Transcript Tuesday-Group_2

OUEVRE (Per Jonsson, revisions by F. Werner
• What have we learned? What
models (or other approaches to
synthesis) exist or are needed and
of what type?
• How does climate influence
variability of recruitment in these
systems?
Model Resolution-Temporal/Spatial
Issues of Model Integration
THE SEA
SPECIES IN THE MODEL
Birds/mammals
Bacteria
Number of Species
Number of State
Variables
Detail of
Resolution
Nested 3D physical models, linked to climate models
u,v,w,Kz,T...
3D-coupled NPZD model
(primary and secondary production)
(Prey fields)
3D-coupled ZLCM
(distribution and abundance of
individual zooplankton species)
(Prey fields)
3D-coupled fish larvae
trophodynamic model
(growth and survival of fish larvae)
Environmental conditions for recruitment
What are the critical characteristics that make
these species useful for pan regional comparisons?
• Restate the question: What evidence do we
have that knowledge of the life history
characteristics and physiological attributes
of the individual species is essential to
understanding the ecosystem dynamics?
• Consensus is that detailed knowledge of the
individual life histories of zooplankton is
important
Copepod Life History Trade-offs
60
50
40
Egg production
30
20
10
0
Pseudocalanus Calanus finmarchicus
.
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Egg survival
The species question continued
• We have approaches and detailed knowledge to
answer questions of climate forcing on recruitment
of the target species
• During synthesis, we need to identify how our
knowledge can be applied to the broad question of
climate forcing on ecosystem and function. Do the
target species responses representative of
ecosystem structure and function. Will inclusion
of other key species now identified be sufficient?
How much simplification can we re-introduce?
Data gaps
• Identification of key species not originally
targeted (e.g. pteropods)
• Microbial components for NPZ
• Nutrient and phytoplankton data for model
validation
The overarching question
• Climate forcing mechanisms: local vs remote
- Freshwater effects on density driven circulation and
stratification
- Winds
• Model approaches: common technical issues
linking the coupled models
• Different life histories- responses to forcing:
compare and contrast among regions
• Similarities in geomorphology; eg. GB and
Antarctica translate into similarities in forcing and
ecosystem responses?
Biological challenges
1. Growth and reproduction dependency on
food availability
2. Understanding the processes determining
entry and exit from fall-winter dormancy
3. Mortality rates
4. Vertical distribution of life stages
Biological challenges…1
Description of linkage between primary production and copepod
growth and reproduction
Calanus finmarchicus: Relationship of egg production to
phytoplankton biomass
Durbin et al. 2003: Gulf of Maine
Runge et al. (2006): Georges Bank
coupled ecosystem – sea-ice ocean circulation model
Comparisons to satellite-derived fields:
St. Lawrence discharge effect
model
satellite
SST
AVHRR
Chl a
SeaWIFS
kCDOM
SeaWIFS
vs
Chl a
3rd – 6th of August 1998
Le Fouest et al., submitted
March 95
March 99
Huret M, Chen C
coupled ecosystem – sea-ice ocean circulation model
Observed vs simulated chlorophyll a biomass
1997
1998
1999
Spring
Fall
observed
predicted
Chifflet et al., in prep
coupled ecosystem – sea-ice ocean circulation model
Observed vs simulated nitrate concentration
1997
1998
1999
Spring
Fall
observed
predicted
Chifflet et al., in prep
1995
surface layer
mid-layer
bottom layer