Transcript NSCB Presentation - National Statistical Coordination Board

Performance of the
Philippine Economy
Third Quarter 2010
Presented by
ROMULO A. VIROLA
Secretary General
National Statistical Coordination Board
25 November 2010
Slide No. 0
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Economic Performance
(Growth rates, in percent)
Third Quarter
2009
2010
6.5
0.7
7.5
4.1
7.5
4.0
7.9
35.2
13.7
31.6
10.3
2009
2010
GDP
0.2
GNP
NFIA
Slide No. 1
Q1 to Q3
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Seasonal Adjustment
(Growth rates, in percent)
2009
2010
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
GDP
1.6
3.7
1.4
-0.5
GNP
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.2
Slide No. 2
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Confidence Intervals
for the True Growth Rate
of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Confidence Interval
Period
GDP
Growth
Q3 2010
Slide No. 3
6.5
90%
95%
99%
Lower
Upper
Lower
Upper
Lower
Upper
Limit
Limit
Limit
Limit
Limit
Limit
6.2
6.7
6.1
6.7
6.0
6.8
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Per Capita GDP, GNP, PCE
(Growth rates, in percent)
Third Quarter
GDP
GNP
PCE
Slide No. 4
Q1 to Q3
2009
2010
2009
2010
-1.7
2.1
0.6
4.4
-1.3
5.4
5.5
2.2
2.0
1.7
5.8
2.7
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Major Industries
(Growth rates, in percent)
Third Quarter
2009
2010
1.4
Industry
Services
AFF
Slide No. 5
Q1 to Q3
2009
2010
-2.5
1.2
-2.8
-4.8
9.2
-2.7
13.7
3.4
7.7
2.7
7.1
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Seasonal Adjustment
Major Industries (Growth rates, in percent)
2009
2010
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
-2.4
-0.2
-0.3
0.3
Industry
6.0
4.7
3.0
-4.4
Services
0.3
4.4
0.8
1.9
AFF
Slide No. 6
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Contributions to GDP Growth
Q3 2010
AFF
Industry
Services
GDP
Slide No. 7
-0.43
2.97
3.91
6.46
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Agriculture, Fishery & Forestry
(Growth rates, in percent)
Third Quarter
2009
AFF
Palay
Corn
Coconut / copra
Sugarcane
Banana
Other crops
Livestock
Poultry
Agri. Activities
Fishery
Forestry
Slide No. 8
1.4
1.5
5.2
4.2
10.5
3.0
0.8
1.3
1.8
2.2
-0.6
-2.1
2010
Q1 to Q3
2009
2010
-2.8
-14.9
-15.4
-0.4
-19.2
1.2
2.8
1.1
3.0
1.6
0.8
-13.4
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
-2.5
-24.8
-2.4
-1.6
-82.8
2.3
2.7
-1.0
4.2
8.9
3.5
-7.3
1.2
2.9
0.8
2.4
-19.9
4.0
-1.7
2.0
3.5
2.2
3.0
-10.7
Agriculture, Fishery & Forestry
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Q3 2010
AFF
Palay
Corn
Coconut / copra
Sugarcane
Banana
Other Crops
Livestock
Poultry
Agricultural Activities
Fishery
Forestry
Slide No. 9
-2.493.92
-3.971.64
-0.231.61
-0.070.63
-0.220.36
0.080.26
0.430.17
-0.120.17
0.43
-0.12
0.46
-0.15
-0.21
0.79
-0.06
-0.45
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Industry
(Growth rates, in percent)
Third Quarter
2009
Industry
Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing
Construction
Electricity & Water
Slide No. 10
2010
Q1 to Q3
2009
2010
-4.8 9.2 -2.7 13.7
29.5 4.6 22.9 18.6
-7.9 9.3 -7.7 13.9
2.0 11.1 12.9 14.2
-6.3 8.1 -3.8 8.3
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Industry
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Q3
2010
Industry
Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing
Construction
Electricity & Water
Slide No. 11
9.17
4.33
0.24
1.00
6.31
2.00
1.74
3.00
0.88
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Manufacturing
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Third Quarter 2010
TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF MFG.
Electrical Machinery
Products of Petroleum & Coal
Basic Metal Industries
Miscellaneous Manufactures
Slide No. 12
3.70
3.16
1.42
0.95
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Manufacturing
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Third Quarter 2010
LEAST CONTRIBUTORS TO GROWTH OF MFG.
Food Manufactures
Tobacco Manufactures
Footwear Wearing Apparel
Slide No. 13
-2.01
-0.80
-0.26
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Services
(Growth rates, in percent)
Third Quarter
Services
Transport., Comm., Stor.
Trade
Finance
O. Dwellings & Real Estate
Private Services
Government Services
Slide No. 14
Q1 to Q3
2009
2010
2009
2010
3.4
-1.5
1.6
11.5
-2.3
6.7
8.9
7.7
3.5
11.7
8.4
9.1
7.2
-1.3
2.7
1.8
0.4
7.1
19
11.1
5.5
7.7
7.6
4.5
5.9
-1.4
5.6
7.2
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Services
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Q3
2010
Services
TCS
Trade
Finance
ODRE
Private Services
Government Services
Slide No. 15
7.758.4
0.552.8
4.031.8
1.051.5
0.891.4
1.340.6
-0.120.3
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 3rd Quarter 2010
INDICATOR
Employment
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Construction
TCS
Trade
Financing, Insurance, Real Estate &
Business
Mean Hours Worked
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
TCS
Financing, Insurance, Real Estate &
Business
Community, Social & Personal
Services
Slide No. 16
GROWTH RATE
Up by 2.2 %
Up by 9.6 %
Up by 1.6 %
Up by 3.2 %
Up by 0.1%
Up by 4.8 %
Up by 8.0 %
Up by 4.59 %
Up by 0.46 %
Up by 0.08 %
Up by 0.69 %
Up by 37.31 %
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 3rd Quarter 2010
INDICATOR
Manufacturing (July-Aug)
Value of Production Index
-
Volume of Production Index
-
Capacity Utilization
Value of Net Sales Index
Volume Of Net Sales Index
Sales of Cement
Volume of Car Sales
Passenger Car
Commercial Vehicle
Coal Production ( In Metric Tons)
Slide No. 17
GROWTH RATE
Up by 15.8 %
Up by 23.8 %
Up by 2.0 %
Up by 11.3 %
Up by 19.0 %
Up by 4.7 %
Up by 33.7 %
Up by 37.3 %
Up by 31.7 %
Up by 18.08 %
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 3rd Quarter 2010
INDICATOR
GROWTH RATE
Gross Revenue
Key Players in Real Estate
Up by 23.4 %
-
Key Players in Retail trading
Up by 16.91 %
-
Selected Broadcasting Companies
Up by 8.4 %
-
Selected Fast Food Chains
Up by 10.4 %
Water Gross Billed Volume
Water Gross Sales
Rail Ridership
Volume of Passenger
Gross Revenue
Subscribers base (cellular) – stock
Subscribers base (fixed line) – stock
Outstanding Loans of Commercial Banks
Slide No. 18
Up by 2.9 %
Up by 22.0 %
Up by 3.5 %
Up by 6.1 %
Up by 11.6 %
Up by 4.9 %
Up by 6.0 %
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indicators
Supporting Growth for 3rd Quarter 2010
INDICATOR
Exports of Goods (FOB value in million US$)
Imports Of Goods (FOB value in million US$) (
Jul-Aug)
Imports of Capital Goods (FOB value in
million US$) (Jul-Aug)
Tourist/Visitor Arrivals (Jul-Aug)
Overseas Filipinos’ Remittances ($)
CPI Inflation for Q3 2010
Peso Appreciation Q3 2010
Slide No. 19
GROWTH RATE
Up by 39.8 %
Up by 19.5 %
Up by 10.4 %
Up by 30.2 %
Up by 9.5 %
Up by 3.8 %
Up by 6.4 %
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Expenditure
(Growth rates, in percent)
Third Quarter
PCE
Gov't Consumption
Construction
Durable Equipment
BSODA
Merchandise Exports
Exports of Non-Factor Svcs
Merchandise Imports
Imports of Non-Factor Svcs
Slide No. 20
Q1 to Q3
2009
2010
2009
2010
2.6
12.1
2.8
-3.5
1.4
-14.4
-4.1
-1.7
-13.8
4.2
-6.1
12.2
16.4
2.2
28.0
39.5
16.0
49.5
3.7
10.1
9.1
-14.3
-1.0
-19.8
6.9
-5.1
-4.6
4.7
6.3
15.9
24.5
2.2
28.9
22.8
19.3
29.9
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Expenditure
(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)
Q3
2010
PCE
Gov't Consump.
Construction
Durable Equip.
1.24
BSODA
0.02
Changes in Stocks
Net Exports
GDP
Slide No. 21
3.36
-0.45
1.11
-0.90
6.12
6.46
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Construction
(Growth rates, in percent)
Third Quarter
2009
Construction
Public
Private
Slide No. 22
2010
Q1 to Q3
2009
2010
2.8 12.2 9.1 15.9
23.3 -24.0 27.0
8.3
-9.2 41.1 -3.6 23.0
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Top 5 Merchandise Exports
(In percent)
Contributors to Grow th
Slide No. 23
Q3 2010
C ont r i but i ons
Growth
Rates
t o Gr owt h
Semiconductors and Electric
Microcircuits
95.1
9.56
Finished Electrical Machinery
76.3
6.38
Garments
20.2
1.06
Crude Coconut Oil
22.8
0.76
Other Prods. Manufactured
76.3
0.34
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Bottom 5 Merchandise Exports
(In percent)
Least Contributors
to Grow th
Slide No. 24
Q3 2010
C ont r i but i ons
Growth
Rates
t o Gr owt h
Iron Agglomerates
-58.3
-0.26
Dessicated Coconut
-32.2
-0.21
Gold from Copper Ores
-40.1
-0.11
Prepared Tuna
-27.6
-0.10
Centrifugal Sugar
-43.0
-0.10
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Top 5 Merchandise Imports
(In percent)
Contributors to Grow th
Q3 2010
Growth
Rates
C o n t r ib u t io n s
t o G r ow t h
Electrical Machinery, Apparatus and Appliances
13.8
2.73
Cereal and Cereal Products
75.6
2.41
Machinery Other Than Electrical Machinery
23.2
2.25
Fertilizer
46.5
0.96
6.4
0.52
Mineral fuels, lubricants and related
materials
Slide No. 25
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Bottom Merchandise Imports
(In percent)
Least Contributors
to Grow th
Q3 2010
C ont r i but i ons
Growth
Rates
t o Gr owt h
2.7
0.03
Textile Fibers
13.9
0.06
Textile Yarns
2.5
0.08
Feeding Stuff
4.8
0.18
Chemical Elements & Compounds
5.6
0.20
Paper Products
Slide No. 26
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Net Factor Income from Abroad
Third Quarter
Q1 to Q3
2009
2010
2009
2010
30.7
-35.2
26.0
1.8
-21.3
1.0
30.7
5.7
-41.1 -24.2
24.5
4.5
0.0
-0.7
-0.7
35.2
0.0
-49.7
-49.7
13.7
0.0
0.0
3.8 -17.5
3.8 -17.5
31.6 10.3
INFLOW
Compensation
Property Income
Total
OUTFLOW
Compensation
Property Expense
Total
NET FACTOR INCOME
Slide No. 27
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
OFW Details
Third Quarter
2009
2010
Growth
Rate
Compensation
in Dollars (in billion)
in Peso (in billion)
Deployment
Slide No. 28
7.43
8.28
11.4
357.89
374.88
4.7
367,693
345,735
-6.0
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Second Quarter 2010 Revisions
(Growth Rates as of August 2010 and as of November 2010)
PRO DU CTI O N
AFF
AGRICULTURE & FISHERY
FORESTRY
INDUSTRY
MINING & QUARRYING
MANUFACTURING
CONSTRUCTION
ELECTRICITY, GAS & WATER
SERVICES
TRANS., COMM & STORAGE
TRADE
FINANCE
ODRE
PRIVATE SERVICES
GOVERNMENT SERVICES
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
NFIA
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Slide No. 29
Preliminary
Revised
Contribution
A s o f A ug 2010
A s o f No v 2010
to Revisio n
-3.0
-2.8
-37.8
15.8
36.3
12.4
22.6
8.4
6.4
4.2
7.8
2.2
9.4
6.7
7.6
7.9
7.7
7.9
-3.2
-2.9
-37.9
16.1
37.4
12.7
22.5
8.6
6.7
3.5
9.1
1.7
9.0
7.1
7.9
8.2
3.9
7.6
-0.02
-0.02
0.00
0.09
0.03
0.06
-0.01
0.01
0.15
-0.06
0.21
-0.04
-0.02
0.04
0.02
0.30
-0.53
-0.34
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
1. Approved FDI up by 83 percent in Q3 2010
in billion pesos
Total Approved FDI in Q1, Q2, Q3 and First NIne Months
2009 and 2010
90.0
80.0
70.0
79.4
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
-
46.7
34.3
19.9
13.8
4.0
Q1
Q2
Q3
2009
Slide No. 30
19.0
10.4
2010
Jan - Sep
Total foreign direct investments
(FDI) approved in the third quarter of 2010
by the four major investment promotion
agencies (IPAs), namely: Board of
Investments (BOI), Clark Development
Corporation (CDC), Philippine Economic
Zone Authority (PEZA), and Subic Bay
Metropolitan Authority (SBMA) amounted to
PhP 19.0 billion, up by 82.9 percent from
PhP 10.4 billion approved in the third
quarter of 2009.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
2. Search for Achievers in Statistics in Western
Visayas
The Regional Statistical Coordination Committee Region 6
(RSCC 6) launched the first Search for Achievers in Statistics (SAS)
in Western Visayas.
Qualified for nomination are practicing or
retired statisticians who are residents of Western Visayas and
whose dedication and long-standing commitment have contributed
significantly to the promotion of statistics and have made a dent in
the lives of the people in Region 6. Criteria for evaluation are
service, integrity, and professionalism. Awarding of winners will be in
October 2011. Nomination will start next month.
Interested parties may contact RSCC 6 thru NSCB Regional
Division 6 located at Luna St., La Paz, Iloilo City with telephone
numbered (033) 3200513 or email address [email protected].
Slide No. 31
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
3. NSCB conducts
Seminar for the media
Statistical
Appreciation
To enhance the partnership between the Philippine Statistical
System (PSS) and the media in improving data dissemination and
communication strategies, the National Statistical Coordination
Board (NSCB) will conduct a Statistical Appreciation Seminar for the
Media on January 15, 2010 (Saturday) from 8:00am to 5:00pm at
the NSCB Operations Room.
The seminar aims to promote the use of statistics in
evidence-based decision making towards good governance as well
as to serve as a venue for exchange of ideas and discussions on
statistical analysis and data interpretation that would enhance the
relevance of PSS statistical products and strengthen media’s
capacity in writing stories behind the statistics.
Slide No. 32
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Announcements
3. NSCB conducts Statistical Appreciation Seminar for the
media cont….
Among the topics to be covered during the whole day
seminar include basic concepts as well as sources and
methodologies of the Philippine System of National Accounts and its
related accounts, poverty statistics, and other indicators produced
by the NSCB.
For inquiries, please contact, Mr. Ruben V. Litan of the National
Statistical Information Center at 890-9405 or email at
[email protected]
Slide No. 33
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
visit: www. nscb.gov.ph
Thank you very much.
Slide No. 34
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD