Transcript NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Performance of the
Philippine Economy
Fourth Quarter / Annual 2011
Presented by
ROMULO A. VIROLA
Secretary General
National Statistical Coordination Board
30 January 2012
Slide No. 0
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Economic Performance
(Growth rates, in percent)
Fourth Quarter
2010
2011
3.7
7.6
3.7
5.6
3.5
8.2
2.6
3.9
2.9
10.0
-0.9
2010
2011
GDP
6.1
GNI (GNP)
NPI (NFIA)
Slide No. 1
Annual
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Seasonal Adjustment
(Growth rates, in percent)
Q1
2011
Q2
Q3
Q4
GDP
2.0
0.3
0.8
0.9
GNI (GNP)
0.7
0.2
0.9
1.7
Slide No. 2
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Confidence Intervals
for the True Growth Rate
of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Slide No. 3
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Per Capita GDP, GNI, HFCE
(Growth rates, in percent)
Fourth Quarter
GDP
GNI (GNP)
HFCE (PCE)
Slide No. 4
Annual
2010
2011
2010
2011
4.1
3.6
2.9
1.8
5.6
1.8
1.6
4.8
6.1
1.4
0.7
4.1
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Major Industries
(Growth rates, in percent)
Fourth Quarter
Annual
2010
2011
2010
2011
AHFF
4.1
-2.5
-0.2
2.6
Industry
6.5
2.5
11.6
1.9
Services
6.4
5.9
7.2
5.0
Slide No. 5
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Seasonal Adjustment
Major Industries (Growth rates, in percent)
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
AHFF
0.1
2.4
-3.7
-1.2
Industry
3.7
-4.3
1.4
1.9
Services
1.3
2.6
1.4
0.7
Slide No. 6
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Contributions to GDP Growth
Q4 2011
AHFF
Industry
Services
GDP
Slide No. 7
-0.3
0.8
3.2
3.7
Annual
2011
0.3
0.6
2.8
3.7
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Agriculture, Hunting, Fishery & Forestry
(Growth rates, in percent)
Fourth Quarter
2010
2011
Slide No. 8
AHFF
Palay
Corn
Coconut / copra
Sugarcane
Banana
Mango
Pineapple
Coffee
Cassava
Rubber
Other crops
Livestock
Poultry
Agri. Activities
Forestry
Fishing
4.1
19.6
10.5
-5.2
-25.2
-3.4
5.3
-3.7
-5.7
0.1
-1.4
-1.3
-0.9
7.6
4.6
-48.0
-1.4
-2.5
-8.7
-9.7
1.3
24.4
-0.3
-2.2
3.8
-4.3
5.0
11.6
-7.5
3.3
5.3
-3.9
34.7
-4.2
Annual
2010
2011
-0.2
-2.4
-8.9
-0.6
-15.7
0.6
6.9
-0.3
-2.0
4.8
1.3
2.7
0.6
7.7
3.3
-31.3
-0.5
2.6
5.9
9.5
-2.0
59.7
0.7
-5.2
3.2
-5.8
5.1
7.5
-4.0
2.0
4.4
2.2
57.1
-4.0
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Agriculture, Hunting, Fishery & Forestry
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Q4 2011
Annual
-2.52
2.64
Palay
Corn
-2.17
-0.42
1.18
0.53
Coconut incl. Copra
0.05
-0.10
Sugarcane
Banana
0.45
-0.01
1.11
0.04
Mango
-0.05
-0.13
Pineapple
Coffee
0.08
-0.02
0.07
-0.03
Cassava
0.06
0.06
Rubber
Other crops
0.05
-0.48
0.04
-0.27
Livestock
0.41
0.29
Poultry
0.53
0.49
Agri. Activities
Forestry
-0.26
0.06
0.17
0.25
-0.80
-0.89
AHFF
Slide No. 9
Fishing
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Industry
(Growth rates, in percent)
Fourth Quarter
2010
Industry
Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing
Construction
Elec. Gas & Water Supply
Slide No. 10
Annual
2011
2010
2011
6.5 2.5
6.9 -6.5
6.5 2.2
4.6 11.2
9.4 -6.2
11.6
11.4
11.2
14.3
9.9
1.9
4.1
4.7
-6.4
-2.8
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Industry
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Industry
Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing
Construction
Elec. Gas & Water Supply
Slide No. 11
Q4
2011
Annual
2011
2.5
-0.2
1.6
1.7
-0.6
0.6
0.0
1.0
-0.4
-0.1
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Manufacturing
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Annual 2011
TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF MFG.
1.05
Food Manufactures
1.03
Furniture and Fixtures
Chemical & Chemical Prods.
1.02
Miscellaneous Manufactures
0.73
0.73
Beverage Industries
LEAST CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus
0.02
Slide No. 12
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Manufacturing
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Annual 2011
NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF MFG.
Radio, TV & Comm. Equip. & Apparatus
-0.33
-0.14
Textile Manufactures
Wood, Bamboo,Cane & Rattan Articles
-0.10
-0.09
Tobacco Manufactures
Basic Metal Industries
-0.07
Slide No. 13
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Manufacturing
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Fourth Quarter 2011
TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF
Furniture and Fixtures
Chemical & Chemical Prods.
Food Manufactures
Beverage Industries
Transport Equipment
Slide No. 14
MFG.
2.02
1.39
0.80
0.75
0.55
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Manufacturing
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Fourth Quarter 2011
NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF MFG.
Radio, TV & Comm. Equip. & Apparatus
-2.80
-0.42
Basic Metal Industries
Wood, Bamboo,Cane & Rattan Articles
-0.27
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery
-0.22
Miscellaneous Manufactures
-0.20
Slide No. 15
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Services
(Growth rates, in percent)
Fourth Quarter
Annual
2010
2011
2010
2011
6.4
Transport., Stor., & Comm. 1.4
Trade
5.0
Financial Intermediation
13.6
Real Estate, Renting & Bus. Actvts.
9.4
Pub Administration
-0.8
8.7
Other Services
5.9
2.7
3.9
6.8
9.2
6.2
7.9
7.2
1.0
8.4
5.0
3.9
2.6
6.6
7.7
3.2
6.7
Services
Slide No. 16
10.1
7.5
5.8
8.4
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Services
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Services
Transport.,Stor., & Comm.
Trade
Financial Intermediation
Real Estate, Renting & Bus. Actvts.
Pub. Administration
Other Services
Slide No. 17
Q4
2011
5.9
0.4
1.3
0.8
1.6
0.4
1.4
Annual
2011
2.8
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.8
0.1
0.7
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 4th Quarter 2011
INDICATOR
GROWTH RATE
Employment
- Manufacturing
- Construction
- Transportation, Comm & Storage
- Trade
- Financing, Insurance, Real Estate & Bus
Services
- Community, Social & Personal Services
Up by 5.6 %
Up by 3.9 %
Up by 5.7 %
Up by 3.3 %
Up by 8.6 %
Up by 9.2 %
Up by 5.0 %
Mean Hours Worked
- Construction
Up by 0.2 %
Manufacturing (October - November)
- Value of Net Sales Index
- Volume Of Net Sales Index
Up by 9.1 %
Up by 9.0 %
Slide No. 18
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 4th Quarter 2011
INDICATOR
GROWTH RATE
Infrastructure/Other Capital Outlays (net of
Accounts Payable) for Q4 2011
- National Government
- Local Government
Transportation , Communication and Storage
- Rail Ridership ( Volume of Passengers)
- Rail Ridership (Gross Revenue)
Tourist/Visitor Arrival (Ocober - November)
Hotel Occupancy Rate (October -November)
Outbound Travel tax Collection (October November)
Up by 135.7 %
Up by 35.8 %
Up by 5.3 %
Up by 5.8 %
Up by 15.7 %
Up by 5.2 %
Up by 0.2 %
CPI Inflation for Q4 2011
Up by 4.7 %
Peso vis-à-vis US Dollar
Appreciated by 0.4 %
Slide No. 19
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Expenditure
(Growth rates, in percent)
HFCE
GFCE
Construction
Durable Equip.
BSOD
Annual
2010
2011
3.4
6.1
4.0
-0.7
Exports of Goods
Exports of Services
Imports of Goods
14.0
21.6
0.7
-0.7
15.3
24.3
23.1
11.4
1.2
-2.2
20.2
-10.8
18.5
-8.0
17.5
25.5
0.3
2.9
24.7
6.5
23.4
-4.1
8.7
-0.3
10.9
-5.3
3.4
1.4
Imports of Services
17.4
15.2
18.9
4.2
Intellectual Prop. Prod.
Slide No. 20
Fourth Quarter
2010
2011
4.9
6.7
-6.6
5.8
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Expenditure
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
HFCE
GFCE
Construction
Durable Equip.
BSOD
Changes in Inventories
Intellectual Prop. Prod
Net Exports
GDP
Slide No. 21
Q4
Annual
2011
4.9
0.4
2011
4.2
-0.1
0.9
0.1
0.0
-2.2
0.1
-0.6
3.7
-0.4
0.9
0.0
1.7
0.0
-2.9
3.7
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Construction
(Growth rates, in percent)
Fourth Quarter
2010
Construction
Public
Private
Slide No. 22
2011
Annual
2010
2011
14.0 11.4 17.5 -4.1
-13.7 49.4
4.1 -29.4
24.6
1.4 24.1
6.3
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Top 5 Exports of Goods
(In percent)
Contributors to Grow th
C ont r i but i ons
Growth
Rates
t o Gr owt h
Automotive Electronics
122.6
0.76
Sugar
736.8
0.33
9.3
0.28
Bananas, incl. Plantains, Fresh or
Dries
60.4
0.22
Petroleum Products
58.0
0.13
Articles of Apparel & Clothing
Accessories
Slide No. 23
Annual 2011
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Bottom 5 Exports of Goods
(In percent)
Least Contributors
to Grow th
Slide No. 24
Annual 2011
C ont r i but i ons
Growth
Rates
t o Gr owt h
Components/Devices
(Semiconductors)
-20.5
-11.81
Electronic Data Processing
-14.4
-1.39
Communication / Radar
-48.6
-0.74
Other Products Manufactured from
Materials on Consignment Basis
-18.3
-0.23
Coconut Oil
-26.5
-0.23
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Top 5 Exports of Goods
(In percent)
Contributors to Grow th
Sugar
C ont r i but i ons
Growth
Rates
t o Gr owt h
2,633.24
0.94
Consumer Electronics
92.0
0.85
Bananas, incl. Plantains, Fresh or
Dries
99.7
0.65
Ignition Wiring Sets
23.0
0.61
7.5
0.27
Articles of Apparel & Clothing
Accessories
Slide No. 25
Q4 2011
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Bottom 5 Exports of Goods
(In percent)
Least Contributors
to Grow th
Slide No. 26
Q4 2011
C ont r i but i ons
Growth
Rates
t o Gr owt h
Components/Devices
(Semiconductors)
-30.1
-16.76
Electronic Data Processing
-39.0
-4.03
Communication/Radar
-45.1
-0.82
Other Products Manufactured from
Materials on Consignment Basis
-34.3
-0.28
Automotive Electronics
-48.8
-0.27
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Top 5 Imports of Goods
(In percent)
Contributors to Grow th
Annual 2011
Growth
Rates
C o n t r ib u t io n s
t o G r ow t h
Machinery and Mechanical Appliances
16.3
0.83
Artificial Resins
25.2
0.46
139.5
0.41
Electrical Machinery
17.9
0.40
Telecommunication
36.2
0.34
Communication / Radar
Slide No. 27
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Bottom 5 Imports of Goods
(In percent)
Least Contributors
to Grow th
Annual 2011 C o n t r i b u t i o n s
Growth
Rates
t o Gr owt h
Components/Devices (Semiconductors)
-14.8
-4.25
Cereals
-45.3
-1.54
Electronic Data Processing
-7.5
-0.49
Transport Equipment
Mineral Fuels
-5.5
-3.6
-0.33
-0.23
Slide No. 28
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Top 5 Imports of Goods
(In percent)
Contributors to Grow th
Q4 2011
Growth
Rates
C o n t r ib u t io n s
t o G r ow t h
9.2
0.62
Telecommunication
31.5
0.27
Cereals
15.8
0.25
Textile Yarns
15.9
0.24
Artificial Resins
10.2
0.22
Machinery and Mechanical Appliances
Slide No. 29
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Bottom 5 Imports of Goods
(In percent)
Least Contributors
to Grow th
Q4 2011
C ont r i but i ons
Growth
Rates
t o Gr owt h
Components/Devices (Semiconductors)
-27.3
-7.65
Transport Equipment
-22.9
-1.50
Metalliferous Ores & Metal Scraps
-56.3
-0.35
Electronic Data Processing
-4.8
-0.30
Electrical Machinery
-6.8
-0.18
Slide No. 30
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Net Primary Income
Fourth Quarter
Annual
2010
2011
2010
2011
2.5
-13.1
2.2
3.6
15.8
3.7
8.8
-21.7
8.2
-1.2
12.7
-1.1
0.0
Property Expense
-18.8
Total
-18.8
NET PRIMARY INCOME
3.9
0.0
17.1
17.1
2.9
0.0
-8.4
-8.4
10.0
0.0
-2.8
-2.8
-0.9
INFLOW
Compensation
Property Income
Total
OUTFLOW
Compensation
Slide No. 31
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
GDP Scenarios for 2012
1. If the Government will build additional
classrooms in 2012…
Additional
Number of
Classrooms
10,000
50,000
60,000
Slide No. 32
Contribution to
Growth of Q1
2012 GDP
0.01%
0.07%
0.09%
Contribution to
Growth of Annual
2012 GDP
0.02%
0.09%
0.11%
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
GDP Scenarios for 2012
GDP Scenarios 2
a. Continued employment
- 10,000 nurses
- 1,000 midwives
b. Additional 24,000 teachers to
attain a teacher-pupil ratio of 1:37
c. 4th Tranche of SSLIII to start Feb
2012
Slide No. 33
Contribution to
Contribution to
Growth of Q1 2012 Growth of Annual
GDP
2012 GDP
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
0.00%
0.00%
0.03%
1.26%
1.18%
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Third Quarter 2011 Revisions
(Growth Rates as of November 2011 and as of January 2012)
PRODUCTION
AHFF
AGRICULTURE & FORESTRY
FISHING
INDUSTRY
MINING & QUARRYING
MANUFACTURING
CONSTRUCTION
ELEC., GAS & WATER SUPPLY
SERVICES
TRANS., STORAGE & COMM
TRADE
FIN. INTERMEDIATION
RERBA
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
OTHER SERVICES
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
NPI
GROSS NATIONAL INCOME
Slide No. 34
Preliminary
Revised
Contribution
A s o f No v 2011
A s o f Jan 2012
to Revisio n
1.8
3.7
-6.1
-0.2
1.1
3.1
-12.2
-1.0
5.3
4.9
3.8
3.6
7.6
5.4
7.0
3.2
-3.4
1.6
2.1
4.3
-6.6
0.8
1.7
3.5
-8.5
-0.7
5.4
4.6
3.8
1.4
8.6
5.9
7.8
3.6
-2.5
2.1
0.04
0.05
-0.01
0.31
0.01
0.09
0.21
0.01
0.05
-0.02
0.00
-0.14
0.11
0.02
0.08
0.40
0.21
0.51
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
1. Quarterly Revised/Rebased National Accounts
Estimates now available on NSCB website
The quarterly revised/rebased (2000=100) national accounts estimates
for 1998-2010 can now be accessed on the NSCB website at
http://www.nscb.gov.ph/announce/2012/0113_qtrlygdpseries.asp
For inquiries, please contact, Mr. Raymundo J. Talento at telephone
numbered 895-2481, and email address, [email protected].
Slide No. 35
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
2. Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) expands three
quarters in a row
The composite leading economic indicator (LEI) continued its upward
course after it weakened in the second quarter of 2011, indicating a
positive outlook for the country’s economy. For the first quarter of
2012, the LEI posted 0.238 from a revised 0.158 in the fourth quarter
of 2011. The latest LEI computations show the index in firmer positive
territory auguring well for the domestic economy to start off the year
of the dragon.
Slide No. 36
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
3. NSCB holds second series
Workshops on PSDP 2011-2017
of
Consultative
The NSCB conducted the second of a series of consultative
workshops on the formulation of the Philippine Statistical
Development Program (PSDP), 2011- 2017 on January 16-19 and 25,
2012 at the Tiara Oriental Hotel in Makati City. The first workshop on
PSS-wide concerns was conducted last 12 December 2011.
Slide No. 37
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
3. NSCB holds second series of
Workshops on PSDP 2011-2017 con’t
Consultative
The consultative workshops held this month, aim to present the identified
issues/ concerns in the Philippine Statistical System (PSS) and the proposed
statistical programs and activities to address the sectoral concerns in the
PSDP, particularly on economic and social chapters, and to solicit the
comments and recommendations of invited discussants and various
stakeholders in the PSS. The last of the workshop series will be on 3
February 2012 at the Tiara Oriental Hotel where the chapters on Governance,
Peace and Security and Transport Statistics will be presented.
Consultative workshops were also conducted in Luzon, Visayas and
Mindanao in August 2011.
For further inquiries, please contact the PSDP Secretariat at telefax numbered
895-2436 and 890-9404 or email addresses [email protected] and
[email protected].
Slide No. 38
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
4. NSCB to launch Philippine Business Cycle Clock
The National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) will launch the
Philippine Business Cycle Clock (BCC) in March 2012.
The Philippine BCC is an online graphic representation of selected
indicators displayed like a clock to track cyclical movements of
economic indicators, based on the four conjunctural phases namely:
expansion, downturn, slowdown and recovery. The visual
presentation will help users understand the economic up and
downswings over time, know how some economic indicators interact
with the business cycle and allow users perceive the leading,
coincident or lagging behavior of indicators.
Slide No. 39
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
4. NSCB to launch Philippine Business Cycle Clock
con’t
The BCC is a dynamic tool which can be used to analyze the cycle of
the various Philippine Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) such as
terms of trade index, electric energy consumption, consumer price
index, among others, vis-a-vis the non-agriculture gross value added
(GVA).
The BCC concept was created and developed by Statistics
Netherlands. As of December 2011, countries/organizations using the
BCC include the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD), Eurostat, Statistics Netherlands, Statistics
Korea (KOSTAT), and the Federal Statistical Office of Germany. In
March 2012, the Philippines will be the sixth to join the roster of
countries/organizations which are disseminating a BCC.
Slide No. 40
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
5. NSCB disseminates “sexy statistics”
The National Statistical Coordination Board started disseminating
exciting and interesting statistics/indicators on 25 January 2012 through
a new section called "Sexy Statistics" on the NSCB website.
The new section presents the special tabulations and computations done
by the NSCB Technical Staff to present statistics on current issues and
responses to various data requests of stakeholders. It can be accessed
at http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sexystats/. For the first edition, the section
featured an article entitled “ Across ASEAN Countries, a Minimum Wage
Earner in 2010 Can Buy the Most Rice in Thailand and in the Philippines”.
For further inquiries, please contact the National Statistical Information
Center (NSIC) at telephone numbered 890-8456 or email address
[email protected]
Slide No. 41
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
visit: www. nscb.gov.ph
Thank you very much.
Slide No. 42
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD