Transcript ppt

WRAP Mobile Source
Emission Inventories
Presented to
WRAP Emissions Forum
Missoula, Montana
September 27, 2005
Presented by
Alison K. Pollack
ENVIRON International Corporation
Novato, California
Projects2:/IDEQ_Boise/Presentations/IDEQ_6-13-02.ppt
Presentation Overview
 Objective and general approach
 Models, model inputs, and activity data used
 On-Road emissions, base and future years
 Non-Road emissions, base and future years
 Road dust emissions
 California emissions data updates
 Remaining work
Overall Objectives for Developing
Mobile Source Emissions
 To develop up-to date and accurate
mobile source emission inventories for
WRAP states
 To use consistent emissions estimation
methods among states
 To get up-to-date modeling and activity
inputs from state and local agencies
On-Road Vehicle Categories
 Light-duty gasoline vehicles
– cars, light-duty trucks,
motorcycles
 Heavy-duty gasoline trucks
 Light-duty diesel vehicles
– cars, light-duty trucks
 Heavy-duty diesel trucks
On-Road Mobile Sources
General Approach
Local Parameters
Temperature
Fuel Specifications
MOBILE6.2
Control Programs
Vehicle Registration
Generates g/mi
Emission Factors
Local Travel Data
X
Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
and Speed by Roadway Type
VMT Growth Rates
=
Emissions
EPA MOBILE6 On-Road
Emission Factor Model
 Estimates g/mile emission factors for
– Exhaust VOC, NOx, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NH3, SO2
– Evaporative VOC
 Incorporates Federal motor vehicle control programs
– Tier 1 light-duty vehicle standards (begins MY 1996)
– National Low Emission Vehicle (NLEV) standards (begins MY
2001)
– Tier 2 light-duty vehicle standards (begins MY 2005), with low
sulfur gasoline beginning summer 2004
– Heavy-duty vehicle standards (begins MY 2004)
– Heavy-duty vehicle standards (begins MY 2007), with low sulfur
diesel beginning with summer 2006
 Models state/local control programs
– Fuels regulations
– Inspection and Maintenance programs
Surveys of State/Local Agencies
for Modeling Inputs and VMT Data
 Survey for 2002 base year inputs and VMT
– Default model inputs and VMT from EPA NMIM used
for NEI2002, CERR submittals to EPA, Sierra Research
analysis of fuel survey data
– Detailed spreadsheets were posted to web
– Responses were received from all state agencies and
key local agencies
 Survey for future year inputs, VMT growth, and
unpaved road VMT
– Default model inputs were 2002 inputs(except fuel S);
default VMT growth developed from previous MSEI
growth factors;
– Detailed spreadsheets were posted to web
– Responses were received from all state agencies and
key local agencies
California On-Road Emissions
 California has developed CA-specific EMFAC
model
 We used latest public version - EMFAC2002
(v2.2, April 2003) to estimate 2002 emissions
 EMFAC includes CA VMT by county to estimate
g/mile emission factors as well as emissions
 Significant EMFAC revision is in progress
 ARB has just provided updated emissions from
internal working version of EMFAC
2002 WRAP States Average Annual OnRoad NOx Emissions
1,800
1,600
Light Duty Gasoline
Light Duty Diesel
1,400
Heavy Duty Gasoline
Tons Per Day
1,200
Heavy Duty Diesel
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
AK
AZ
CA
CO
ID
MT
NV
NM
ND
OR
SD
UT
WA
WY
2002 WRAP States Average Annual OnRoad VOC Emissions
1,000
900
Light Duty Gasoline
800
Light Duty Diesel
Heavy Duty Gasoline
700
Tons Per Day
Heavy Duty Diesel
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
AK
AZ
CA
CO
ID
MT
NV
NM
ND
OR
SD
UT
WA
WY
New On-Road Mobile Temporal Profiles
Weekend Diurnal Profiles
Weekday Diurnal Profiles
0.08
0.09
LDGV
0.08
0.07
LDGT1
LDGT2
0.07
0.06
HDGV
0.06
LDDV
0.05
LDDT
0.05
LDGV
HDDV
LDGT1
0.04
MC
0.04
LDGT2
0.03
HDGV
0.03
LDDV
0.02
0.02
LDDT
HDDV
0.01
0.01
0
MC
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Day of Week Profiles
0.200
0.180
0.160
0.140
0.120
LDGV
0.100
LDGT1
LDGT2
0.080
HDGV
0.060
LDDV
LDDT
0.040
HDDV
0.020
MC
0.000
S
M
T
W
Th
F
Sat
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Spatial Distribution of All RPO
On-Road NO Emissions (July Weekday)
Growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
Relative to 2002
1.7
Alaska
VMT Growth Factor (relative to 2002)
1.6
Arizona
Colorado
1.5
Idaho
Montana
1.4
Nevada
New Mexico
1.3
North Dakota
Oregon
1.2
South Dakota
Utah
1.1
Washington
Wyoming
1.0
0.9
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Year
2012
2014
2016
2018
WRAP States Average Annual On-Road
VOC and NOx Emissions by State (excludes
CA)
VOC
NOx
2000
Alaska
3000
Arizona
1800
Colorado
Idaho
2500
Montana
Annual Average Day (Tons Per Day)
Annual Average Day (Tons Per Day)
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
Nevada
Alaska
2000
Arizona
New Mexico
North Dakota
Colorado
Idaho
Oregon
South Dakota
Montana
Nevada
1500
Utah
New Mexico
North Dakota
Washington
Oregon
Wyoming
South Dakota
Utah
1000
Washington
Wyoming
400
500
200
0
0
2002
2008
2013
2018
2002
2008
2013
2018
WRAP States Average Annual On-Road
VOC and NOx Emissions by Class (excludes CA)
VOC
NOx
3,000
2,000
Light Duty Gasoline
1,800
Light Duty Diesel
2,500
Heavy Duty Gasoline
1,600
Heavy Duty Diesel
1,400
2,000
Tons Per Day
Tons Per Day
1,200
1,000
1,500
Light Duty Gasoline
Light Duty Diesel
Heavy Duty Gasoline
800
Heavy Duty Diesel
1,000
600
400
500
200
-
-
2002
2008
2013
2018
2002
2008
2013
2018
WRAP States Average Annual On-Road
SO2 Emissions by Class (excludes CA)
80
70
Light Duty Gasoline
60
Light Duty Diesel
Heavy Duty Gasoline
Tons Per Day
50
Heavy Duty Diesel
40
30
20
10
2002
2008
2013
2018
Non-Road Equipment Categories

Lawn and Garden
Equipment

Locomotives
Airport Ground Support
Equipment

Logging Equipment

Commercial Equipment

Oil Field Equipment

Commercial Marine

Pleasure Craft

Construction and Mining
Equipment

Railroad Equipment

Recreational Equipment

Agricultural Equipment

Aircraft


Industrial Equipment
Modeling Traditional Non-Road Sources
Local Parameters
Temperature
Fuel Specifications
Equipment Population Data
NONROAD2004
Does not include California; California has internal OFFROAD model.
EPA NONROAD Emissions Model
 Estimates total emissions — includes both emission factors
and activity data
 Emissions from traditional nonroad sources
– 2-stroke gasoline
– 4-stroke gasoline
– diesel
 Latest posted draft model used (NONROAD2004)
 Includes all promulgated Federal control programs
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Tier 1 through Tier 4 CI engines >50 hp
Tier 1 and Tier 2 CI engines <50 hp
Phase 1 and 2 SI engines <25 hp
Tier 1 and Tier 2 large SI engines >25 hp
Recreational vehicles
Recreational marine SI
Recreational marine CI >50 hp
NONROAD Model Emissions Estimates
For each type of equipment
Emissions = Equipment population
x Average load factor
x Activity (hours of use per year)
x Emission factor
by age, horsepower, fuel type, and application
NONROAD has assumptions and default values for
all calculation inputs
2002 Aircraft Emissions Estimates
 Based on NEI2002 aircraft emissions estimates; 1285
airports total
 Aircraft Categories: air carriers (AC), air taxis (AC), general
aviation, military aircraft
 Emissions for 549 towered airports:
– FAA Emissions and Dispersion Modeling
System (EDMS), using detailed activity data
by airframe for AC and AT
– Fleet average emission factors for air taxis
and general aviation, multiplied by total LTOs
 Smaller airports: fleet average emission factors
 Inserted improved aircraft emissions estimates available from
other studies: Alaska (WRAP project), Wyoming, Arizona,
Idaho, Clark County
2002 Locomotive Emissions Estimates
 2002 national fuel
consumption obtained
 Fuel consumption
allocated to counties
using historical freight
data
 County-level emissions
estimated as:
County emissions = (county fuel consumption) x (emission factor)
Locomotive Emissions Data Sources
Data
Fuel consumption
Source
 Class I - Association of
American Railroads (AAR, 2003)
 Class II/III - American Short Line &
Regional Railroad Association
Historic freight movements (allocation
surrogate)
Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Emission factors (emissions/gal)
EPA
2002 Locomotive emissions provided
by agencies
Alaska; Arizona; Clark County, NV;
Idaho; Wyoming
County Allocation of Locomotive Activity
2002 Commercial Marine Emissions
 Ocean going vessel (OGV) types:
–
–
–
–
–
Tugs
Ferries
Support, excursion, and dredges
Commercial fishing
Military
 EPA emission factors for three size categories of commercial
marine engines
 OGV near port and within shore — Washington and Oregon
– Ship calls and vessel power
– Activity per call
 OGV Offshore (Corbett, Univ. of Delaware)
– Ship positioning data, subset of all vessels
– Scaled to all vessels
– Biased low near shore (near port grid cells replaced with near port
emissions estimates)
2002 OGV Emissions Estimates
State
VOC
CO
NOx
Washington (off shore)
1,554
3,150
48,158
3,582
27,612
277
1,206
10,764
763
5,352
1,352
2,747
41,815
3,057
23,630
23
271
1,415
42
212
California (off shore)
6,284 12,787
194,219
14,112
109,208
California (near port)
1,062
7,972
1,369
719
7,015
California (transit near port)
1,507
2,858
20,929
1,883
15,965
Washington (within shore)
Oregon (off shore)
Oregon (within shore)
PM10
SO2
Note: California ‘near port’ and ‘transit near port’ are dated;
ARB said they will provide their latest estimates.
2002 WRAP States Average Annual
Non-Road VOC Emissions (excludes CA)
180
Underground Mining Equipment
Recreational Equipment
160
Railroad Equipment
Pleasure Craft
140
Oil Field Equipment
Logging Equipment
Locomotive
Tons per Day
120
Law n and Garden Equipment
Industrial Equipment
100
Construction and Mining Equipment
Commercial Marine - Total (Within
shore+ Offshore)
Commercial Equipment
80
Airport Ground Support Equipment
Aircraft
60
Agricultural Equipment
40
20
0
AK
AZ
CO
ID
MT
NV
NM
ND
OR
SD
UT
WA
WY
2002 WRAP States Average Annual
Non-Road NOx Emissions (excludes CA)
Underground Mining Equipment
Recreational Equipment
400
Railroad Equipment
Pleasure Craft
Oil Field Equipment
350
Logging Equipment
Locomotive
300
Law n and Garden Equipment
Industrial Equipment
Construction and Mining Equipment
Tons per Day
250
Commercial Marine - Total (Within
shore+ Offshore)
Commercial Equipment
Airport Ground Support Equipment
200
Aircraft
Agricultural Equipment
150
100
50
0
AK
AZ
CO
ID
MT
NV
NM
ND
OR
SD
UT
WA
WY
2002 WRAP States Average Annual
Non-Road SO2 Emissions (excludes CA)
120
Underground Mining Equipment
Recreational Equipment
Railroad Equipment
100
Pleasure Craft
Oil Field Equipment
Logging Equipment
Tons per Day
80
Locomotive
Lawn and Garden Equipment
Industrial Equipment
60
Construction and Mining Equipment
Commercial Marine - Total (Within
shore+ Offshore)
Commercial Equipment
Airport Ground Support Equipment
40
Aircraft
Agricultural Equipment
20
0
AK
AZ
CO
ID
MT
NV
NM
ND
OR
SD
UT
WA
WY
Spatial Distribution of All RPO
Non-Road NO Emissions (July Weekday)
Spatial Distribution of All RPO
Non-Road SO2 Emissions (July Weekday)
Nonroad Sources – Emissions Projections
 Traditional nonroad sources
– NONROAD model projections
– Equipment population growth factors based on historical
equipment sales data
 Aircraft
– FAA LTO projections by airport and aircraft category
 Locomotive
– Project fuel consumption from historical trends in national
freight ton-miles/year and freight company efficiency
– Reduce emission factors to adjust for fleet turnover using
EPA analysis
 Commercial marine
– In progress
WRAP States Average Annual Non-Road
NOx and SO2 Emissions by State (excludes CA)
SO2
NOx
2000
160
Alaska
Arizona
Colorado
Idaho
Montana
Nevada
Alaska
Arizona
New
Mexico
Colorado
North
IdahoDakota
Montana
Oregon
Nevada
South
Dakota
New Mexico
North Dakota
Utah
Oregon
Washington
South Dakota
Utah
Wyoming
1800
140
Annual Average Day (Tons Per Day)
Annual Average Day (Tons Per Day)
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
120
100
80
60
Washington
Wyoming
40
400
20
200
0
0
2002
2008
2013
2018
2002
2008
2013
2018
Note: Does not include ocean going vessels; projections not yet available
WRAP States Average Annual Non-Road
NOx and SO2 Emissions by Category (excludes CA)
SO2
NOx
160
1800
Agricultural Equipment
1600
Aircraft
140
Airport Ground Support Equipment
Commercial Marine
Annual Average Day (Tons Per Day)
Annual Average Day (Tons Per Day)
1400
1200
1000
800
600
Construction and Mining Equipment
120
Equipment
Industrial
Agricultural Equipment
and Garden Equipment
Lawn
Aircraft
100
Airport Ground Support Equipment
Locomotive
Commercial Marine
Equipment
Logging
Construction
and Mining Equipment
Equipment
Field Equipment
Oil Industrial
80
Law n and Garden Equipment
Pleasure Craft
Locomotive
Equipment
Railroad
Logging Equipment
Oil Field Equipment
Equipment
Recreational
60
Pleasure Craft
Underground Mining Equipment
Railroad Equipment
Recreational Equipment
40
Underground Mining Equipment
400
200
20
0
0
2002
2008
2013
2018
2002
2008
2013
2018
Note: Does not include ocean going vessels; projections not yet available
California Mobile Source Data Issues
 CARB has its own mobile source models
– EMFAC for on-road – current is EMFAC2002;
EMFAC2005 expected “soon”
– OFFROAD for traditional nonroad sources – has not yet
been publicly released; only ARB can run and provide
emissions estimates
 CA data in current 2002 base case modeling
– On-road using EMFAC2002 run by ENVIRON
– Traditional off-road sources using ARB estimates for
CY2003 used in previous §309 modeling
– Locomotive and aircraft using ENVIRON WRAP-wide
methods
– Commercial marine
• Includes CA in current offshore work
• CA near port emissions are not included
California Mobile Source Data Issues
 CARB has just agreed (meeting one week ago) to provide all
mobile source emissions for base and future years
 Importance of CARB data
– Significant emissions in all source categories
– Can provide missing OGV in/near port emissions
 Have provided EMFAC and OFFROAD data so far
 Much work to be done with CARB data
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Data files are in unwieldy format
O&G emissions are in multiple files and formats
Projection years need to be interpolated
Pollutants to be added
SMOKE and NIF files to be generated
All summary spreadsheets, tables, graphs to be revised
Add to documentation
Will need to work with CARB to create modeling files for 2018
control strategy runs in ~6 months
Road Dust Emissions – Previous Work
 Revisions were made to unpaved road dust emissions
estimates in previous §309 modeling work
 Purposes
– To develop a better estimate than EPA’s
divide by 4
– To resolve large differences in adjacent
counties
– To use consistent methodology across states
 Revisions made
– Revised average daily traffic volume (ADTV), key parameter in
emissions estimate
– Revised silt loadings
– Applied transport fractions
 In §309 modeling, removing all road dust had essentially no
effect on visibility in Class I areas
Road Dust Emissions – Current Work
 Minimal resources allocated to update VMT estimates for
paved and unpaved roads
 Unpaved road VMT estimates were requested in future year
survey
 Inconsistency in State responses
– Most States were not able to provide information on unpaved
road VMT, or guessed a fraction of paved VMT by county and
roadway type
– Montana used ADTV estimates for unpaved roads, including “off
system” roads, to revise unpaved road VMT
 Updated transport fractions will be applied in SMOKE to all
fugitive dust sources, and are not included in ENVIRON
emissions estimates
Comparison of Previous and Current
Road Dust PMC Emissions
200,000
Previous version
160,000
Current revision
Tons/yr
120,000
80,000
40,000
0
AZ
CA
CO
ID
MT
NV
Note – data not available yet for CA revision
NM
ND
OR
SD
UT
WA
WY
Spatial Distribution of All RPO Road
Dust PMC Emissions (July Weekday)
Mobile Source Emission Inventory
– Remaining Work
 Obtain and process all CA data
 Commercial marine projections
 Documentation – detailed report including:
–
–
–
–
All assumptions and data used
Emissions estimation models and methods
Projection methods
Results in summary tables and graphs
 Future years data summaries to be posted to the
project web page
http://www.wrapair.org/forums/ef/UMSI/index.html
– Detailed emission inventory results
– Summary spreadsheets and maps