Transcript Macedonia

Macro Developments of
MACEDONIA
Presented by:
Denislav Dyakov
Magdalena Tsolova
Overview of Macedonian
economic situation
 vulnerable to economic developments in Europe
and the Region
 the least developed of the Yugoslav republics
 Started maintaining economic stability recently
Goods Market – GDP
Growth by sectors:
For 2007:
•- retail sector – 10.2%
•- construction - 9.7%
•- agriculture – 7.2%
•- industrial output – 8.3%
8
6
4
2
-2
-4
-6
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
0
•GDP by sectors:
•- agriculture – 11.4%
•- industry – 27.2%
•- services -61.4%
•GDP(PPP) – $18.97bil
Goods Market – GDP cntd.
Goods Market - BoP
2007
Current Account:
-596.83
Goods:
-1.629.75
Imports:
-4.979.24
Exports:
3.349.49
Services: (Net)
34.98
Current Transfers: 1.382.96
Capital Account:
4.91
Financial Account:
633.93
2008
-1.209.55
-2.551.83
-6.522.69
3.970.86
2.17
1.448.28
-18.42
1.227.94
*Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) 2007
2007
2008
Goods Market - FDI
• FDI 2006(in millions) : €345
• FDI 2007(in millions) : €240
• Most important contributors to FDI in
Macedonia:
– Austria –
– Slovenia –
– Bulgaria –
– France –
27.4%
16.1%
13.8%
9.1%
Banking System
Banking system in the Republic of Macedonia
comprises 18 banks and 12 saving houses
Main features
 Banking activities in the Republic of Macedonia are regulated under
the Banking Law
 There are no legal obstacles for entrance of foreign banks in the
Macedonian financial market;
 Foreign banks are also enabled to perform financial activities in the
Republic of Macedonia by opening their branches;
Asset Market
 High inflation increase in 2008
 Sharp increase in foreign exchange reserves in 2007
 Increased credit growth
 Credit control through increased reserve requirements or
capital requirements on risky loans
Labour Market
 37% official rate of
unemployment
 “grey” economy
 Problems with human
capital
Unemployment
by
duration
2000
2003
2004
Less then a
month
12,451
9,600
5,207
1-5
12,336
16,700
18,513
6-11
18,834
20,700
21,342
12-17
12,108
18,400
20,466
18-23
20,407
10,600
14,399
2 years
3,195
2,100
2,614
3 years
24,399
36,900
27,791
More than 4
years
157,982
200,900
198,955
83.33%
85.12%
85.43%
63.38%
65.59%
65.43%
Long term
unemploy
ment
Discouraged
workers
Conclusions:
• The Global Financial Crisis will have a
negative effect on the following issues:
– Transition from planned economy to a liberal
market economy.
– Shrinking domestic market(Greek trade
embargo & Western Trade embargo,
decreased demand)
– Worsen business climate, lower FDI
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