Transcript PPT - Philippine Statistics Authority

Performance of the
Philippine Economy
Second Quarter 2011
Presented by
ROMULO A. VIROLA
Secretary General
National Statistical Coordination Board
31 August 2011
Slide No. 0
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Economic Performance
(Growth rates, in percent)
Second Quarter
2010
2011
3.4
8.7
4.0
9.2
1.9
10.3
2.6
10.0
-2.8
15.4
-1.6
2010
2011
GDP
8.9
GNI (GNP)
NPI (NFIA)
Slide No. 1
First Half
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Seasonal Adjustment
(Growth rates, in percent)
GDP
GNI (GNP)
Slide No. 2
2010
Q3
Q4
2011
Q1
Q2
0.1
0.5
1.9
0.6
-0.3
1.0
0.6
0.4
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Confidence Intervals
for the True Growth Rate
of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Confidence Interval
Period
GDP
90%
95%
99%
Growth Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper
Q2 2011
Slide No. 3
3.4
Limit
Limit
Limit
Limit
Limit
Limit
3.0
4.1
2.9
4.2
2.7
4.4
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Per Capita GDP, GNI, HFCE
(Growth rates, in percent)
Second Quarter
GDP
GNI (GNP)
HFCE (PCE)
Slide No. 4
First Half
2010
2011
2010
2011
6.9
7.1
0.0
1.5
6.6
2.0
0.0
3.5
8.2
1.0
0.6
3.4
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Major Industries
(Growth rates, in percent)
Second Quarter
First Half
2010
2011
2010
2011
AHFF
-2.0
7.1
-1.9
5.6
Industry
15.7
-0.6
15.5
3.1
Services
7.3
5.0
7.2
4.2
Slide No. 5
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Seasonal Adjustment
Major Industries (Growth rates, in percent)
2010
2011
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
0.4
1.8
1.8
2.2
Industry
-2.7
2.1
3.1
-3.0
Services
1.8
-0.7
1.3
2.4
AHFF
Slide No. 6
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Contributions to GDP Growth
Q2 2011
AHFF
Industry
Services
GDP
Slide No. 7
0.7
-0.2
2.8
3.4
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Agriculture, Hunting, Fishery & Forestry
(Growth rates, in percent)
Second Quarter
2010
2011
Slide No. 8
AHFF
Palay
Corn
Coconut / copra
Sugarcane
Banana
Mango
Pineapple
Coffee
Cassava
Rubber
Other crops
Livestock
Poultry
Agri. Activities
Forestry
Fishing
-2.0
-7.3
-36.1
0.9
-56.3
1.0
9.7
2.1
0.4
8.1
3.7
5.6
3.5
8.1
4.1
-33.9
-1.6
7.1
13.2
71.5
-3.5
504.3
-0.3
-4.9
8.5
-2.1
5.7
6.1
2.1
1.2
3.3
3.1
-13.5
-2.6
First Half
2010
2011
-1.9
-8.3
-23.9
1.6
-7.2
1.5
6.3
1.2
-0.1
7.4
2.1
4.8
1.8
6.0
0.0
-12.9
-1.4
5.6
14.5
37.0
-4.9
75.3
1.0
-5.7
2.3
-6.8
4.9
6.2
-0.2
0.8
3.6
3.3
-13.6
-2.8
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Agriculture, Hunting, Fishery & Forestry
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Q2 2011
AHFF
Slide No. 9
7.1
Palay
Corn
2.18
2.14
Coconut incl. Copra
-0.15
Sugarcane
Banana
2.65
-0.02
Mango
-0.11
Pineapple
Coffee
0.18
-0.01
Cassava
0.07
Rubber
Other crops
0.03
0.13
Livestock
0.18
Poultry
0.33
Agri. Activities
Forestry
0.24
-0.07
Fishing
-0.62
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Industry
(Growth rates, in percent)
Second Quarter
2010
2010
2011
15.7 -0.6 15.5
Mining & Quarrying 24.4
3.0 15.2
Manufacturing
13.2 4.8 15.7
Construction
24.7 -16.1 18.5
Elec. Gas & Water Supply 10.2
-2.0 10.0
3.1
9.2
6.8
-8.6
-1.6
Industry
Slide No. 10
2011
First Half
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Industry
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Q2
2011
Industry
Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing
Construction
Elec. Gas & Water Supply
Slide No. 11
-0.6
4.33
0.1
1.00
3.0
2.00
-3.5
3.00
-0.2
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Manufacturing
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Second Quarter 2011
TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF MFG.
4.91
Food Manufactures
Miscellaneous Manufactures
1.01
Furniture and Fixtures
0.57
Beverage Industries
0.54
0.21
Chemical & Chemical Prod.
LEAST CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH
Wood, Bamboo, Cane and Rattan Articles
0.02
Slide No. 12
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Manufacturing
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Second Quarter 2011
NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF MFG.
Radio, TV & Comm. Equip and Apparatus
-0.95
Transport Equipment
-0.57
Mach. & Equipment Except Electrical
Office Accounting & Computing Machinery
Basic Metal Industries
Slide No. 13
-0.39
-0.31
-0.25
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Services
(Growth rates, in percent)
Second Quarter
First Half
2010
2011
2010
2011
7.3
Transport., Stor., & Comm. 2.2
Trade
6.8
Financial Intermediation
5.8
Real Estate, Renting & Bus. Actvts.
8.6
Pub Administration
9.6
10.9
Other Services
5.0
5.3
1.2
9.9
5.7
7.3
5.8
7.2
0.0
9.0
4.2
4.8
0.8
8.2
5.9
1.8
5.6
Services
Slide No. 14
7.0
7.0
8.6
10.3
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Services
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Services
Transport.,Stor., & Comm.
Trade
Financial Intermediation
Real Estate, Renting & Bus. Actvts.
Pub. Administration
Other Services
Slide No. 15
Q2
2011
5.09.1
2.95
0.7
1.74
0.3
1.61
1.2
1.57
1.1
0.68
0.6
0.55
1.1
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 2nd Quarter 2011
INDICATOR
GROWTH RATE
Employment
Agriculture
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Construction
Electricity, Gas and Water
Trade
Financing, Insurance, Real Estate &
Business
Community, Social & Personal
Services
Mean Hours Worked
Mining and Quarrying
Community, Social & Personal
Services
Slide No. 16
Up by
Up by
Up by
Up by
Up by
Up by
Up by
4.0
5.6
8.5
2.0
2.3
1.7
5.2
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Up by 16.5 %
Up by
1.0 %
Up by
Up by
0.8 %
0.9 %
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 2nd Quarter 2011
INDICATOR
GROWTH RATE
Agriculture and Forestry
Value of Production
Up by
Production
Palay
Corn
Sugarcane
Livestock
Poultry
Slide No. 17
6.8 %
Up by 13.1 %
Up by 71.6 %
Up by 511.0 %
Up by
1.1 %
Up by
3.3 %
Value of Coal Production (In Million Php)
Up by
Manufacturing
Value of Production Index
Volume of Production Index
Capacity Utilization
Value of Net Sales Index
Volume Of Net Sales Index
Producers Price Index
Up by
Up by
Up by
Up by
Up by
Up by
71.8 %
3.5
1.1
0.2
8.5
6.0
2.3
%
%
%
%
%
%
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 2nd Quarter 2011
INDICATOR
GROWTH RATE
Subscribers base (cellular) - stock
Up by
6.5 %
Gross Revenue
Key Players in Transportation,
Storage and Communication
Key Players in Real Estate
Key Players in Retail Trading
Selected Fast Food Chains
Up by 1.1 %
Up by 25.6 %
Up by 9.5 %
Up by 13.2 %
Financial Intermediation
Slide No. 18
Reserve Money
Up by 12.7 %
Loans
Outstanding Loans-Universal &
Commercial Banks
Up by 20.5 %
Net Income of Selected Major Banks
Up by 34.0 %
Net Income of Selected Major
Investment Financing/Investment
Houses
Up by COORDINATION
39.0 %
NATIONAL STATISTICAL
BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 2nd Quarter 2011
INDICATOR
GROWTH RATE
Changes in Inventories
Corn Inventory (as of end-June)
Imports Of Goods (FOB value in million
US$) (April-May)
Slide No. 19
Up by 102.9 %
Up by
11.8 %
Overseas Filipinos’ Remittances ($)
Tourism
Tourist/Visitor arrivals
Average Hotel Occupancy Rate
Up by
6.7 %
Up by
Up by
11.0 %
1.2 %
CPI Inflation for Q2 2011
Up by
4.5 %
Peso Appreciation Q2 2011
Up by
5.3 %
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Expenditure
(Growth rates, in percent)
HFCE
GFCE
Construction
Durable Equip.
BSOD
First Half
2010
2011
2.9
5.4
13.7
-6.0
Exports of Goods
Exports of Services
Imports of Goods
25.2
35.9
1.0
4.1
28.6
6.2
23.8
-13.5
2.2
0.7
7.3
0.1
-2.2
1.1
19.3
32.1
0.4
9.0
27.9
1.3
25.0
-5.2
11.2
0.5
5.3
3.2
-8.7
8.1
Imports of Services
14.1
19.2
15.8
4.6
Intellectual Prop. Prod.
Slide No. 20
Second Quarter
2010
2011
1.9
5.4
7.4
4.5
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Expenditure
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
2011
Q2
3.6
0.5
HFCE
GFCE
Construction
Durable Equip.
BSOD
Changes in Inventories
Intellectual Prop. Prod
Net Exports
GDP
Slide No. 21
-1.4
0.2
0.0
1.4
0.0
-2.3
3.4
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Construction
(Growth rates, in percent)
Second Quarter
2010
Construction
Public
Private
Slide No. 22
2011
First Half
2010
2011
25.2 -13.5 19.3 -5.2
27.0 -51.2 22.1 -47.8
23.7 19.0 17.7 20.5
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Construction
Slide No. 23
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Construction
Source: DBM
Slide No. 24
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Top 5 Exports of Goods
(In percent)
Contributors to Grow th
C ont r i but i ons
Growth
Rates
t o Gr owt h
Automotive Electronics
197.1
1.13
Petroleum Products
260.9
0.44
82.2
0.26
532.6
0.21
85.2
0.18
Cathodes & Sections of Cathodes, of
Refined Copper
Sugar
Bananas, incl. Plantains, Fresh or
Dried
Slide No. 25
Q2 2011
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Bottom 5 Exports of Goods
(In percent)
Least Contributors
to Grow th
Slide No. 26
Q2 2010
C ont r i but i ons
Growth
Rates
t o Gr owt h
Components/Devices
(Semiconductors)
-18.4
-9.87
Electronic Data Processing
-19.0
-1.60
Communication/Radar
-57.1
-0.72
Consumer Electronics
-51.5
-0.40
Ignition Wiring Sets
-27.9
-0.33
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Top 5 Imports of Goods
(In percent)
Contributors to Grow th
Communication / Radar
Q2 2011
Growth
Rates
C o n t r ib u t io n s
t o G r ow t h
237.0
0.63
Machinery and Mechanical Appliances
14.0
0.60
Medical and Pharmaceutical Products
26.0
0.42
Electrical Machinery
17.4
0.31
Paper Products
21.5
0.27
Slide No. 27
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Bottom 2 Imports of Goods
(In percent)
Least Contributors
to Grow th
Q2 2010
C ont r i but i ons
Growth
Rates
t o Gr owt h
Components / Devices
(Semiconductors)
-23.6
-6.29
Cereals
-56.9
-2.38
Mineral Fuels
-16.8
-1.20
Transport Equipment
-13.0
-0.77
-9.9
-0.60
Electronic Data Processing
Slide No. 28
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Net Primary Income
Second Quarter
First Half
2010
2011
2010
10.3
-29.1
9.6
-3.1
24.8
-2.8
14.4
-24.8
13.6
0.0
3.9
3.9
10.0
0.0
-3.2
-3.2
-2.8
2011
INFLOW
Compensation
Property Income
Total
-2.8
13.1
-2.6
OUTFLOW
Compensation
Property Expense
Total
NET PRIMARY INCOME
Slide No. 29
0.0
0.0
-1.9 -12.1
-1.9 -12.1
15.4 -1.6
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
OFW Details
Second Quarter
2010
2011
Compensation
in Dollars (in billion)
in Peso (in billion)
Slide No. 30
18.0
819.9
18.9
818.8
Growth
Rate
5.1
(0.1)
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
GDP Scenarios for Q2 2011
Construction
Actual
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
Slide No. 31
-16.1
-8.0
0.0
Growth Rates
Industry
GDP
-0.6
1.2
2.9
GNI
3.4
4.0
4.5
1.9
2.3
2.7
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
GDP Scenarios for Semester II 2011
GDP
2011 Target
Lower
Upper
Slide No. 32
7.0
8.0
Growth Rates
2010
SEM I
SEM II
8.7
8.7
6.7
6.7
2011
SEM I
4.0
4.0
SEM II
9.9
11.8
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
First Quarter 2011 Revisions
(Growth Rates as of May 2011 and as of August 2011)
PRODUCTION
AHFF
AGRICULTURE & FORESTRY
FISHING
INDUSTRY
MINING & QUARRYING
MANUFACTURING
CONSTRUCTION
ELEC., GAS & WATER SUPPLY
SERVICES
TRANS., STORAGE & COMM
TRADE
FIN. INTERMEDIATION
RERBA
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
OTHER SERVICES
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
NPI
GROSS NATIONAL INCOME
Slide No. 33
Preliminary
Revised
Contribution
A s o f M ay 2011
A s o f A ug 2011
to Revisio n
4.2
6.2
-3.7
7.2
18.6
8.6
4.0
-0.4
3.7
5.5
0.8
5.4
5.9
-4.6
6.8
4.9
0.0
3.6
4.3
6.2
-3.1
7.3
19.8
8.8
3.5
-1.2
3.2
4.2
0.3
6.4
6.1
-4.6
5.4
4.6
-0.5
3.3
0.01
0.00
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.05
-0.02
-0.03
-0.25
-0.10
-0.08
0.06
0.02
0.00
-0.15
-0.23
-0.14
-0.31
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
1. Schedule of Releases of the 2010 GRDP and
2010 GRDE
The revised/rebased (2000=100) 2010 Gross Regional Domestic
Product (GRDP) and the 2010 Gross Regional Domestic Expenditure
(GRDE) will be released on 29 March 2012 and 26 April 2012,
respectively.
Meanwhile, the National Accounts Linked Series (2000=100), 19462011, annual and quarterly as well as the 2010 Income and Outlay
Accounts will be released in October 2011 and December 2011,
respectively.
For inquiries, please contact, Mr. Raymundo J. Talento at telephone
numbered 895-2481, and email address, [email protected]
Slide No. 34
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
2. Approved FDI triples in Q2 2011
Total foreign direct investments (FDI) approved in the second quarter
of 2011 by the four major investment promotion agencies tripled to
PhP 40.6 billion from PhP 13.8 billion recorded in the same period last
year. Meanwhile, total approved FDI for the first six months of 2011
reached PhP 62.6 billion up by 3.5 percent from last year’s PhP 60.5.
While FDI increased in Q2 2011, the total approved investments of
foreign and Filipino nationals declined by 8.5 percent from last year’s
PhP 172.6 billion to PhP 158.0 billion as the commitment of Filipino
nationals declined. However, Filipino nationals continued to account
for the bulk of the investments approved during the quarter with PhP
117.4 billion worth of pledges or a share of 74.3 percent.
Slide No. 35
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
3. NSCB spearheads the conduct of the 22nd
National Statistics Month
In October 2011, the Philippine Statistical System through the National
Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) will spearhead the nationwide
observance of the 22nd National Statistics Month (NSM). Theme for this
year’s celebration is: Quality Social Protection Statistics for Focused
Targeting: Improving Outcomes, Changing Lives or Kalidad na
Estadistika sa Pangangalagang Panlipunan: Pagpapahusay ng Gawa,
Pagpapaunlad ng Buhay.
Host agencies are the Department of Social Welfare and Development and
the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas for the Opening and Closing Ceremonies,
respectively.
For more information, please contact the NSM Secretariat at 890-9404 or
895-2436 or visit the NSM Web at URL:
http://www.nscb.gov.ph/nsm/22ndNSM/activties.asp
Slide No. 36
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
4. NSCB RD VI spearheads the conduct of the
10th Western Visayas Statistics Congress
The NSCB Regional Division VI is spearheading the conduct of the 10th
Western Visayas Statistics Congress in collaboration with the Regional
Statistical Coordination Committee (RSCC) VI and the Philippine Statistical
Association-Iloilo Chapter. The event which will be held in line with the
celebration of the 22nd National Statistics Month (NSM) will be conducted on
26-27 October 2011 following the theme of the NSM: Quality Social Protection
Statistics for Focused Targeting: Improving Outcomes, Changing Lives. The
congress will provide a forum for exchanging ideas and experiences in the
field of statistics and for discussing prevailing statistical developments,
issues and challenges, updates of regular statistical programs, standards,
and policies, and/or best practices, that helped strengthen the statistical
system for information and/or adoption of the intended users.
For inquiries, please contact Ms. Nelida B. Losare of NSCB RD VI at telephone
numbered (033) 320-0513 and email address, [email protected].
Slide No. 37
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
5. NSCB held series of Subnational Consultative
Workshops on PSDP 2011-2017
The NSCB conducted a series of consultative workshops in Luzon,
Visayas, and Mindanao in connection with the formulation of the
Philippine Statistical Development Program (PSDP) 2011- 2017. The
consultative workshops aim to present the draft Subnational
Statistical Development Chapter of the PSDP and solicit
comments/recommendations from data producers, data users and
other stakeholders in the regions.
The subnational workshops were held in Davao and Iloilo for
Mindanao and Visayas on 25 and 26 of August 2011, respectively.
The workshop for Northern Luzon will be conducted in La Union
today, 31 August 2011.
Slide No. 38
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
6. Deadline for submission of entries to the 3rd
NSM Media Awards
Deadline for the submission of entries to the 3rd National Statistics
Month (NSM) Media Awards is today, 31 August 2011. This award
recognizes the important role of media practitioners specifically
reporters from broadcast (TV and radio) and print and online news
service from both the government and private media organizations,
who have made significant contributions in promoting, popularizing,
and using statistics in information dissemination and other relevant
purposes.
Interested parties may contact the NSM Media Awards Secretariat at
telephone numbered 890-9405 or e-mail address [email protected] or
visit the website at http://www.nscb.gov.ph/nsm/MediaAwards.
Slide No. 39
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
visit: www. nscb.gov.ph
Thank you very much.
Slide No. 40
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD