Transcript Ch 1: Selling our Future

Events
vs.
Trends
While other societies
can be traced to
specific events that
lead to their
collapse, our global
society faces a
dilemma that is
trend-driven.
Soil erosion, falling water
tables, rising carbon
emissions are not easily
reversed.
Monsoons, droughts,
heat waves are specific
events, temporary
repercussions.
Food as a Weak Link
SUPPLY:
DEMAND:
Soil Erosion
Population Growth
Melting ice caps
Use of grain to fuel cars
Available Land
Increased animal consumption
Rising Sea Levels
Rich vs. Poor countries
Supply &
Demand are
in a constant
imbalance
Resource
Trends
Affecting
Supply
 Cropland loss to non farming:
 Increase in paving of roads
 Suburban sprawl
 Advancing deserts
 Reduction of oil supplies:
Increased use of automobiles
Increased food production
(tillage, irrigation, harvesting
Easy access oil well running dry
 Diversion of irrigation water to cities:
Growing population drinks more
water
Cities (Denver) not near large bodies
of water
Over pumping of aquifers
Results:
”Business as usual is no longer a viable option”

Cropland loss to non farming:
 People turning to oceans for protein, world seafood supply
is now dependent on fish farms
 Increased demand for fish feed as a result of farming fish

Diversion of irrigation water to cities:
 Aquifers run dry, can no longer grow crops (Saudi Arabia
discontinuing wheat production as of 2016)
 Shortage in water shrinks grain harvest, leads to need for
genetically modified organisms
Reduction of oil supplies:
More oil resources burned by going deeper/further to harvest oil
Decline in available oil results in not enough affordable fuel to keep
producing crops, turn to genetically modified organisms
Politics of Food
In 2007 Russia and
Argentina started
banning exports in an
attempt to keep
domestic food a
reasonable price.
Background:
* Countries that imported
goods were no longer able
to rely on the market,
sought to make long term
deals with countries still
willing to export…to no
avail.
Land Buyouts
 Affluent countries (Saudi Arabia)
purchased land in poorer nations
such as Ethiopia.
 Affluent countries are also buying
land for water use.
 Usually controversial agreements
between affluent and host
countries.
Results
 Host countries now have less land to feed the already
starving nation.
 Host country has less water, even greater
dependence on imported grain.
 Host nations have even more political unrest.
 Buyouts usually occurring in countries with tropical
rainforests, results in slash and burn.
 Farmers are not involved in land buyout agreements,
are forced to leave their land, greater unemployment
rate.
Global Economy Ponzi
 By consuming natural resources, our economy is able to stay
alive, these resources will run out.
 400 million people being fed by over pumping aquifers,
irrigation rivers running stronger than ever due to glacial melt.
 Over fishing in areas: High yields now, not indefinitely (Cod
fishing in the Northeast).
Paul Hawken: Blessed Unrest
Sir Nicolas Stern:
Market Price:
What you pay
2009 gas was $3
gallon)
Finding the oil
Pumping to the
surface
Refining
Delivering
(in
per
The difference between Market Price for
fossil fuels and Honest Price is great
Honest Price: What you
pay, plus the environment
and society costs (in 2009
gas should have been $ 15 per
gallon)
Everything from Market
Price
Cost of climate change
Tax subsidies to the oil
industry
Military protection costs
This type of market behavior is leading to the destruction of natural
Healthcare costs
D e s t r u c t i o n o f n a t u r a l s support
u p p o r t systems
systems leads to state failure
Failing States: Characteristics
 High fertility rates in women
 High rates of population growth
 Majority of population is young (40% under 15)
 Deterioration of physical infrastructure
Failing States: Results
 Food shortages
 High food prices
 High percentage of unemployed youth
 Political unrest
 Lacking in functional healthcare system
 Breakdown of law and order, loss of
personal security
Failing States (2008)
Scores are
based on 12
social,
political,
economical,
and military
indicators
out of 120.
Plan B: A Plan to Save Civilization
 Cutting carbon emissions
 Stabilizing the population
 Eradicating poverty
 Restoring the earths natural systems
Cutting Carbon Emissions
By 80% in
2020
Dramatically raise
energy efficiency
worldwide
Banning deforestation,
planting trees by the
billions
Investing in
renewable
resources
Stabilizing the Population
8 Billion
Must
Reduce
Fertility
Needs to
stop before
mortality rate
increases
Projected
9.2 billion by
2050 with
2.4 billion in
developing
countries
Restoring the Earth’s Natural Systems
 Conserving soil
 Banning deforestation
 Promoting reforestation
 Restoring fisheries
 Protecting aquifers by raising water
productivity
 Essential to reverse the rise in hunger
“The challenge is not only to build
a new economy but to do so at
wartime speed before we miss so
many of nature’s deadlines that
the economic system begins to
unravel. Participating in the
construction of this enduring new
economy is exhilarating. So is the
quality of life it will bring. A
world where population has
stabilized, forests are
expanding, and carbon
emissions are falling is
within our grasp.”