Transcript Analiza rozwoju gospodarczego województwa podkarpackiego

I.
Changes in public statistics relations with
environment
•
Statistics and government and self-government
institutions
•
Statistics and business
•
Statistics and media
II.
Internal changes in organisation
III.
Conclusions
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3

establishing and publishing on websites a uniform set of indexes for
monitoring socio-economic phenomena;

greater participation of representative of statistics in expert teams working
on monitoring and analysing socio-economic processes;

preparing advanced analytical tools for comparing data in spatial
breakdown (e.g. NUTS-4 level compared to the NUTS-2 and NUTS-0
levels) and providing them in electronic form to order.
4
%
27.5
30
25
20
15,3
15
10
5
0
Ist quarter 2008
Ist quarter 2009
government and self-government institutions
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
strengthening potential of departments responsible for information
dissemination in order to meet growing needs for information
in the business sector so as to identify the needs of individual customer
(personalization), as well as customize the products to individual user's
requirements (customization);

developing a generator (software) of information package with an analytical
part which will serve for making a socio-economic diagnosis needed for
specifying conditions for running activity in a given area, especially useful
while taking investment decisions;

optimizing entrepreneurs’ reporting burden;

benchmarking of economic enterprises situation - functioning of the
reporting portal enables feedback, which facilitates comparisons especially
in terms of financial results for a group of enterprises with similar scope as
well as for competitive environment, to be delivered to firms;

cross-border data banks using registers of entities of the national economy,
which will penetrate neighbouring country market in order to launch activity
or find markets abroad.
6
%
14.1
16
14
12
10
8.5
8
6
4
2
0
Ist quarter 2008
Ist quarter 2009
business
7

developing information materials well edited for mass media;

providing a special tab for mass media on the website;

more frequent briefings and meetings with journalists aiming at:
• systematic access to statistical information for society;
• proper interpretation of transferred information, especially in time
of crisis, when information “noise” is becoming higher.
8
%
28.6
30
25
20
14.0
15
10
5
0
Ist quarter 2008
Ist quarter 2009
media
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10

involving all entities in on-line reporting causes improvement of data
quality and shortening of the time of data processing;

establishing thematic data basis, which will constitute a consistent set
of information from any available sources, concerning individual socioeconomic phenomena. It will ensure integrity of the country’s
information system and, through the system of meta-information,
correct interpretation as well as the use of statistical data;

specialization contributes to establishing analytical and expert groups
in particular research areas of statistics;

inventory of information resources of statistics as well as designing
new and modification of some surveys so as to adapting public
statistics to changing socio-economic situation;
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Observed effects
Short and long-term results of migration
(possible scenarios of events)
Labour market
• decrease in unemployment rate,
• deficit in some professions (health care,
construction workers etc.)
• brain drain (generally young and higher
educated),
• slight pay rise.
• further decrease in unemployment rate,
• accelerating the process of decreasing people
in working age,
• increase in immigration,
• higher pay rise dynamics.
Inflation
• similar to average level in EU-27.
• increase in inflation (caused by increase both
wages and remittances) and as a consequence
increase in interest rate and possible decrease
in export.
GDP
• upward tendency (GDP per capita makes up
53% of average in UE-27),
• increase in consumer and investment demand
thanks to mainly remittances.
• deceleration of economic growth.
Remittances
• steady increase.
• decrease in remittances due to different type
of migrants behaviour.
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3800
3600
3400
3200
Real values
Predicted values
3000
in thous.
2800
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
I 02 II
III IV I 03 II
III IV I 04 II
III IV I 05 II
III IV I 06 II
Quarters
III IV I 07 II
III IV I 08 II
III IV I 09 II
III IV I 10
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
works aiming at establishing a consistent survey system for crossborder areas in coordination with statistical offices from other
countries:
• launching surveys on external and internal borders of the European
Union (survey of goods and services turnover in border traffic on
Polish-Ukrainian border, pilot survey of the volume of vehicle traffic on
Schengen borders).
• households surveys - a module concerning changes occurring on the
labour market with a particular focus on nonregistered employment,
shopping and migration;
• survey of entities in the cross-border areas, with a module concerning
grey zone as the main one;
• survey of foreign passengers in tourist accommodation establishments;
• surveys on the result of introduction of euro in cooperation with
Statistical Office in Slovakia.
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200
Border movement of Slovakian
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Border movement of Poles
-50
0
50
* since 1st January 2009 Slovakia has been in Euro-zone
100
150
200
250
15
%
13.4
IV quarter
13.2
2009
2008
III quarter
9.4
I quarter*
%
0
20
Ukrainian expenditures
40
60
80
100
Polish exports to Ukraine
*estimated data
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
identification of the most important endogenous and exogenous factors
effecting economy and regional development in order to include them in
the process of designing and carrying out surveys, as well as
disseminating information,

improving methods of data analysis as well as ways of communication
with receivers of information (FAQ, Newsletter, RSS, user satisfaction
questionnaire, etc.),

setting up Statistical Research Institute,

improvement of IT infrastructure (visualisation of data, using
a layered approach for the presentation of information on the web site,
etc.).
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Billions
260
250
240
230
220
210
GDP
GDP Tramo-Seats
GDP Arima-X12
200
190
I 03
II 03
III 03
IV 03
I 04
II 04
III 04
quarters
IV 04
I 05
II 05
III 05
IV 05
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Strengths:
 dominant position in respect of
possessing data on wide range
of social-economic issues.
Weaknesses:
 insufficient use of the Polish
Official Statistics potential
in satisfying different kinds
of needs on the dynamically
developing information market,
 little flexibility of institutions
in reacting to market’s needs,
 unsatisfactory quality
of statistical analyses.
Opportunities:
 introducing numerous
innovations with the purpose of
improving quality and availability
of possessed data.
Threats:
 growing competition from
various kinds
of agencies, associations
and specialized firms.
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„Crisis is unprecedented challenge”
„Crisis is a terrible thing to waste”
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