Transcript The limits to adaptation and why Loss and Damage is an

The limits to adaptation and why Loss and
Damage is an essential component of the
climate regime.
Insights from science and practice for climate risk
management and climate justice.
Side Event of the Loss and Damage Network hosted by
Practical Action
Thursday, 26 May 2016 - 11:30—13:00 - Bonn I/II
Agenda
Statements and perspectives by
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Colin McQuistan (Practical Action)
Reinhard Mechler (IIASA/Vienna Univ. of Economics and Business)
Saleemul Huq (International Centre for Climate Change and
Development, Independent University Bangladesh)
Swenja Surminski (LSE)
Laura Schäfer (UNU/MCII)
Commentary
• Sven Harmeling (CARE International)
Followed by open plenary discussion.
@LossDamage
Loss and Damage Network
Loss and Damage Network
Perspectives on Loss and Damage
Boyd, James and Jones, 2016
AA-2 year workplan
• AA1: Particularly vulnerable developing countries,
populations, ecosystems
• AA2: Comprehensive risk management approaches
• AA3: Slow onset events
• AA4: Non-economic losses
• AA5: Resilience, recovery and rehabilitation
• AA6: Migration, displacement and human mobility
• AA7: Financial instruments and tools
NGO perspective on Loss & Damage
Colin McQuistan,
Senior Policy Adviser, Climate Change and DRR, Practical Action
CLIMATE CHANGE?
RIGHTS ISSUE
FINANCING FOR LOSS AND DAMAGE?
CARE ECONOMY
INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
INFORMATION GAP
INFORMATION OVERLOAD
Joint Needs Assessment
SOS and D-Form
Union Fact
Sheets
Flood
forecasts
Other data
sources
Disaster Management Plan
What is the role for NGO in the Loss and
Damage debate?
Innovative need to leveraging complementary
skills & expertise
Knowledge for action
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Research and modeling
Scientific credibility
Influence regulation
Methodologies & tools
Catalyze
- Risk engineering
- Financial resources
- Influence and advocacy
Global Reach
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Community presence
Scale
Influence and advocacy
Technical Innovation
Innovation & Technical Advice
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Small and agile
Innovation and ideas
piloting
The space for Loss and Damage
and policy options
Reinhard Mechler, Thomas Schinko
(IIASA - WU, Vienna - WEGCC, Graz)
Side Event of the Loss and Damage Network
SB 44, Bonn 26.5.2016
The debate is…
• Damage: to be replaced and repaired
• Loss: irreversible
• Retrospective: Dealing with actual Loss and
Damage
• Prospective: Avoiding future Loss and Damage
Perspectives on Loss and Damage
Boyd, James and Jones, 2016
Suggestion for Loss & Damage space
• Combining perspectives on risk, limits to
adaptation, and existential impacts
Ex-ante support for physically and socially
intolerable climate-related damage as well
as ex-post finance for loss.
Confidence levels of attribution of different types
of impacts to anthropogenic climate change
Huggel et al., 2016
IPCC Working group II: Risk perspective
IMPACTS
CLIMATE
Vulnerability
SOCIOECONOMIC
PROCESSES
Socioeconomic
Pathways
Natural
Variability
Hazards
RISK
Anthropogenic
Climate Change
Exposure
EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change
Adaptation and
Mitigation
Actions
Governance
Understanding risk
• Observations
• System understanding
• Model simulations
Huggel et al., 2013
Climate change and disaster risk
Hazard
Exposure
C
Vulnerability
Risk
Climate change and disaster risk
Hazard
Intensities, duration and frequencies of
some hazards changing (IPCC 2012&14)
Extreme event attribution in early stages
(James et al., 2014; Trenberth et al., 2015)
Exposure
Dominating factor - currently
(IPCC, 2012&14)
C
Vulnerability
Key driver, knowledge gaps, significant
adaptation deficit (IPCC, 2012)
Risk
Climate attribution very complex
(Schaller et al., 2016)
The space for Loss & Damage
Mechler & Schinko, in review
The space for Loss & Damage
Mechler & Schinko, in review
The space for Loss & Damage
Mechler & Schinko, in review
Risk space: Action by the DRR community
Prevent: 13%
Disaster–related financing 1991-2010
Kellet and Caravani, 2013
Risk space: examples
• Climate Risk Management
• Climate insurance
• InsuResilience
Funding perspective: What and how to
support coping with L&D risk?
• Regional and national level: Risk pooling and financing Sovereign insurance and regional pools:
 Caribbean, Pacific, Africa
• Linking to disaster risk reduction
• National to community level: Public-private partnerships
for comprehensive risk reduction: National funds to bolster
community-level risk management partnerships – Flood
Resilience Alliance & Measuring resilience (Peru)
Examples: Measures for irreversible loss
• Relocation
• Migration
• Displacement Facility
• IPCC, SYR, 2014:
Without additional mitigation efforts beyond those in
place today, and even with adaptation, warming by the
end of the 21st century will lead to high to very high risk
of severe, wide-spread and irreversible impacts globally
(high confidence).
Dangerous Climate Change 2014
Reasons for Concern
IPCC WGII AR5 Summary for Policymakers
Today
IPCC, 2014
Overall
Other options
including
financing
5 Discussion and conclusions
• L&D space aligns need for action on climate risk
management with a concern for measures for
irreversible loss
• Global implication: Funding requirements
• National to local implication: allocation opportunities
based on capacity and needs