Transcript decentralization vs. democratization

DECENTRALIZATION VS.
DEMOCRATIZATION:
THE CASE OF MACEDONIA
Key highlights of the presentation
• Macedonia as a successful story of the
Western Balkans
• Badly Envisioned and Managed
Decentralization Endangers Ethnic
Relations and Democratization of
Macedonia, USA & EU attention
needed?
Multiethnic Macedonia:
a success story
• Unlike other republics peacefully disassociates from Federal Yugoslavia in 1991
despite Serbian nationalism
• Withholds Greek pressure and embargos and reaches an interim agreement
normalizing the relations (1991-1995)
• Tackles interethnic relations through the institutions of the system thus
moderating Albanian and Macedonian nationalism; e.g. multiethnic government
coalition a feature of the political system
• Manages well the Kosovo refugee crises in 1999 despite tensions and inadequate
international response
• 2001 crises spilled over from Kosovo results with low intensity conflict ending
with the Ohrid Framework Agreement (hereinafter OFA); majority of the
population dismisses nationalist rhetoric, remains calm throughout
• New government coalition harmonizes ethnic relations through the
implementation of OFA and works on the EU integration, but problems remain
Continuum of difficulties since 1991:
socio-economic problems at the fore
• Bad economic policies in socialist times result in a underdeveloped
economy; very low base for independent Macedonia
• Disintegration of Federal Yugoslavia in the 1990’s results in the loss of the
main market for Macedonian products
• Greek economic embargo
• UN sanctions against Serbia and Montenegro main trading partner
• Moderate level of nomenklatura change; unsound economic policies in
the 1990’s, slow and ineffective privatization, low level of FDI
• Burdened by the refugees from the wars in Bosnia and especially Kosovo
(appx. 300.000)
• Domestic crises in 2001
Important data for Macedonia
• Total area: 25,713 square km
• Total population: 2.0 million
• Growth rate: 0.4%
• Rural: 40.2%
• Urban: 59.8%
Ethnic composition
Source: Census 2002, Statistical Office of Macedonia
GDP per capita in US$
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

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





1,742
1,705
1,709
1,732
1,781
1,848
1,924
1,830
1,835

2003
2,192 (estimate)
Alarming Figures
• The recovery of the Macedonian economy in 2003 stopped in 2004.
• After 2001 decline of 4.5%, the real GDP in 2002 was barely positive at 0.9%. In
2003 real
GDP grew by 3.2%. GDP per capita = US$ 2,192. GDP in Q1 of 2004 fell by 3.6%.
Projected real GDP growth for 2004 was 4.0% - unlikely to be met.
• The upward trend of the industrial output since 2002 was halted in 2004. In the
period January
– May 2004 it dropped by 24.6% relative to the same period of previous year.
• Unemployment rate in 2003: 36.7%; Employment rate in 2003: 34.5%
• Number of employed persons at the end of Q1 2004: 263,0312, down by 5.2% on
annual basis.
• Number of unemployed persons at the end of May 2004: 395,693 - up by 3.0%.
• Nominal average net wage per worker in April 2004: Denar 12,551 or 250 US $
but 23 % of employees have not received wage in April 2004
• 30.2% of the population lived below the poverty line (USD $75/month) in 2002 an increase from 22.7% in 2001
• The “gray economy” is estimated to be between 15 and 42% of GDP
Alarming Unemployment Data
Source: Employment Fund of Macedonia
Crucial Challenges
• Decentralization
• Reverse economic downturn
• Judiciary reform
• Public administration reforms
• Continue battle against corruption,
improve governance, reduce “gray
economy”
• Improve legislation, attract FDI
Decentralization process in
Macedonia encompasses:
• Law on Local Self-Government
• Law on Fiscal Decentralization
• Law on Municipal Budgets
• Law on Territorial Boundaries of
Municipalities?
What are the problematic issues of
the new law on territorial boundaries
of the municipalities
•
•
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a broad public debate on the new territorial boundaries of the municipalities;
consultations involving local officials organized in the Association of the Units
of Local Government (ZELS);
taking into consideration concerns by foreign and domestic experts;
taking into consideration the will of the people, ignoring in particular the
expressed objections of 41 municipalities for redrawing the district boundaries
taking into consideration the position of the opposition parties
taking into consideration article 3, section 2 of the Ohrid Framework Agreement
which stipulates that "the revision of the municipal boundaries will be
effectuated by the local and national authorities with international
participation"
taking into consideration that Macedonia has signed and ratified the European
Charter of Local Self-Government which states that "changes in local authority
boundaries shall not be made without prior consultation of the local
communities possibly by means of referendum where this is permitted by
statute" (article 5)
The most contentious questions are the
proposed new boundaries of the municipalities
of Struga, Kicevo and Skopje.
• MACEDONIAN FEARS- In Tetovo and Gostivar, after the democratization of the
country in 1991 local power was taken by Tetovo Albanians and all Macedonians in
charge of the public enterprises in the town were replaced by ethnic Albanians.
• ALBANIAN FEARS- local Albanians are concerned that if the 1996 boundaries are
maintained the areas where they live great numbers such as Zajas, or Veleshta will
remain underdeveloped and they will not have access to public resources.
• THE QUESTION OF SKOPJE-Skopje on the other hand, is a capital city and the
question of the “bilingualism” concerns both questions about access to public
resources and services in the native language, as well as symbolic status of the city.
Macedonians fear not only that the city resources will be wasted on providing
services in Albanian language, but also that the capital will somehow lose its
Macedonian identity. The capital city holds a significant symbolic power to both
communities and that although Skopje Albanians do not constitute 20 % access to
services and public resources in their native language is an important matter for
building new realities in Macedonia based on the Ohrid Framework Agreement.
Map of Kichevo Area
Kicevo town, Vranestica and Drugovo are Macedonian majority municipalities, while
Zajas and Oslomej are predominantly ethnic Albanian. Adjoining these five municipalities
into a new one would make Kichevo a majority Albanian municipality. Macedonians from
the town of Kichevo fear that many of them will lose the opportunities in the public
sector.
Statistical Data on the Kichevo Area
Municipality 1948
1994
Maced. %
Alb. %
Other %
Kicevo
8,761
27,543
58.55
26.12
15.33
Drugovo
9,824
3,555
87.43
3.68
8.89
Oslomej
7,401
9,170
1.74
98.16
0.10
Vranestica
4,203
1,650
79.94
0.48
19.57
Zajas
5,949
10,055
2.79
97.12
0.09
Total
36,138
51,973
40.39
50.22
9.39
MAP OF STRUGA AREA
The new map of
municipality of Struga
Macedonian majority
municipalities are in red. The
Albanian majority are in green.
Old Map(1996).
Statistical Data on the Struga Area
Municipality
2002
Macedon. %
Albanians %
Struga
36892
17686 48%
15324 41.5%
Lukovo
1502
1496 99%
Labunishta
8935
1149
Veleshta
8156
Vevchani
2433
Delogozhdi
7884
13%
4935
55%
8072 99%
2419 99%
7698 99%
However, note the statistical data for the native language (mother tongue) in the
municipality of Labunishta and Stuga.
Labunishta census data according to native language of the residents
Macedonian speakers
Macedonians
4872 82%
371, 16%
Struga census data according to native language of the residents
Macedonian speakers
Macedonians
19939 54%
17686, 48%
The Road Ahead-What Should be Done
• We would like to see a well prepared law on the local government
boundaries taking into consideration both local and international
perspectives as well as the will and needs of all citizens in the country
regardless of their ethnic origin.
• Decentralization is one of the main instruments of democracy in the
practice and protection of human rights and freedoms. Decentralization
should begin and end with active participation of citizens through their
common will.
• This law is the most difficult step in implementing the 2001 Ohrid
Framework Agreement that pulled Macedonia back from the brink of civil
war. The Law on Territorial Organization should have marked a triumph for
political sense in a region where politicians have too often been seduced by
nationalism
• The law proposed by the new government is no such triumph.
Unfortunately, the international community has largely stood by the
government’s position on the new law and on the referendum effectively
putting it in an uncomfortable position vis-à-vis the majority opinion in the
country supporting bad policy making.