Transcript Ecological_processes

Ecological processes in a changing
climate: winners and losers
Third US GLOBEC Pan Regional
Workshop
20 February 2009
J. Runge, presenter
Group Members
Runge
Davis
Bograd
Capotondi
Gangopadhya
Juanes
Miller
Plourde
Smith
Tynan
Three time frames
1) What happened in this program? (what we learned in
the past 15 yrs). What do you want to highlight in this
theme?
2) Right now: what are recommendations for Pan
Regional Synthesis? What do we want to do in PRS and
see as outcomes?
3) The future: 5 years from now what do we want
GLOBEC to have done: GLOBEC’s legacy, its impact on
future activities
The climate drivers
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Warming
Stratification
Ice Extent
Winds (upwelling, transport, mixing)
Advection
Increased CO2 and ocean acidification
Second Pan Regional Synthesis Workshop
What we have learned: ecological
processes winners and losers
How to know and predict “winners and losers”
• Modeling tools: development of coupled
physical biological modeling
• Advances in use of indicators to forecast
ecosystem processes
• Data base on abundance, distributions and
processes for future reference
• Advances in tools for measurement (acoustic,
video systems, etc.)
What we have learned: Phenology
• Timing and magnitude of primary production
- NW Atlantic: stratification due to low salinity
and spring and fall blooms
- CC: Upwelling events
-NEP: Freshwater inputs due to shifts in GoA
low
- Southern Ocean: effects of warming on ice
extent
What we have learned: ecological
processes winners and losers
• Primary Production: changes in species
composition
– Shifts to dinoflagellate from diatom dominance in
NW Atlantic
– Shifts to smaller autotrophs in deep ocean. N
fixers gain in high CO2 environment
– Shifts towards diatoms in waters off Peru
– Don’t really know impact of warming and CO2 in
high latitude seasonal environments
What we have learned: Processes
involving zooplankton
• Zooplankton diversity and population
dynamics
– Changes in cold and warm water copepod species
assemblages in upwelling areas off W. Coast
– Increases in small copepod abundance related to
low salinity and spring and fall blooms in NWA
– Changes in timing of life cycles
– Shifts from krill to copepod and salp dominance in
SO food webs
What we have learned: Recruitment
processes
– Salmon recruitment processes: eg. Coho salmon
and cold water zooplankton in w. coast upwelling
– Haddock and cod indices related to zooplankton
indices in NW Atlantic)
– Transport of larval stages to nursery areas
– Development of the modeling tools to integrate
complexity of processes for prediction of
environmental influences on recruitment with a
mechanistic understandin
Present: outcomes of the Pan Regional
Synthesis
• Development of coupled physical biological
modeling to forecast climate forcing of species
population dynamics
• Development of ecosystem indicators:
Forecasts of climate forcing on ecological
processes and indicators
• Approaches to understanding and presenting
uncertainty
• Synthesis data sets compiled and archived
Present: Synthesis of the species
centric and trophic centric approaches
• End to end modeling: forecasts of changes to
trophic structure of ecosystems
• A synthesis of the two approaches: how to use
the coupled models to inform climate forcing on
E2E trophic structure
• How do species matter: the impacts of changes of
key target species in wasp-waist type trophic
structures (e.g. Calanus and herring in NWA
ecoystems; role of lipids)
• Steele et al. Globec International Newsletter.
Volume 14 (1). April, 2008
Present: outcomes of the Pan Regional
Synthesis
• How to facilitate coordination,
intercomparisons, syntheses among
projects in Pan Regional Synthesis?
Are annual workshops enough?
• How to document the GLOBEC
legacy?
The future: The GLOBEC legacy
• Coupled physical biological modelling as a tool
for mechanistic understanding of climate
forcing on ecological processes
• Forecasting abilities including uncertainty
• Forecasts and ecological indicators for future
testing: winners and losers
• Foundation for future large scale programs:
e.g. IMBER/BASIN/ CAMEO/ICED/CLIVAR
GLOBEC Legacy:
Ecosystem approach to
management
management policy
precautionary principle
the fishing communities
Including oceanography
and earth system science
(Adapted from E.O. Wilson, 1998)
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Modeling integrates knowledge across scientific disciplines. Need for
collaboration among disciplines.
Simulations provide predictions that can be tested against data
The computer as a medium for communicating to non-experts and
experts the complex synthesis of system knowledge
The future: The GLOBEC legacy: how to
collaborate in multidiscplinary research
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Respect
Willingness to share
Cooperation
Communication