Transcript Day2_Japan experience on DRR_Takeya [PPTX

JICA’s Cooperation for
DRR / HFA activities & HFA 2
= 1st Arab Conference on DRR =
March 2013
TAKEYA Kimio
Senior Advisor, Japan International Cooperation Agency
[email protected]
Hyogo Framework for Action
Overall Goal:
Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters
Three Strategic Goals:
The integration of
disaster risk reduction
into sustainable
development policies
and planning
Development and
strengthening of
institutions, mechanism
and capacities to build
resilience to hazards
The systematic incorporation
of risk reduction approaches
into the implementation of
emergency preparedness,
response and recovery
Priorities for Action:
HFA1
HFA2
HFA3
HFA4
HFA5
Make
Disaster
Risk
Reduction
a Priority
Know the
Risks and
Take
Action
Build
Understan
ding and
Awareness
Reduce
Risk
Be
Prepared
and Ready
to Act
1
1
JICA’s Support meet to the Priority Action
• The projects related to priority action 4 are increasing rapidly
compared to others.
• It entails the best mix of structural and non-structural measures.
Priority 1_Ensure priority of disaster risk reduction
300
Priority 2_Knowing disaster risk and act
Priority 3_Improve knowledge of disaster risk reduction
250
259
Priority 4
280
Priority 4_Reduce risks
Priority 5_Prepare in advance and be ready to act for emergency
200
206
159
Priority 2
150
116
Priority 5
Priority 3
100
68
Priority 1
43
47
50
0
39
20
～1980
15
420
1981～1985
96
81
25
34
5
13
40
1985～1990
60
1991～1995
23
12
0
1996～2000
42
54
25
32
2
2
2001～2005
2006～2008
2
Trend in JICA’s Activity
2001～
1991～2000
1981～1990
Non Structure
Structure
Structure and Non Structure
～1980
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
(Number of projects）
Majority of JICA Projects up to 90’s : Structural measures
from 2000 : Non structural measures
Projects by combination of structural and non-structural measures are
increasing.
3
3
Typical Disaster Management Cycle & DRR
・Reconstruction and Rehabilitation of Infrastructure
・Mental Health Care
Mitigation
Recovery
・Dispatch of Rescue team
・Provision of Rescue supply
・Hazard mapping, evacuation drill
・Organization Reinforcement
・Establishment of Disaster Management Plan
・Development of Early Warning System
Preparedness
Response
Disaster
4
Example of Practical DRR Support
Understand the risk
Adapt for the Risk
Response Plan
Prepare, Mitigate the Risk
Urban Planning
Building Codec
Transportation
Anti Earthquake Hospital
・・・
Education
・・・
5
Algeria Seismic Micro Zoning Survey
damages of building
6
Expected Death Number
7
Expected Bridge Damage
8
Expected Water supply Damage
9
Expected Electricity Supply Damage
10
Practical Support
Understand the risk
Business
Continuity Plan
Transportation
for the
Anti Earthquake Hospital
Education
“Country”
Adapt for the Risk
Response Plan
Prepare, Mitigate the Risk
Urban Planning
Building Codec
・・・
・・・
11
Three keys for Successful DRR
Self Support
or
Self Defense
Public
Support
12
Mutual
Support
JICA’s another Support to Mainstreaming the
National Disaster Management for Asia
• Sri Lanka
– Support to Capacity Development for
“Disaster Management Center” of Sri Lanka
• Thailand
– Support to Capacity development for
“Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM)”
• Indonesia
– Support to National Disaster Management Plan & Regional
Disaster Management Plan through
BNPB, National Disaster Management Agency Capacity
Development
•
Public
Philippines
Support
– Support Office of Civil Defense Capacity Development
13
Disaster obstruct Development
At least, Build-back-better
Development
Normal Development
Recovery & Development
Disaster
Disaster
Obstructed by
Disasters,
far away from
MDGs
Disaster
Time
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History of flood control in Tone River basin (400years ago)
Up to 15th Century, Tone River
crossed the Kanto Plain from north
to south and flew into Tokyo Bay
Watarase River
Tone River
From 1594 to 1654, Tone River was
connected to Pacific Ocean by
eastward channel
・After the flood in 1910, flood
control measures in upper and
middle reaches has changed from
“flood control allowing inundation”
to “sequential levees confinement”
・After this change, the maximum
discharge in the Tone River
Channel has increased, which
became the main challenge of
flood control in Tone River Basin
Kokai River
Kinu River
Watarase River
Kinu River
Kokai River
Tone River
Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan
Reduction of flood damages in Japan by continuous investment
Number of fatalities
This seems rare case in the
world to spent so much money
to prevention
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Area inundated (ha)
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
Number of fatalities and inundation area have dramatically been reduced in Japan
due to continuous investment in and efforts for flood mitigation.
Source: Water Disaster Statistics, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure Transport and Tourism
2002
2007
What is the barrier for mainstreaming the DRR
Development
Normal Development
At least,“build-back-better”
Recovery & Development
Disaster
but DRR investmentDisaster
is
Disaster
much
cheaper than recovery
Obstructed by
Disasters,
far away from
MDGs
How to convince & mainstream DRR?
Time
Need to show the evidence
!
17
JICA developing Economic Model
to show the effectiveness of DRR investment
• Economical Model which can measure
– GDP change
– income differential and Gini coefficient change in
Lorenz curve
• With & Without DRR investment
• Named
18
Differences with/without DRR investment
to GDP
without disaster
With DRR Investment
（with disaster）
Sustainable development
GDP
Disaster Event
Enlarged view
Stop of
economic
activity by direct
damage
⇒ Expansion of
poverty
Without DRR Investment
（with disaster）
Stagnation of economic activity
and the recovery delay due to
lack of funds
→ continuation of poverty trap
Effect of
DRR investment
Indicators to
evaluate the entire
benefit (A)
By the conventional
benefit evaluation
method, benefit of
DRR investment is
evaluated with
collective amount of
the society.
(GRP and/or GDP)
Time
By disasters, increasing poverty and continued to be stuck in an increase in
poverty, widening inequality, from the trap of poverty
Differences with/without DRR investment
to Lorenz curve
1
Income Cumulative
Relative Frequency
Most Rich
Better Off
45度線
Near Poor
Poor
Extreme Poor
0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Household No Cumulative Relative Frequency
20
Show the evidence to Policy Maker
Mainstreaming DRR
without disaster
With DRR Investment
（with disaster）
Sustainable development
Effect of
DRR investment
GDP
to Goverment Policy
Disaster Event
Enlarged view
Stop of
economic
activity by direct
damage
⇒ Expansion of
poverty
Without DRR Investment
（with disaster）
Stagnation of economic activity
and the recovery delay due to
lack of funds
→ continuation of poverty trap
Indicators to
evaluate the entire
benefit (A)
By the conventional
benefit evaluation
method, benefit of
DRR investment is
evaluated with
collective amount of
the society.
(GRP and/or GDP)
Show how Disaster Risk Reduction
Time
Investment
account
for
By disasters, increasing poverty and continued to be stuck in an increase in
poverty, widening inequality,Development
from the trap of poverty
Deliver as a Computer Software
22
Combination of Structural Measures
and Non-Structural Measures
Effectiveness
Investment and Effectiveness
Safety Level
Target
Levee
Barrage
Reservoir System
Levee
Investment
23
Combination of Structural Measures
and Non-Structural Measures
Effectiveness
Goal
Mitigation
Adaptation
Safe and/or Resilient
Non-Structural
Measures
Safety Level
Target
Levee
Structural
Barrage Measures
ReservoirInfrastructures)
System
(Basic
Levee
Control, Protection
Investment
24
JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster
from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1
• Was there anything out of our mind?
The ability to recognize risk
and take action properly
JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster
from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1
• Was there anything out of our mind?
The ability to recognize risk
and take action properly
Tsunami Evacuation Situation in general
• Population of damaged area of 3 prefectures,
1km from coast is 460,000, 3km 1.0million, 5km
1.5million
• Total causalities were around 26,000
• 460,000 residents lived in the tsunami affected area so
that evacuation ratio can be estimated more than 90 %
• This high evacuation ratio achieved by legend
transmission, by Tsunami Early Warning System and
by evacuation drill effort
• 65% of casualties were aged people, over 65 y.o.
27
Successful Evacuation by Students in Kamaishi City
The students started evacuation promptly and voluntarily,
following their experiences of evacuation drills.
The students decided to evacuate further to higher ground
based on their own observation of situation.
(Source: Research Center for Disaster Prevention in the Extended Tokyo
Metropolitan Area, Gunma University)
28
Combination of Structural Measures
and Non-Structural Measures
Effectiveness
Climate Variability?
Climate Change?
Safety Level
Target
Levee
or Project
How
to prepare
is not
excess flood?
completed
yet
Barrage
Reservoir System
Levee
Investment
29
How about the magnitude of big earthquake?
E/Q happens with long return period
Lesson learned of E/Q transferred to
next generation?
If no, you can learn from examples
•
C:\DATA\DATA\日本の知見\耐震実験\www.bosai.go.jp\hyogo\movie.html
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How about the magnitude of big earthquake
• C:\DATA\DATA\日本の知見\耐震実験
\www.bosai.go.jp\hyogo\movie.html
31
Variety of Early Warnings for Tsunami in Japan
• TV and Radio, emergency warning
• Cell phone warning for earthquake
• Registered earthquake broadcast service
• Loud speaker evacuation order to community
• others
32
Every Natural Disaster has forerunning phenomenon
then we can predict disaster & let people evacuate
実写
奈良県
Even debris flow
We can predict
JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster
from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 2
• Was there anything out of our mind?
continuous improvement to deal
with changing risk
34
JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster
from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 3
• Was there anything out of our mind?
“multi-sector” and/or
“multilayer of defense
35
JICA’s Lesson Learnt from MEGA Disaster
=2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood=
• Was there anything out of our mind?
The ability to recognize risk
and take action properly
“multi-sector” and/or
“multilayer of defense
Three Principles for
No or Low Regret Investment
for Sustainable Development
Capacity of society
To cope with disaster
continuous improvement to deal
with changing risk
36
JICA’s Mainstreaming DRR initiative
• There are so many project which forgot to
pay attention to DRR,
same as Thailand industrial zone
• JICA internally planning to mobilize the
process mainstreaming DRR into every
JICA project
• Set the mandatory process to all project,
“Disaster Risk Assessment”
37
Structure of Post ＨＦＡ
Post MDG
/SDG
Prepared by Kenso Hiroki, ICHARM
Goals and
targets
HFA 1
～2015
HFA 2
New experiences, lessons and
progress
Items that were not recognized as subjects of HFA
Proposing tools for Post MDG/HFA
Convince Policy Maker
by DR2AD Model
Three Principles approach for
Low Regret Investment
Disaster Risk Assessment
to all projects
39
Thank you for your attention
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