Transcript America and the world in turbulent times Adrian Wooldridge

America and the world in
turbulent times
Adrian Wooldridge
February 2009
Le Moniteur : 9th-22nd March 1815
The cannibal has escaped from his hideout.
The ogre of Corsica has landed on the gulf Juan.
The tiger arrived at Gap. His miserable adventure will end
there, as a vagabond in the mountains.
The monster slept in Grenoble.
Bonaparte advances in great pace, but he will never enter
Paris.
Napoleon will be in the city ramparts tomorrow.
The Emperor arrived at Fontainebleu.
His Imperial Majesty entered yesterday in the Tuileries
Castle, among his faithful subjects.
Welcome to the White
House
Afghanistan, Cuba, Iran,
Iraq, Israel-Palestine,
North Korea, Pakistan,
Sudan, Somalia,
Venezuela, Georgia
Globalisation explosion
14000
12000
10000
World exports
World GDP
8000
6000
4000
2000
1950=100
Source: IMF, World Bank, EIU
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
0
Volvo: heavy truck orders, Europe:
Third quarter 2007: 41,970
Third quarter 2008:
?
Volvo: heavy truck orders, Europe:
Third quarter 2007: 41,970
Third quarter 2008:
115
Five nightmares
Three inevitable ones
1. A larger public sector
2. Missed opportunities
3. Mission creep
Two unknowns
4. Bash the rich
5. Geopolitics/
nationalism
Estimates of potential world gains from Doha
Estimate of potential gains in
global income (US$, billion)
300
250
World Bank
Carnegie
200
150
100
50
0
Full liberalisation
Likely Doha scenario/Central Doha scenario
Will they be enough to persuade governments to incur relevant costs?
A global world (1):
The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping
his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole
earth, in such quantity as he might see fit, and reasonably
expect their early delivery on his doorstep; he could at the
same moment and by the same means adventure his
wealth in the natural resources and new enterprises of any
quarter of the world, and share, without exertion or trouble,
in their perspective fruits and advantages.
A global world (2):
Most important of all [he] regarded this state of affairs as
normal, certain, and permanent, except in the direction of
further improvement, and any deviation from it as aberrant,
scandalous, and avoidable. The projects and politics of
militarism and imperialism, of racial and cultural rivalries, of
monopolies, restriction and exclusions, which were to play
the serpent to this paradise, were little more than the
amusements in his daily newspaper.
“So inevitable,
and yet so completely unforeseen.”
Alexis de Tocqueville
on the French Revolution
previous year
China in the driving seat
Changing global demand
US$ trn
60
50
W Europe
E Europe
N America
Middle East
Asia
Africa
Lat Am
40
30
20
10
0
2007
GDP at mkt exchange rates
2025
America and the world in
turbulent times
Adrian Wooldridge
February 2009