Transcript Issues identified by UNEP and the Government of Kenya for

CLIMATE RISK: REVIEW OF
PROGRESS IN SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY
L.A.OGALLO
IGAD CLIMATE AND APPLICATIONS
CENTRE (ICPAC) www.icpac.net
Dept. of Met. University of Nairobi
KEY ISSUES
Review of Progress of S & T issues
in support of Climate risk reduction:
GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR
CLIMATE SERVICES (GFCS): An
international framework to guide the
development of climate services (UN
system /WMO and all): WCC-3 plus
recent WMO documents
• Challenges of developing countries
Climate risks in developing countries
• Economic losses as percent of GDP eg one
cyclone 10% GDP lost; One flood 15% on
national economy (GDP) - followed
immediately with severe drought lasting five
years wiping serving livelihoods left by
floods )
• Roles of Non climate hazards: Need for
integrated Disaster risk reduction
• No sustainable development can be
achieved within DRR
Infrastructure and Industry
SOCIO - ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Agriculture & Food Security
5
Knowledge of interactions at Global,
Regional and Local level
(i) Research, S &T : Advance understanding /
knowledge of Climate Risk
Hazards; Values at risks, Vulnerability
vs capacity
- Mapping at global, regional and local
levers
- Improved understanding of Causes and
Linkages
- New tools and methods eg impacts,
vulnerability, adaptation
- GIS
Experience from WMO regional centres
Examples of Floods are followed by
droughts in Greater Horn of Africa
Need to understand extremes, predict and early warn
Know the hazards well
and the interactions
Precipitation anomalies during El Niño in Winter
Key progress areas
• Observations (GCOS, GOOS, GTOS,GEOSS-----) re-analysed data, and enhanced
monitoring (space based technology)
• Data recovery, Data base archiving, …and
providing historical baseline references
• Modeling and prediction
• Early warning
• Availability of regional / sector specific
down scaled climate products
• Dissemination and exchange of climate
information and services
Progress in Climate risk reduction
• Networking and coordination (WMO system)
• Capacity building
• Linkages with users to reduce climate risks
• Institutional framework: Global , regional
National, and LOCAL climate services
• Partnerships for pilot demonstrations
• Climate change challenges vs DRR
• Low Science and technological support to
climate risk reduction
GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE
SERVICES (GFCS)
-An international framework to
guide the development of climate
services (UN system /WMO and all)
-Framework to link climate science,
developments in S & T with all climate
related risks (climate variability,
change and DRR)
Climate services including integrated
Disaster risk reduction
(Three tie WMO system)
• WMO Global Producing Centres for
Long Range Forecasts
• WMO Regional climate Centres of
excellence
• National Meteorological and
hydrological services (NMHSs)
• LOCAL COMMUNITY LEVEL not very
clear left to regional climate centres
Global Producing Centres
for Long Range Forecasts
2M Temperature (MAM 2010)
Operational activities for long-range forecasting
Beijing
Montreal
ECMWF
Moscow
Exeter
Seoul
Melbourne
Toulouse
Washington
Rainfall (MAM 2010)
Beijing
Montreal
ECMWF
Moscow
Exeter
Seoul
Melbourne
Toulouse
Washington
CURRENT 3 MAJOR AFRICAN CLIMATE CENTRES
30
20
10
NIAMEY,
0
ACMAD
-10
-20
ICPAC, Nairobi,
ATLANTIC
OCEAN
INDIAN OCEAN
-30
-10
0
10
20
DMCH- Harare
30
40
50
10 ICPAC MEMBER COUNTRIES
30
Sudan
Eritrea
20
Djibouti
10
Ethiopia
Somalia
0
-10
Uganda
Kenya
-20
Rwanda
Burundi
Tanzania
-30
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
RCOFs based Food Security outlooks FEWS/ NET;
Most-likely scenario
MAM 2010
Translating prob.
into rainfall anomalies
SEECOF
(Southeastern Europe)
PRESAO
(West Africa)
PRESAC
(Central Africa)
FOCRAII
(Asia)
CCOF
SASCOF
(India)
FCCA
GHACOF
(Greater Horn of
Africa)
SARCOF
(Southern Africa)
(Caribbean)
(Central America)
PICOF
(Pacific Islands)
WCSACOF
(Western Coast of
South America)
SSACOF
(Southeast of
South America)
Science and technology needs and
Gaps
• Observations and data recovery /
archiving
• Regional data base and data
management
• Modeling, prediction and early
warning
• Computing and related needs
- Lack of integrated DRR and S $ T
policies
(No clear linkages / clear policy for
integration with DRR and S & T
innovations)
- Knowing regional / local hazards
(Quantification of hazards,
vulnerability)
- Human and technical capacity
:Multi / Inter disciplinary
- Low investments in research, S & T
(Lack policy on Research, S & T
largely sectors specific , driven by
individuals)
- Weak National /regional Institutions
, with minimum network with
universities, and community based
systems that could be used to
demonstrate good practices
- Climate change challenges
• Lack of capability to use the available S
& T and climate information
• Role of local/ Indigenous knowledge in
DRR
• Finance : Opportunities eg climate fund
• Regional Collaborations / coordination
and networks
- Assessment of existing capacity
- Enhance capacity of exiting institutions for
multi disciplinary DDR approaches (eg The
African regional centres)
CONCLUSION
• Role that S $ T can play has been
demonstrated
• Limitation of developing countries to take
advantage of available S $ T in DRR
• Regional Efforts: Ministerial conferences for MET
and DRR; AUC workshop on the Global platform
• Global DRR Platform provide a framework
for ensuring S&T to DRR in developing
countries. These should include support for
local / regional research and capacity
building together with S&T innovations for
local solutions