Transcript Pechan

E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc.
2018 SO2 Emissions Evaluation
for Non-Utility Sources
Jim Wilson and Andy Bollman
E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc.
Presentation to
WRAP Stationary Sources Joint Forum Meeting
November 2006
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Presentation Outline
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Study Purpose
Methods Summary
Revisions Since August
Overall Results
Findings
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Study Purpose
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Update the SO2 emission milestones
for the 309 States
Non-utility source focus
Milestone sources >100 tpy SO2 in
2004 at the facility-level
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Methods Summary
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Starting point – 2018 SSJF-sponsored
emission projections
MS Excel files posted on SSJF/
projections site
» 2002 emissions
» Growth and control factors
» Equation to estimate 2018 emissions
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Revised base year emissions to 2004
values where needed
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Methods Summary (Part 2)
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Revised SO2 emissions and
algorithms
Consulted with States/sources
Evaluated economic basis for growth
factors
Industry consultations
Revisions made
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Revisions Made Since August
1. Chemical Lime Plants (AZ) - revised
base and 2018 SO2 estimates
2. Added Arizona Clean Fuels refinery
to 2018 estimates
3. Refineries (WY)-included EDMS
version 1.3 data in base year - this
revised 2018 values
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State-Level Emission Comparisons
Base Year
Emissions
State
2018
Emissions
(ERG)
2018
Emissions
(Pechan)
Arizona
28,786
47,170
35,333
New Mexico
17,837
21,119
21,965
Oregon
5,301
5,979
4,503
Utah
9,597
10,176
9,314
37,647
45,685
43,097
99,167
130,129
114,212
Wyoming
5 State Total
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Sector-Level Emission Comparisons
Base Year 2018 Emissions 2018 Emissions
Emissions
(ERG)
(Pechan)
Sector
Combined Heat & Power
3,801
2,620
2,620
26,181
46,028
32,000
5,897
6,247
4,708
642
909
937
2,015
3,129
2,015
Oil and Gas
32,900
45,529
46,574
Refining
13,023
14,308
12,579
Food
813
595
595
Glass
109
180
180
12,596
9,289
10,710
1,189
1,294
1,294
99,167
130,129
114,212
Copper
Wood/Paper/Pulp
Cement
Chemicals/Plastics
Metals/Mining/Minerals
Miscellaneous
Subtotal
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Findings
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Base year data issues
New vs. existing source SO2 rates for nonboilers or FCCUs
Refinery capacity expansion uncertainty
Oil and gas
» Upset emissions importance
» Calibration of activity growth to regional forecasts
» Additional comments on the October report for
this sector (post-2002 control installations)
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