Transcript Slide 1

DECENTRALIZATION VS.
DEMOCRATIZATION:
THE CASE OF MACEDONIA
Key highlights of the presentation
Macedonia as a successful story of the
Western Balkans
Badly Envisioned and Managed
Decentralization Endangers Ethnic
Relations and Democratization of
Macedonia, USA & EU attention needed?
Multiethnic Macedonia:
a success story
Unlike other republics peacefully disassociates from Federal
Yugoslavia in 1991 despite Serbian nationalism
Withholds Greek pressure and embargos and reaches an interim
agreement normalizing the relations (1991-1995)
Tackles interethnic relations through the institutions of the system
thus moderating Albanian and Macedonian nationalism; e.g.
multiethnic government coalition a feature of the political system
Manages well the Kosovo refugee crises in 1999 despite tensions
and inadequate international response
2001 crises spilled over from Kosovo results with low intensity
conflict ending with the Ohrid Framework Agreement (hereinafter
OFA); majority of the population dismisses nationalist rhetoric,
remains calm throughout
New government coalition harmonizes ethnic relations through the
implementation of OFA and works on the EU integration, but
problems remain
Continuum of difficulties since 1991:
socio-economic problems at the fore
Bad economic policies in socialist times result in a underdeveloped
economy; very low base for independent Macedonia
Disintegration of Federal Yugoslavia in the 1990’s results in the loss
of the main market for Macedonian products
Greek economic embargo
UN sanctions against Serbia and Montenegro main trading partner
Moderate level of nomenklatura change; unsound economic policies
in the 1990’s, slow and ineffective privatization, low level of FDI
Burdened by the refugees from the wars in Bosnia and especially
Kosovo (appx. 300.000)
Domestic crises in 2001
Important data for Macedonia
Total area: 25,713 square km
Total population: 2.0 million
Growth rate: 0.4%
Rural: 40.2%
Urban: 59.8%
Ethnic composition
2.66%
3.85%
Macedonians
1.78%
2.36%
Albanians
25.17%
Turks
Roma
Serbs
Others
64.18%
Source: Census 2002, Statistical Office of Macedonia
GDP per capita in US$
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001








2002
1,742
2,200
1,705
2,100
1,709
1,732
1,781
2,000
1,900
1,848
1,800
1,924
1,700
1,830
1,600
1,835
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

2003
2,192 (estimate)
Alarming Figures
The recovery of the Macedonian economy in 2003 stopped in 2004.
After 2001 decline of 4.5%, the real GDP in 2002 was barely positive at 0.9%. In
2003 real
GDP grew by 3.2%. GDP per capita = US$ 2,192. GDP in Q1 of 2004 fell by 3.6%.
Projected real GDP growth for 2004 was 4.0% - unlikely to be met.
The upward trend of the industrial output since 2002 was halted in 2004. In the
period January
– May 2004 it dropped by 24.6% relative to the same period of previous year.
Unemployment rate in 2003: 36.7%; Employment rate in 2003: 34.5%
Number of employed persons at the end of Q1 2004: 263,0312, down by 5.2% on
annual basis.
Number of unemployed persons at the end of May 2004: 395,693 - up by 3.0%.
Nominal average net wage per worker in April 2004: Denar 12,551 or 250 US $ but
23 % of employees have not received wage in April 2004
30.2% of the population lived below the poverty line (USD $75/month) in 2002 - an
increase from 22.7% in 2001
The “gray economy” is estimated to be between 15 and 42% of GDP
Alarming Unemployment Data
400,000
395,000
390,000
385,000
380,000
375,000
370,000
365,000
Source: Employment Fund of Macedonia
V
IV
III
II
I.2004
XII.2003
XI
X
IX
VIII
VII
VI
V
IV
III
II
I.2003
XII.2002
360,000
Crucial Challenges
Decentralization
Reverse economic downturn
Judiciary reform
Public administration reforms
Continue battle against corruption,
improve governance, reduce “gray
economy”
Improve legislation, attract FDI
Decentralization process in
Macedonia encompasses:
Law on Local Self-Government
Law on Fiscal Decentralization
Law on Municipal Budgets
Law on Territorial Boundaries of
Municipalities?
What are the problematic issues of
the new law on territorial
boundaries of the municipalities
a broad public debate on the new territorial boundaries of the municipalities;
consultations involving local officials organized in the Association of the
Units of Local Government (ZELS);
taking into consideration concerns by foreign and domestic experts;
taking into consideration the will of the people, ignoring in particular the
expressed objections of 41 municipalities for redrawing the district
boundaries
taking into consideration the position of the opposition parties
taking into consideration article 3, section 2 of the Ohrid Framework
Agreement which stipulates that "the revision of the municipal boundaries
will be effectuated by the local and national authorities with international
participation"
taking into consideration that Macedonia has signed and ratified the
European Charter of Local Self-Government which states that "changes in
local authority boundaries shall not be made without prior consultation of the
local communities possibly by means of referendum where this is permitted
by statute" (article 5)
The most contentious questions are the
proposed new boundaries of the
municipalities of Struga, Kicevo and Skopje.
MACEDONIAN FEARS- In Tetovo and Gostivar, after the democratization of
the country in 1991 local power was taken by Tetovo Albanians and all
Macedonians in charge of the public enterprises in the town were replaced
by ethnic Albanians.
ALBANIAN FEARS- local Albanians are concerned that if the 1996
boundaries are maintained the areas where they live great numbers such as
Zajas, or Veleshta will remain underdeveloped and they will not have
access to public resources.
THE QUESTION OF SKOPJE-Skopje on the other hand, is a capital city
and the question of the “bilingualism” concerns both questions about access
to public resources and services in the native language, as well as symbolic
status of the city. Macedonians fear not only that the city resources will be
wasted on providing services in Albanian language, but also that the capital
will somehow lose its Macedonian identity. The capital city holds a
significant symbolic power to both communities and that although Skopje
Albanians do not constitute 20 % access to services and public resources in
their native language is an important matter for building new realities in
Macedonia based on the Ohrid Framework Agreement.
Map of Kichevo Area
Kicevo town, Vranestica and Drugovo are Macedonian majority municipalities,
while Zajas and Oslomej are predominantly ethnic Albanian. Adjoining these five
municipalities into a new one would make Kichevo a majority Albanian
municipality. Macedonians from the town of Kichevo fear that many of them will
lose the opportunities in the public sector.
Statistical Data on the Kichevo Area
Municipality 1948
1994
Maced. % Alb. % Other %
Kicevo
8,761
27,543 58.55
26.12
15.33
Drugovo
9,824
3,555
87.43
3.68
8.89
Oslomej
7,401
9,170
1.74
98.16
0.10
Vranestica
4,203
1,650
79.94
0.48
19.57
Zajas
5,949
10,055 2.79
97.12
0.09
Total
36,138 51,973 40.39
50.22
9.39
MAP OF STRUGA AREA
The new map of
municipality of Struga
Old Map(1996).
Macedonian majority
municipalities are in red. The
Albanian majority are in green.
Statistical Data on the Struga Area
Municipality
2002
Macedon. % Albanians %
Struga
36892
17686 48%
Lukovo
1502
1496 99%
Labunishta
8935
1149
Veleshta
8156
Vevchani
2433
15324 41.5%
13% 4935
55%
8072 99%
2419 99%
Delogozhdi
7884
7698 99%
However, note the statistical data for the native language (mother tongue) in the
municipality of Labunishta and Stuga.
Labunishta census data according to native language of the residents
Macedonian speakers
Macedonians
4872 82%
371, 16%
Struga census data according to native language of the residents
Macedonian speakers
Macedonians
19939 54%
17686, 48%
The Road Ahead-What Should be Done
We would like to see a well prepared law on the local government
boundaries taking into consideration both local and international
perspectives as well as the will and needs of all citizens in the country
regardless of their ethnic origin.
Decentralization is one of the main instruments of democracy in the
practice and protection of human rights and freedoms. Decentralization
should begin and end with active participation of citizens through their
common will.
This law is the most difficult step in implementing the 2001 Ohrid
Framework Agreement that pulled Macedonia back from the brink of civil
war. The Law on Territorial Organization should have marked a triumph for
political sense in a region where politicians have too often been seduced by
nationalism
The law proposed by the new government is no such triumph.
Unfortunately, the international community has largely stood by the
government’s position on the new law and on the referendum effectively
putting it in an uncomfortable position vis-à-vis the majority opinion in the
country supporting bad policy making.