Transcript national statistical coordination board

Performance of the
Philippine Economy
Fourth Quarter / Annual 2012
Presented by
JOSE RAMON G. ALBERT
Secretary General
National Statistical Coordination Board
31 January 2013
Slide No. 0
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Economic Performance
(Growth rates, in percent)
Fourth Quarter
2011
2012
6.8
3.9
6.6
4.5
5.4
3.2
5.8
6.2
0.9
1.0
3.3
2011
2012
GDP
4.0
GNI (GNP)
NPI (NFIA)
Slide No. 1
Annual
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Seasonal Adjustment
(Growth rates, in percent)
Slide No. 2
Q1
2012
Q2
Q3
Q4
GDP
2.7
1.0
1.7
1.5
GNI (GNP)
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.2
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Per Capita GDP, GNI, HFCE
(Growth rates, in percent)
Fourth Quarter
GDP
GNI (GNP)
HFCE (PCE)
Slide No. 3
Annual
2011
2012
2011
2012
2.3
2.8
4.6
5.1
2.2
4.8
3.7
5.2
1.5
4.5
4.0
4.4
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Major Industries
(Growth rates, in percent)
Fourth Quarter
2011
2012
-2.5
Industry
Services
AHFF
Slide No. 4
Annual
2011
2012
4.7
2.7
2.7
3.4
7.5
2.3
6.5
5.9
6.9
5.1
7.4
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Seasonal Adjustment
Major Industries (Growth rates, in percent)
2012
Slide No. 5
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
AHFF
2.9
1.6
0.6
0.1
Industry
3.0
-0.2
2.3
2.5
Services
2.5
1.6
1.6
1.2
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Contributions to GDP Growth
Q4
2012
AHFF
Industry
Services
GDP
Slide No. 6
0.6
2.4
3.8
6.8
Annual
2012
0.3
2.1
4.2
6.6
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing
(Growth rates, in percent)
Fourth Quarter
2011
2012
Slide No. 7
AHFF
Palay
Corn
Coconut / copra
Sugarcane
Banana
Mango
Pineapple
Coffee
Cassava
Rubber
Other crops
Livestock
Poultry
Agri. Activities
Forestry
Fishing
-2.5
-8.7
-9.7
2.2
24.4
-0.3
-2.2
3.8
-4.2
5.0
11.6
-7.3
3.3
5.3
-1.8
2.5
-4.8
4.7
10.2
1.6
0.7
18.9
-3.0
2.3
11.2
-3.1
-0.1
0.5
2.4
1.7
4.3
3.9
-21.0
3.3
Annual
2011
2012
2.7
5.9
9.5
-1.7
59.7
0.7
-4.9
3.2
-5.7
5.1
7.5
-3.9
2.0
4.4
3.2
58.3
-4.1
2.7
8.0
6.3
3.9
-8.7
0.7
-1.6
7.1
-0.8
0.7
4.6
1.5
1.1
4.6
2.0
-6.4
-0.7
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Q4 2012
Annual
4.74
2.74
Palay
Corn
Coconut incl. Copra
Sugarcane
Banana
2.38
0.07
0.03
0.44
-0.12
1.66
0.38
0.18
-0.25
0.04
Mango
0.05
-0.04
Pineapple
Coffee
0.25
-0.02
0.16
0.00
Cassava
0.00
0.01
Rubber
Other crops
0.00
0.15
0.02
0.09
Livestock
Poultry
Agri. Activities
Forestry
Fishing
0.23
0.46
0.27
-0.04
0.60
0.16
0.52
0.15
-0.04
-0.14
AHFF
Slide No. 8
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Industry
(Growth rates, in percent)
Fourth Quarter
2011
2012
Annual
2011
2012
3.4 7.5 2.3 6.5
Mining & Quarrying -16.3 9.6
7.0 -3.7
Manufacturing
3.3 5.6 4.7 5.4
Construction
8.1 18.4 -7.3 14.4
Elec. Gas & Water Supply
2.9 3.7 0.6 5.1
Industry
Slide No. 9
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Industry
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Q4
2012
Industry
Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing
Construction
Elec. Gas & Water Supply
Slide No. 10
7.5
0.2
4.0
2.9
0.4
Annual
2012
6.5
-0.1
3.8
2.3
0.6
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Manufacturing
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Annual 2012
TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF MFG.
Food Manufactures
2.57
Furniture and Fixtures
Wearing Apparel
1.15
0.93
Non-metallic Mineral Products
0.38
Transport Equipment
0.27
LEAST CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH
Fabricated metal products
Slide No. 11
0.001
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Manufacturing
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Annual 2012
NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF MFG.
Slide No. 12
Radio, TV & Comm. Equip. & Apparatus
-0.40
Basic Metal Industries
-0.35
Miscellaneous Manufactures
-0.25
Petroleum & Other Fuel Products
-0.15
Paper & Paper Products
-0.05
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Manufacturing
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Fourth Quarter 2012
TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF MFG.
Radio, TV & Comm. Equip. & Apparatus
1.77
Food Manufactures
Wearing Apparel
1.67
0.47
Beverage Industries
0.41
0.30
Basic Metal Industries
LEAST CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH
Textile Manufactures
Slide No. 13
0.002
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Manufacturing
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Fourth Quarter 2012
NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF MFG.
Electrical Machinery and Apparatus
-0.31
Publishing & Printing
-0.05
Tobacco manufactures
-0.04
Rubber & Plastic Products
-0.02
Machinery & Equip. except Elect.
Slide No. 14
-0.001
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Services
(Growth rates, in percent)
Fourth Quarter
Annual
2011
2012
2011
2012
5.9
Transport., Stor., & Comm. 4.1
Trade
3.4
Financial Intermediation
1.5
Real Estate, Renting & Bus. Actvts.
13.6
Public Administration
5.2
7.5
Other Services
6.9
8.1
6.4
7.2
7.7
6.1*
6.0
5.1
4.3
3.3
7.4
9.1
7.5
7.8
7.9
3.3*
7.2
Services
5.2
9.3
0.3
6.6
* includes regular bonuses of gov’t employees but does not include yet
undisbursed 2012 PBB
Slide No. 15
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Services
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Services
Transport.,Stor., & Comm.
Trade
Financial Intermediation
Real Estate, Renting & Bus. Actvts.
Public Administration
Other Services
Q4
2012
6.9
1.1
2.0
0.8
1.4
0.4*
1.1
Annual
2012
7.4
1.2
2.2
0.9
1.5
0.3*
1.3
* includes regular bonuses of gov’t employees but does not include yet
undisbursed 2012 PBB
Slide No. 16
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 4th Quarter 2012
INDICATOR
GROWTH RATE
Employment rate
- Mining & Quarrying
- Construction
- Electricity, Gas and Water
- Transportation, Storage & Communication
- Community, Social and Personal Services
Mean Hours Worked
- Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishery
- Manufacturing
- Construction
- Transportation, Storage & Communication
- Trade
- Community, Social and Personal Services
Slide No. 17
Up by 10.8%
Up by 5.3%
Up by 7.3%
Up by 7.5%
Up by 18.5%
Up by 3.0%
Up by 2.6%
Up by 1.4%
Up by 2.6%
Up by 4.4%
Up by 6.6%
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 4th Quarter 2012
INDICATOR
GROWTH RATE
Agriculture and Fishery
- Value of Production at Constant Prices
(in million Php)
- Production (in thousand MT)
Palay
Corn
Sugarcane
Livestock
Poultry
Fishing
Mining & Quarrying
- Production
Coal (in DMT)
Crude oil (in barrels)
Slide No. 18
Up by 4.8%
Up by 10.2%
Up by 1.6%
Up by 18.9%
Up by 1.7%
Up by 4.2%
Up by 1.0%
Up by 40.5%
Up by 40.0%
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 4th Quarter 2012
INDICATOR
GROWTH RATE
Manufacturing *
Value of Production Index
Volume of Production Index
Value of Net Sales Index
Volume of Net Sales Index
Construction
Capital outlay expanditures on Infrastructure
- National Government
Cement Demand
Slide No. 19
Up by 11.0%
Up by 14.1%
Up by 8.9%
Up by 12.1%
Up by 10.9%
Up by 10.1 %
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 4th Quarter 2012
INDICATOR
GROWTH RATE
Transportation , Communication and Storage
- Rail Ridership ( Volume of Passengers)
- Rail Ridership (Gross Revenue)
Revenue/Sales from Selected Fast Food Chains
Car Sales
Financial Intermediation
- Reserve Money
- Outstanding Loans-Universal &
Commercial **
Slide No. 20
Up by 7.6%
Up by 7.7%
Up by 16.9 %
Up by 25.3 %
Up by 10.0 %
Up by 13.4 %
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Expenditure (Growth rates, in percent)
HFCE
GFCE
Construction
Durable Equip.
BSOD
Fourth Quarter
2011
2012
6.4
6.9
7.6
9.1
Annual
2011
2012
6.3
6.1
1.0
11.8
Exports of Goods
Exports of Services
Imports of Goods
3.9
-7.9
-2.0
11.7
-13.0
13.4
-10.1
19.1
4.5
0.9
26.4
10.2
5.5
3.1
-6.2
5.2
-0.3
11.8
-6.0
4.0
0.4
13.7
5.7
1.4
16.9
8.4
9.8
2.6
Imports of Services
8.9
9.5
-0.7
11.1
Intellectual Prop. Prod.
* includes regular bonuses of gov’t employees but does not include yet undisbursed 2012 PBB
Slide No. 21
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Expenditure
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
HFCE
GFCE
Construction
Durable Equip.
BSOD
Changes in Inventories
Intellectual Prop. Prod
Net Exports
GDP
Q4
Annual
2012
5.2
0.7
2012
4.3
1.1
1.5
0.4
0.0
-2.4
0.1
1.2
6.8
1.1
0.6
0.0
-2.7
0.1
2.0
6.6
* includes regular bonuses of gov’t employees but does not include yet undisbursed 2012 PBB
Slide No. 22
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Construction
(Growth rates, in percent)
Fourth Quarter
2011
Construction
Public
Private
Slide No. 23
2012
Annual
2011
2012
3.9 19.1 -6.2 13.7
36.4
7.8 -31.8 32.4
-4.8 23.3
8.6
4.5
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Top 5 Exports of Goods
(In percent)
Contributors to Grow th
Growth
Rates
to Growth
Metal Components
196.6
2.2
Telecommunication
465.4
1.2
Control Instrumentation
953.9
1.6
1.1
0.8
151.5
0.7
Components/Devices (semiconductors)
Office Equipment
Slide No. 24
Annual 2012 Contributions
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Bottom 5 Exports of Goods
(In percent)
Annual 2012 Contributions
Contributors
to the Decline
Slide No. 25
Growth
Rates
to Growth
Electronic Data Processing
-27.9
-2.4
Automotive Electronics
-81.5
-1.2
Articles of Apparel and Clothing
Accessories
-19.0
-0.7
Sugar
-79.2
-0.5
Other products manufactured from
materials on consignment basis
-41.1
-0.4
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Top 5 Exports of Goods
(In percent)
Contributors to Grow th
Components/Devices
Growth
Rates
Contributions
to Growth
13.0
6.0
983.6
2.1
89.6
2.1
Office Equipment
231.4
1.3
Telecommunication
260.4
0.8
(semiconductors)
Control Instrumentation
Metal Components
Slide No. 26
Q4 2012
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Bottom 5 Exports of Goods
(In percent)
Contributors
to the Decline
Slide No. 27
Q4 2012
Growth
Rates
Contributions
to Growth
Electronic Data Processing
-48.5
-3.6
Sugar
-99.9
-2.4
Articles of Apparel and Clothing
Accessories
-35.0
-1.6
Consumer Electronics
-42.8
-0.6
Other products manufactured from
materials on consignment basis
-66.2
-0.4
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Top 5 Imports of Goods
(In percent)
Contributors to Grow th
Annual 2012 Contributions
Growth
Rates
to Growth
Components/Devices (semiconductors)
12.2
2.9
Transport Equipment
40.5
2.2
Electronic Data Processing
21.7
1.3
8.0
0.5
29.9
0.4
Mineral Fuels
Telecommunication
Slide No. 28
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Bottom 5 Imports of Goods
(In percent)
Annual 2012 Contributions
Growth
to Growth
Rates
Least Contributors
to Grow th
-11.2
-0.2
-9.8
-0.2
Dairy Products
-16.6
-0.1
Metalliferous Ores & Metal Scrap
-19.8
-3.5
-0.1
-0.1
Base Metals
Chemical Products
Artificial Resins
Slide No. 29
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Top 5 Imports of Goods
(In percent)
Contributors to Grow th
Growth
Rates
Contributions
to Growth
Transport Equipment
35.9
1.9
Cereals
19.1
0.6
Telecommunication
30.7
0.4
112.4
0.3
5.0
0.3
Metalliferous ores & metal scrap
Electronic data processing
Slide No. 30
Q4 2012
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Bottom 5 Imports of Goods
(In percent)
Contributors
to the Decline
Q4 2012
Growth
Rates
Contributions
to Growth
Dairy Products
-28.5
-0.2
Artificial Resins
-9.1
-0.2
-10.5
-0.2
-9.0
-0.2
-20.3
-0.04
Chemical Products
Base Metals
Control Instrumentation
Slide No. 31
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Net Primary Income
Fourth Quarter
Annual
2011
2012
2011
2012
5.4
8.4
5.5
2.3
-10.1
2.1
0.3
4.5
10.0 -11.9
0.4
4.3
0.0
-6.4
-6.4
6.2
0.0
24.0
24.0
0.9
INFLOW
Compensation
Property Income
Total
OUTFLOW
Compensation
Property Expense
Total
NET PRIMARY INCOME
Slide No. 32
0.0
-6.6
-6.6
1.0
0.0
16.3
16.3
3.3
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Third Quarter 2012 Revisions
(Growth Rates as of November 2012 and as of January 2013)
Slide No. 33
Preliminary
Revised
As of Nov 2012
As of Jan 2013
GDP
7.1
7.2
GNI
6.6
7.0
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
1. Call for Papers for the 12th NCS underway
●
Now inviting for papers for the 12th National Convention on
Statistics (NCS) to be held on 1-2 October 2013 in Metro
Manila. The NCS aims to cover a wide range of topics that are
relevant and critical in an information–oriented economy.
Important Dates to remember:
Submission of abstract
Notification of authors of accepted papers
Submission of final manuscripts
●
Slide No. 34
30 March 2013
30 April 2013
15 August 2013
For info: call the NCS Secretariat (tel): 890-96404 or 895-2436
Email: [email protected]
NCS website: (http://www.nscb.gov.ph/ncs)
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
2. NSCB Releases maiden issue of
Philippine Statistics in Brief 2012
Slide No. 35
●
a pocket-sized reference material on major economic
and social indicators of the country which aims to
increase public appreciation and awareness of
statistical information.
●
Semestral updates will be produced in the future. A
copy of the Statistics in Brief is enclosed in the press
kit.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
3. NSCB “Meets the Press”
Slide No. 36
●
The NSCB Technical Staff will have a "Meet the Press"
gathering in June 2013 to get to know friends from the
media and acknowledge their efforts as partners of the
NSCB in statistical advocacy and communication.
●
Date: June 14, 2013 (Friday). Details to follow
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
Starting May 2013, the Press
Conference on the performance of
the PH economy will be available on
USTREAM.TV via the livestream
service at
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nscbi
nfo
Slide No. 37
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
visit: www. nscb.gov.ph
Like us on Facebook: NSCB Philippines
Follow us on Twitter: @NSCBPhilippines
Thank you very much.
Slide No. 38
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD