTURE & FORESTRY
FISHING
INDUSTRY
MINING & QUARRYING
MANUFACTURING
CONSTRUCTION
ELEC., GAS & WATER SUPPLY
SERVICES
TRANS., STORAGE & COMM
TRADE
FIN. INTERMEDIATION
RERBA
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
OTHER SERVICES
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
NPI
GROSS NATIONAL INCOME
Slide No. 32
Preliminary
Revised
Contribution
A s o f A ug 2011
A s o f No v 2011
to Revisio n
7.1
10.2
-2.6
-0.6
3.0
4.8
-16.1
-2.0
5.0
5.3
1.2
9.9
5.7
7.3
5.8
3.4
-2.8
1.9
8.2
11.5
-2.4
-2.3
3.0
4.7
-23.3
-3.4
5.4
4.2
1.9
11.6
6.9
5.4
5.9
3.1
-3.4
1.5
0.11
0.11
0.00
-0.59
0.00
-0.02
-0.53
-0.05
0.19
-0.08
0.11
0.11
0.13
-0.10
0.02
-0.29
-0.16
-0.38
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
1. Change in the Schedule of Release of the National
Accounts Linked Series (2000=100), 1946-2007
The national accounts linked series (2000=100), 1946-2007, will be
released on 21 December 2011, instead of October 2011.
For inquiries, please contact, Director Raymundo J. Talento of the
NSCB Economic Statistics Office at telephone numbered: 895-2481 or
email address: [email protected]
Slide No. 33
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
2. Approved FDI up by 32.0 percent in Q3 2011
Total foreign direct investments (FDI) approved in the third quarter of 2011 by
the major investment promotion agencies amounted to PhP 25.0 billion, 32.0
percent higher than the PhP 19.0 billion committed in the same period last
year.
Top prospective investing countries include Japan, Korea, and the United
States of America (USA). Top industry recipients of FDI commitments are
manufacturing, electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning and real estate
activities.
Approved investments of foreign and Filipino nationals tripled to PhP 192.0
billion, majority or 87.0 percent of which would be supplied by ventures from
Filipino investors who have continually dominated investments approved
during the first three quarter9s of 2011.
Foreign and Filipino ventures approved by the four major IPAs in Q3 2011 are
expected to create 40,660 jobs, increasing by 51.4 percent from last year's
projected employment of 26,857 jobs. Out of these anticipated jobs, 25,643
new jobs or 63.1 percent would come from projects with foreign interest.
Slide No. 34
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
3. NSCB releases the 2009 Poverty Statistics for
Basic Sectors
The NSCB will release the 2009 Poverty Statistics for the Basic Sectors
on 7 December 2011. This will provide poverty statistics for the following:
• Women;
• Youth;
• Children;
• Senior citizens;
• Individuals residing in urban areas;
• Workers in the formal sector and migrant workers;
• Farmers-peasant; and
• Artisanal fisherfolk.
For inquiries, please contact Ms. Jessamyn O. Encarnacion at telephone
numbered 896-7981, and email address [email protected]
Slide No. 35
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
4. Consultative Workshop on the Formulation of the
PSDP 2011-2017
A Consultative Workshop on the Formulation of the Philippine Statistical
Development Program (PSDP) 2011-2017 on Philippine Statistical System
(PSS)-Wide Concerns will be held on 12 December 2011, 9:00 a.m. at A. Venue
Suites, Makati Avenue, Makati City. The workshop will present the draft PSDP
chapters highlighting the issues/challenges, and proposed statistical
programs and activities for the medium term. The objective of the workshop
is to solicit comments/suggestions and additional inputs from resources
persons, data users and other stakeholders towards the improvement of the
PSS.
The PSDP Secretariat will issue invitations for the said workshop. For
inquiries, please contact the PSDP Secretariat at telefax numbered 895-2436
and 890-9404 or email addresses [email protected] and
[email protected].
Slide No. 36
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
5. NSCB Opens Statistical Information Center in
Pangasinan
The NSCB in cooperation with the Provincial Government of
Pangasinan, launched the satellite National Statistical Information
Center (NSIC) in Pangasinan on 24 October 2011. NSIC Pangasinan
is located at the 2nd Flr., Malong Bldg., Provincial Capitol Compound,
Lingayen, Pangasinan. It is the sixth NSIC satellite in the Philippines ,
and the first NSIC in Region 1.
Aside from the provincial NSICs, there are ten NSICs in the country,
one in Metro Manila, and nine in regional centers. The NSIC is a onestop shop of statistics to facilitate the search for and use of statistical
information be researchers, planners and decision makers.
Slide No. 37
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
6. NSCB Regional Divisions Release 2011 RSET
The National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB), through its
Regional Divisions, announces the release of the 2011 Edition of the
Regional Social and Economic Trends (RSET).
The RSET features annual time series data that are useful for planning
and decision-making and for setting policies towards effective
governance and improved service delivery at the local level. It also
contains data that are disaggregated in different dimensions and
includes a glossary of terms of official concepts and definitions for
statistical purposes as approved by the NSCB Executive Board.
The publication is being released by the NSCB as part of its
continuing commitment to disseminate relevant local level data
generated by the Philippine Statistical System.
Slide No. 38
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
7. Regional Statistical Coordination Committee,
Region 6 Awards Achievers in Statistics in Western
Visayas
The year-long search for “Achievers in Statistics in Western Visayas”
culminated in recognizing the works of two Professors of statistics during the
22nd NSM Closing and Awarding Ceremonies on 27 October 2011 held at the
Sarabia Manor Hotel, Iloilo City.
Dr. Cherry T. Nepomuceno, Professor of Statistics & Director of Learning
Assessment of the West Visayas State University (WVSU) garnered the award
for the Pure Statistics category while Prof. Vicente T. Balinas, Professor of
Statistics & Director of Barangay Integrated Development Approach for
Nutrition Improvement of the Rural Poor (BIDANI) of the University of the
Philippines in the Visayas, Miag-ao, Iloilo earned the award for the Applied
Statistics category.
The search was conceptualized to give recognition to statisticians whose
dedication and long-standing commitment have contributed significantly to
the promotion of statistics and has made a dent in the lives of the people in
Western Visayas and society as a whole.
Slide No. 39
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
visit: www. nscb.gov.ph
Thank you very much.
Slide No. 40
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD