Transcript Calanus - U.S. GLOBEC Georges Bank

US GLOBEC NWA Program Phase 4B Synthesis Workshop
10/2-3/2006 – 507 Clark Laboratory, WHOI
• Logistics
– Continental breakfast today & tomorrow
– Lunches today and tomorrow
– Dinner tonight, Capt Kidd
– Breakout rooms: Clark 509 and Clark 5 Library room.
• Workshop Goals
– Present early progress
– Establish communication links/needs
– Larger program goals
• Agenda
US GLOBEC NWA Program Workshop
10/2-3/2006 – 507 Clark Laboratory, WHOI
Agenda
Mon, Oct 2
9:05-12:30 Project talks
12:30-1:30 Lunch
1:30-4:00
Intra-inter-project communications
4:00-4:15
Plenary – Overview of Major Themes
4:15-5:30
Working groups discuss themes
6:00
Dinner at Capt Kidd
Tues, Oct 3
9:00-11:00
Working groups discuss themes
11:00-12:00 Plenary discussion of themes
Next meeting, Prog. Oce. volume
US GLOBEC NWA Program
Overall Objective
To understand the B/P processes controlling recruitment
of cod and haddock and their dominant prey species.
Georges Bank Haddock: Biomass at Age
Not just Fish!
GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis
FVCOM-NPZDCopepod Dynamics
Calanus
Diapause
Larval Fish
Dynamics
Basin-scale
Calanus IBM
Data/model synthesis working group
Global-Basin-Regional interactions
Processes Controlling Abundance of Dominant Copepod Species on Georges
Bank: Local Dynamics and Large-Scale Forcing
Davis, Beardsley, Chen, Ji, Durbin, Townsend, Runge, Flagg
Website: http://www.whoi.edu/sites/G4Bcopepods
Objectives:
• To understand the biological-physical mechanisms controlling the
development of 3D spatial patterns of lower food web (NPZD) and
dominant copepod species on GB/GOM (days to years).
• Examine local-dynamics and external forcing.
• Determine the relative importance of food, predation, and advection.
• Use FVCOM together with GLOBEC and other data sets, to conduct
targeted numerical experiments: sustainability, SW and SS intrusions,
catastrophic warming.
Physical forcing
FVCOM Grid
Large-scale forcing
Local dynamics
Calanus
Slope Water Intrusions
SS Water Intrusions
Upwelling
250
0.5
300
0.0
350
400
-0.5
450
-1.0
-1.5
1992
500
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
General Hypothesis
The seasonal evolution of characteristic spatial patterns of
each dominant copepod species on GB/GOM is predictable
from the interaction between its characteristic life-history
traits and the biological and physical environment.
Calanus
Pseudocalanus Temora, Oithona,
Centropages
FVCOM Integrated
Model System
Concentration-based
Food-web and
Copepod Species
Models
Physics
Nutrients and
Phytoplankton
Copepod
Species
Input
data
FVCOM
model
Model
Output
3D Distributions of T, S, u, v, w, N, P, μZ, D, and
copepod species over the period 1995-1999
Major Themes
1. What are the key mechanisms controlling recruitment success the
target species? e.g. the bonanza year classes of haddock (1998, 2003)
2. What are the physical and biological processes that link global/basin
and the GB/GOM region? e.g. intrusions, warming, winds
3. What is the relative importance of top-down vs. bottom-up forcing of
GOM/GB ecosystem?
4. What are the big ideas to come out of GLOBEC NWA?
5. What are the products/transitions of GLOBEC NWA? e.g. operational
products, lead-ins to new scientific programs.
Chen et al…..
GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis
FVCOM-NPZDCopepod Dynamics
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Detailed 3D analysis of physical-biological mechanisms
Lower food-web dynamics (NPZD)
Dominant copepod species population dynamics
Regional model (Halifax to New Jersey)
Local forcing and large scale forcing through boundaries
Mechanistic understanding of how GOM/GB ecosystem
responds to local and remote forcing
• Provides copepod prey fields for larval fish modeling
GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis
Larval Fish
Dynamics
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Regional models of Norwegian Shelf and GB/GOM
Basin-scale model (ROMS) connecting these regions
Detailed individual based models of cod and haddock
Examines effect of intrusions in these regions
Requires copepod concentrations generated by FVCOM
Develops full-life cycle models for cod and haddock
GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis
Calanus
Diapause
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Data analysis and IBM modeling of Calanus
Environmental factors controlling dormancy
Compares data from different regions (GB/GOM, SS, GSL)
Develops and uses IBMs of Calanus dormancy
Inter-annual and long term changes
GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis
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Basin-scale model (ROMS) of NWA with IBM of Calanus
Climate and circulation on Calanus transport onto GB
Compares high and low NAO years
1988-1999, interannual variation in seeding and production
Long-term physical, biological, SST data sets
Basin-scale
Calanus IBM
GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis
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Working group on climate impacts on NWA ecosystems
Climatologists, oceanographers, fisheries scientists
Leads to operational tools for management
Focus on freshwater intrusions in NWA shelf and slope
Retrospective data analysis
Data/model synthesis workshops
Global-Basin-Regional interactions