Transcript DRR and CCA quantifying the benefits

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Disaster Risk Reduction
& Climate Adaptation
Quantifying the Benefits
Conceptual Starting Point
 Adaptation is not “coping” – in well adapted
systems people and the environmental and other
features they value are “doing well”
 “Doing well” as variability and extreme events
increase with climate change will require effective
strategies for disaster risk reduction
 Weather related events already account for 70% of
disasters
 Disasters are a major factor contributing to endemic
poverty in many parts of the world.
The Practical Challenge
The conceptual part is easy
Translating concepts to action isn’t
“Buzzwords” abound -- but what does DRR
or “adaptation” mean?
Practical Methodologies are Essential
The Risk to Resilience Project
 Case Studies
 Rawlpindi, Pakistan
 Rohini River, U.P.
 Bagmati, Nepal-Bihar
 Collaboration
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ISET
ISET-Nepal
IIASA
KCL
WII
GEAG
PIEDAR
The Methodology
 Shared Learning Dialogues (SLDs) to translate climate
change projections into locally meaningful terms
 Detailed vulnerability analyses
 Identification of DRR options through SLDs
 Qualitative identification of major cost and benefit areas
through transects, SLDs, secondary data, etc…
 Detailed survey of site characteristics, assets, etc…
 Downscaling of Climate Change Scenarios
 Hydrologic modeling to identify impacts
 Backward and forward looking Cost-Benefit analysis
Shared Learning Process
Adapted from Lewin 1946: “Action research and minority problems”
Local Experience
Scientific Knowledge
Learning
Shared
Learning
Shared
Learning
Shared
Learning
Act
Act
Act
Monitor, document
& reflect
Monitor, document
& reflect
Monitor, document
& reflect
Time
Sample Quantitative Results
Cost Benefit Results @ 10% discount rate
Uttar Pradesh Flood Management
Emba nkme nt Construction (with externalities
included – without about 4)
Emba nkme nt Maintenance
Distributed mix of community-based interventions
Uttar Pradesh Drought Management
Groundwater Irrigation (risk reduction alone)
Insurance
Comb ined
Rawlpin di Urban Flood Management
Expressway/Channel
Community pond
River improvement
Early Warning (gold plated)
Relocation/Restoration
Approxima te
C/B Ratio
Clim ate
Change
1
2
2.5
Declin es?
Robu st
Increases
1.6
2
2.2
Increases (2)
Declin es (1.2)
Stable
1.88
8.55
25
0.96
1.34
Declin es?
????
Improves?
???
Improves?
Results of detailed CBAs indicate
investment in risk reduction can generate
high rates of return
True but overly simplistic
Not all approaches are resilient
under changing climatic conditions
Not all approaches benefit
everyone - particularly the poor
Not all DRR is robust with different
assumptions & Climate Change
 Differing levels of
information on events
required (probabilities)
 Sensitivity to thresholds
(embankments)
 Potential for negative
externalities
Not all All Approaches Benefit Everyone
 Structural protection -- displaces impacts on
those outside protective structures & can lead
to behaviors that increase vulnerability
 Insurance -- hard to get down to the poorest
 Early warning -- can’t always reach key groups
 Groundwater development -- particularly
benefits middle farmers
Most approaches involve social tradeoffs
Transect 3: Settlements along Lal Bakaiya River
Transect 2: Settlements along Bagmati River
Transect 1: The Bairgania Bund
Qualitative CBA Transects
Transect 1: The Bairgania Ring Bund
(+,
(
+, -
(+
-)
(+
(+,
- - -)
(+, - - -)
- - -)
+ +,- )
+, -)
+, -
-
Transect 2: Settlements along Bagmati River
(
(
+ +,-)
(
- - -)
+ + +)
Transect 3: Settlements along Lal Bakaiya River
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(+
+,
-)
- - -) (+ +,- -)
(+,- -)
Robust approaches
 address the systemic factors creating
vulnerability
 respond to recurrent sources of variability
 have low dependence on specific climate
projections
Many such approaches
are community based
Questionable DRR Approaches
 Warning signals that DRR may not work
include strategies that involve:
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Dependence on specific event characteristics
Long lead times
High initial investments
Long-term institutional dependence
Large distributional consequences
Climate Risk Management Requires
 A mix of strategies
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Distributed CBDRM as well as centralized
Systemic as well as targeted
Financial & institutional as well as infrastructure
Risk spreading as well as risk reduction
 Approaches that are tailored to specific
contexts and sources of vulnerability
 Tangibility rather than generalizations