Transcript Chapter 1 Key Messages

Asia Pacific Disasters Report 2012
Making Development Resilient
Key Messages
Key Message 1
Development can reduce
vulnerability. Development
expands exposure
75% of deaths due to disasters from
1970 to 2011 from Asia Pacific
Human exposure to tropical cyclone is
increasing
For hydromet hazards, mortality risks
are decreasing for some sub-regions
Cyclone mortality
Flood mortality
Landslide mortality
East and North-east Asia
Death continue to rise for small scale
disasters
Mortality due to small scale disasters in the Lao People’s Democratic
Republic (above) and Indonesia (below), 1970-2009
For low capacity countries, small scale
disasters equally destructive
Mortality (above) and housing damage
(below) in Nepal from 1970-2009
Urban growth increases disaster risks
Household fire events in Odisha State, India (1980-1990
compared to 2000-2010)
Economic losses in 2011, 80% of total
losses for 2000 to 2009
RATE of losing wealth due to disasters
faster than RATE of gaining wealth
Losses since 1980 increased by 16 times
while GDP per capita grew 13 times.
Development was unable to reduce
risks, and may drive its growth
Total Damage and losses
in million USD
Thailand floods 2011: 90 percent of
total losses borne by private sector
Key Message 1
Development can reduce
vulnerability. Development
expands exposure
Key Message 2
DRR investment can reduce
vulnerability.
Setting a target can help design
DRR investments.
DRR investments increasing, but more
can be done
1.2
1
Central government budget (%)
GDP (%)
0.8
% 0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2006
2008
2010
2012
Indonesia’s DRR budget, as % of govt budget and % of GDP
Economic vulnerability depends on
size, fiscal space of economies
1.0%
1,800
0.9%
1,600
0.8%
1,400
0.7%
1,200
0.6%
1,000
0.5%
800
0.4%
600
0.3%
200
0.0%
0
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La
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0.1%
es
ia
400
ne
s
0.2%
% of GDP
USD Million
Annual expected economic losses in South East Asia (Data source – World
Bank/GFDRR 2012)
The People Pay for Losses
Small and marginal farmers to pay
Lao PDR Typhoon Ketsana
2009
Private (%)
($ 0.54 billion)
Public (%)
Poor urban household to pay
Philippines Typhoon
Ondoy 2009
($ 4.30 billion)
Poor household, small and marginal farmers to pay
Pakistan floods 2010
($ 9.70 billion)
Manufacturers, insurance companies to pay
Thai floods 2011
($ 44 billion)
0
10
20
30
40
50
%
60
70
80
90
100
MDG progress hampered by disaster
impacts
(%)
80
75
Observed total net enrolment ratio in primary
schools and projections with the occurrence of
successive disasters in Pakistan
70
65
60
55
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Observed total net enrolment ratio in Primary school, both sexes
Projection with the 2005 earthquake event
Projection with the 2005 earthquake and 2007 cyclone events
Projection with the 2005 earthquake, 2007 cyclone and 2010 flood events
2010
MDG progress hampered by disaster
impacts
Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)
35
30
25
Infant mortality rate to dzud
disaster vs. national average in
Mongolia
19.8
20
17.8
19.6
32.3
22.7
20.2
15
10
5
0
2006
2007
National average
2008
2009
Dzud affected provinces (March)
2010
Approaches to DRR Investments
• Bangladesh invested more than $10 billion in
DRR during the past 35 years resulting in
decline disaster losses
• Chinas Comprehensive Disaster Prevention
and Reduction Plan (2011-2015) envisages
increased investments to reduce disaster
losses to less than 1.5% GDP
Universal social protection is
affordable and can address disaster
vulnerabilities
Source: http://www.dw.de/
Key Message 2
DRR investment can reduce
vulnerability.
Setting a target can help design
DRR investments.
Key Message 3
Land use planning, supply chain
management, disaster recovery
have the potential to reduce
exposure
Most countries don't have national
land use plans
Land use
law
Nat’l
land use
plan
Local
land use
plan
Most land use policy/plan are risk
sensitive
Land use plans don't include
capabilities, use of damage
estimation for planning
OBJECTIVE
Reduce
exposure,
vulnerability
SENSITIVITY
Risk info,
patterns
used
IMPLEMEN
TATION
Cost and
benefits or
options,
capacities
required
Land use plans turn to investments
when understood to serve public
interests
Influenced by
risk communication
and cost benefit
analysis
Increasing risks of supply chain
disruptions due to disasters
March 2011 Japanese quake reduced
by up to 20% automobile production
Auto production after Japanese earthquake
in neighbouring countries
Percentage change (% y-o-y)
40
20
0
JAPAN
THAILAND
PHILIPPINES
-20
-40
-60
March-11
April to June-11
INDONESIA
2011 Thailand floods tripled global
cost of hard drives
Post Disaster Needs Assessments Not
Widely Used for DRR Actions
DRR
ASSESSMENT
DRR
PLANNING
DRR
INVESTMENT
PDNA
Other tools
Disaster Recovery Planning can
Reduce Exposure to Future Hazards
Disaster recovery can be driver to
revisit laws, policies for resilience
Key Message 3
Land use planning, supply chain
management, disaster recovery
have the potential to reduce
exposure
Key Message 4
“How to do” DRR
- Its non-linear
- It needs to be explicit
HFA Priority 1 progressed most
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3
2.9
2.8
1.1 National policy 1.2 Dedicated and 1.3 Assurance of 1.4 Functioning
and legal
adequate
community
national multiframew ork
resources available participation and sectoral platform
decentralisation
for DRR
Adoption of the HFA, impetus for
DRR legislation development
Dealing with underlying risk
factors weakest element of laws
National Plans and Strategies on
DRR cover HFA in varying degrees
DRR and CCA getting mainstreamed
into development plans
No correlation between DRR
legislation, policy and integration in
development planning
DRR
Law
DRR
Policy
DRR
in Devt
Decentralization of responsibilities
need resources, capabilities
Central
Responsi
bility
Resources
Local
Capabilities
Stand alone efforts in DRR
decentralization are not effective
Overall Decentralization Process
Political
Fiscal
Market
Administ
rative
DRR Decentralization
Most “national platforms” on DRR are
not multi-stakeholder
National DRR
Platform
Other sectors and stakeholders
More attention on holding officials
accountable for reducing vulnerability
than reducing exposure
Key Message 4
“How to do” DRR
- Its non-linear
- It needs to be explicit
Summary - Key Messages
• Development can reduce vulnerability.
Development expands exposure
• DRR investment can reduce vulnerability. Setting a
target can help design DRR investments.
• Land use planning, supply chain management,
disaster recovery have the potential to reduce
exposure
• “How to do” DRR
– Its non-linear
– It needs to be explicit
Ways Forward
• Focus on enabling development strategies
that reduce exposure
– Focus on the “how to?” and on removing barriers
– Focus on building the socio-economic evidence
base, on improving risk communication
– Focus on building social demand
– Focus on outcome targets to build case for DRR
investments