Transcript top 50 1993
Energy, Economic Growth and the Environment John Barrett University of Leeds Scale of the challenge Source: IPCC (2014) UK Climate Challenge UK Climate Challenge UK Emissions 2012 – 2100 to achieve equitable 2 degree benchmark with 67% probability 0.70 0.60 Gt C 0.50 0.40 97% reduction by 2050 0.30 0.20 0.10 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 0.90 0.80 Comparison of 2 degree equitable reduction with CCC budgets 0.60 0.50 CCC Suggested Targets 0.40 0.30 Production 0.20 0.10 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 - 2013 Gt C 67% reduction by 2027 0.70 Global trade Source: Barrett et al (2013) Global trade 1200 Megatonnes CO2e 1000 800 600 UK comsumption-based emissions 400 UK territorial emissions 200 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: Barrett et al (2013) Global trade 1200 800 Territorial Emissions 600 80% reduction target Consumption Emissions Additional burden 400 200 2050 2047 2044 2041 2038 2035 2032 2029 2026 2023 2020 2017 2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 0 1990 Gt CO2e 1000 Source: www.emissions.leeds.ac.uk Energy demand Source: DUKES (2015) Energy demand Source: DUKES (2015) Energy demand 20% 43% Industry Other Transport Domestic 22% 15% Source: DUKES (2015) Energy demand 18,000 16,000 14,000 PetaJoules 12,000 10,000 Eora Imports 8,000 Eora Domestic 6,000 4,000 2,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 EU Energy Flows Linking energy to the global economy Direct Efficiency Options • Improvements in material efficiency • Heat transfer • Fuel substitution Direct energy efficiency options Source: Climate Strategies (2014) Direct energy efficiency options Source: Climate Strategies (2014) Industry rebound effects Source: Saunders (2013) Energy services efficiency approach • • • • • • • • • Lean Production Service business models Waste recycling and reduction Circular economy Material substitution Public sector procurement Lifetime optimisation Good to services Reducing waste Findings inefficiencies – the car Material manufacturing Vehicles manufacturing Car use Material Car occupancy 5 – 15% 20 – 25% 50 – 80% 40 – 60% Resource efficiency strategies Source: Barrett and Scott(2012) Policy Options IPCC Summary: Based on Figure 10.15 Policy Options Economy wide approach • • Materials tax Energy demand target and tax / market Sector response • • Construction (NIPs, Allowable Solutions) Vehicles (Weight regulations, VAT exemptions) Consumer solutions • • Mandatory warranties Goods to services Extending existing policies Current regulation EcoDesign Directive Possible addition Within current scope to set requirements to address some aspects of embodied emissions, including minimum guaranteed product lifetimes and promoting modularity, upgrading and repair (European Union 2009). Additional requirements More appropriate methods to be used for preparatory studies in the EcoDesign Directive, which used more recent data, accounted for technology development and took into account product lifetimes. Energy Performance Extend current requirements to include of Buildings Directive embodied energy in the integrated energy performance of buildings (Szalay 2007). Standardisation of the calculation of embodied energy for building elements and processes. Vehicle Emissions Performance Standard Standardisation for the calculation of embodied emissions for vehicle elements and processes. Extend standards to include wholelifetime emissions (Correia et al 2014). Extending existing policies Climate policy Operational emissions Embodied emissions Non-EU Annex Non-Annex I I Embodied emissions originating in EU ETS sectors 1.9 billion tonnes 12% of the 173.24 EU's emissions of CO2 99.52 - - - Emissions outside scope of EU climate mitigation policy - 56.42 116.23 110.91 234.98 35.51 92.52 59.24 168.31 36% 503.36 (commercial and residential only = 15%) 83.03 174.81 357.96 403.24 EU EU ETS Vehicle emissions standards Ecodesign Directive The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive Distribution effects 80.00 70.00 Other 60.00 Miscellaneous goods and services Restaurants and hotels Education 50.00 Co2e (t) Recreation and culture Communication 40.00 Transport Health Household goods and services 30.00 Housing, fuel and power Clothing and footwear 20.00 Alcoholic drinks, tobacco and narcotics Food and non-alcoholic drinks 10.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Adaptive dynamic policy Source: Haasnoot et al (2013) Further research Economics of material efficiency – Implications for jobs, GDP, trade, investment, deficits Development of a macro-economic model Establishing industry responses to changing business models Case study analysis of different industry responses from construction, car manufacturing and household durables Policy responses to material efficiency Agent based modelling of key actors from EU and national policy making organisations Responses to changing in the construction sector Development of a bottom up and top down model of building types